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Northern Light

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As the new year is almost upon on, its surely time for a quick thread where we all take our best shot at what significant changes will occur in 2018, in the realm of government and/or policy.

Aspirations/Hopes are also fair, but do differentiate pipe dreams/fantasies from real 'bets' on the year ahead.

That said, here's my take.

********************

Municipal Politics:

Mayor Tory re-elected.

Council shifts to the left, sightly, w/a 4-vote shift, from the last election, resulting in a 23-vote progressive bloc on council out of 47 seats, plus the Mayor . The 'right' on Council will be smaller, (-1), the middle will hold the balance of power.

Tory will tack to the left-centre.


*******************

Provincial Politics

Too Close to Call at this time ( a cop out, I know)

But I will call a minority government.

Policy wise, based on the Tory platform I expect among the most progressive policy shifts in a generation.

Much will be leaving recent moves unchanged.

But I expect:

Meaningful further moves towards Universal Pharmacare, with coverage for out-patient cancer drugs a given, seeing as its even in the Tory platform.

Likewise, I expect some expansion of dental care, either to low-income seniors, or making it universal for all youth, similar to the recent prescription drug coverage.

I also anticipate significant new funding announcements in regards to transit infrastructure.

******

Federally

Look for at least some upward movement from the NDP as Trudeau can stay high forever and Scheer does not strike me as gaining traction.

Do look for significant new National Park creation as the government is low on time to meet a key promise and Canadian international commitments in this regard.

Also expect some meaningful funding for VIA HFR

Finally, expect a 'surprise' progressive item on either Health or Income transfer benefits.

Lets look back in a year and see how I did!

The City will, as a result, move faster than currently anticipating on cycling projects, TTC ridership growth and Vision Zero safety improvements.
 
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Municipally: Mammo will be re-elected....fml (or whatever the kids are saying these days...smh?)
Tory will become even less "like Ford with a better suit" (or whatever the haters are saying these days)

Provincially: The NDP slide further into irrelevance by out-Hudaking the Brown PCs who will try to out-Wynne the stale ones. Straight minority government of a yet unguessable composition. First Green elected; embarks on futile mission in teaching the rest of them what politics is supposed to be about.

Federally: A member of cabinet resigns in disgrace. Take a pick. I'm actually placing monetary bets on this one.
Scheer becomes indistinguishable from Harper.....no, wait, he just smiled again....never mind.
Singh becomes super useful in his continued role as seat less leader....just kidding.
Minister Freeland loses her mind dealing with the Yanks regarding NAFTA. This one I'd also bet on.
 
Municipal:

-Tory is re-elected by a large majority, with Doug only retaining his base if he does choose to run again
-A lot more turnover in council than in 2014. How much I am not sure
-Doug's sympathy for Trump make him toxic to many voters

Provincial:

-The PC's win a minority government, getting a lot of Liberal support due to their shift to the left. I can't see the NDP doing much of anything
-Disgruntled PC supporters fail to hurt the party, despite voting for smaller ones
-DMW wins the PC nomination and a seat in the provincial election

Federal

-At least one cabinet minister is replaced
-The NDP fails to hold Tom Mulcair's seat, which goes to the Liberals
-The CPC also loses at least one seat to the Liberals in a by-election
-Scheer and Singh continue to be a liability to their respective parties
-More MP's get accused of sexual misconduct or other bad behavior
 
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Municipally:

Etobitrump files for mayor on the first day of campaigning, but will not be on the ballot by election day. Tory will eke out a thin win against a surprising progressive challenger.

Provincially:

Razor thin liberal minority caused by an inability of PCs to make meaningful dent in fortress Toronto. NDP wildly irrelevant, Two of three leaders gone by end of the year.

Federally:

Singh still won't have a seat by Dec 31st, Trudeau will lose two cabinet members to scandal, Scheer will fend off a minor party revolt and stumble into 2019.

US:

President Ryan.
 
If the PCs do win a Minority, could we see an NDP/LIB coalition? Or would that be hard for Horwath to justify given she's essentially campaigning only against the Liberals?
 
Easiest First

Municipal

John Tory wins big - over 60%. Doug Ford drops out in early summer.

Press will start going after Tory - both because they are partisan, but also because the appearance of a close race might sell more papers.

All Councillors seeking re-election win.
 
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Federal
  • Conservatives and NDP continue to expose Trudeau government as dishonest, inept and corrupt.
  • NDP pick up support from those on left that care about honesty and ethics - which means their support stay roughly where it is in the high teens.
    • Singh stays out of Parliament until either fall 2018 or winter 2019.
  • Liberals lose support from those on the left that are actually paying attention to the facts and issues - which means their support stay roughly the same in the low 40's.
    • Another cabinet shuffle, that re-arranges the deck chairs on the Titanic, but no demand for Minister accountability.
    • After failed negotiations in China, TPP and NAFTA, Trudeau signs something with China, essentially selling us out, in a vain attempt to save face.
  • Sheer remains quiet and humble and fails to gain any traction and stays in the low 30's in support.
 
