[Bjays92]

While I agree that involving NATO forces directly is nuts, the idea that China will get directly involved is also quite the reach. China has no real geopolitical interest in Ukraine, either way. The real risk is that China might attempt a play for Taiwan if the perceive the West as having been substantially weakened.

I agree, which would actually make involving NATO forces directly slightly less nuts. But I was responding to Richard who in the same comment said that China would not hesitate getting involved and that we should send in the full force of NATO. My response was to the absurdity of that claim and the wanton destruction it would bring to the entire world, not on the geopolitical likelihood or rationale for such a showdown, of which there currently is none.

 

[kEiThZ]

I was responding to Richard who in the same comment said that China would not hesitate