Municipal- Tory wins re-election, with Ford and a progressive candidate taking 30 and 20% of the vote respectively. The composition of council shifts to a centre-left majority. Tory also shifts left in his politics (as per recent interviews). Gardiner re-build comes up for a vote again, is defeated by the new council. Scarborough subway remains on the books. Palacio loses against Bailao in their run off. DMW does not return to his council seat. 4-5 new progressive voices are elected to council, and we see a dramatic change in priorities. (This one is a mix of prognostications and hopes, I admit.)

Provincial- Minority government, likely Liberal. Horwath resigns after a terrible showing for the ONDP. Wynne announces that she will step down as leader the next year. Brown completes the purge of the socons.

Federal- Honeymoon period for Trudeau ends. Scheer and Singh continue to be ineffective.
 
John Tory wins re-election with 55% of the vote. Doug Ford wins 30% and Jennifer Keesmaat makes it clear she is interested in moving into Toronto politics, hence suggesting she will be interested in running for mayor or a council seat in 2022. George Smitherman narrowly wins a council seat and 75% of incumbents win re-election. Smitherman becomes a key player in Tory's inner circle. Tory makes it clear that his final term in office is all about building transit, including making sure the Bloor-Danforth subway extension begins construction. Of course, Josh Matlow will still fight for the LRT instead. Before Tory leaves office, plans for the Relief Line, the Eglinton East LRT and the Rail Deck Park are set in stone and have begun the early stages of construction.

Patrick Brown and the Ontario Tories shock everyone by winning a majority government with 66 to 70 seats. They win seats in the GTA and a few in Toronto, including Don Valley East, Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough North. Many Liberal incumbents, such as Glenn Thibeault, Bob Chiarelli, Ann Hoggarth and Jeff Leal lose re-election. The NDP move to official opposition party by narrowly winning a few Toronto ridings that were Liberal red. The Liberals drop to third party and Mitzie Hunter, Eric Hoskins or Yvan Baker becomes the new Liberal leader. The Tories allow the Finch West LRT to be built and they begin plans for the Relief Line and a Sheppard West subway extension. Caroline Mulroney becomes a top minister (and she is seen as the next PC leader after Brown) and Denzil Minnan-Wong becomes Ontario’s next transportation minister.
 
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Provincial

The left and centre left get so fed up with the corrupt Liberals that they en-masse scatter to the NDP and PC's. The Liberals are reduced to 2 seats, just as the Mulroney PC's where when the right demanded better. The PC's win a strong majority.

There's the hope, now the prognostication.

PC's win popular vote and most seats, but just shy of a majority, with Liberals barely beating NDP. Wynne throws Horvath a policy bone in exchange for her support. Horvath is replaced as NDP leader in the fall. About a year later, the electorate regrets that they didn't adequately punish the Liberals, and Wynne steps down (to take the heat) in summer of 2019, with leadership contest in fall of 2019.
 
I really don't get a strong "Horwath irrelevant/pulverized" vibe--maybe low-end treading water at worst. But a real sleeper to monitor is how the Jagmeet-less ONDP fares in "Jagmeet's Brampton", given the coattail share gains registered there in 2014...
 
adma said:
I really don't get a strong "Horwath irrelevant/pulverized" vibe--maybe low-end treading water at worst. But a real sleeper to monitor is how the Jagmeet-less ONDP fares in "Jagmeet's Brampton", given the coattail share gains registered there in 2014...
Click to expand...
Horwath had her opportunity in 2013.
The scandal plagued McGuinty era just ended and Wynne was bringing in her first budget and needed Horwath support.
Horwath believed that Liberal lie of reducing auto insurance (which later became called a "stretch goal"), supported the Liberals, and allowed Wynne to gain some distance from the McGuinty scandals. It wouldn't be until after the 2014 election that the public would realize that is was not just McGuinty that was corrupt, but the entire Liberal Party.
 
BurlOak said:
Horwath had her opportunity in 2013.
The scandal plagued McGuinty era just ended and Wynne was bringing in her first budget and needed Horwath support.
Horwath believed that Liberal lie of reducing auto insurance (which later became called a "stretch goal"), supported the Liberals, and allowed Wynne to gain some distance from the McGuinty scandals. It wouldn't be until after the 2014 election that the public would realize that is was not just McGuinty that was corrupt, but the entire Liberal Party.
Click to expand...

Even so, that's hardly a foretelling of Horwath being relegated to the Howard Hampton struggling-with-official-party-status margins, or being "Clegged" a la the UK Lib Dems--now, *that's* so-called "irrelevance". OTOH I'm not going so far as to predict an NDP government--but it seems like some of you are really viewing the election too much in US-style binary terms where a viable-vote third party with 20 seats might as well be a wasted-vote third party with 2 seats...
 
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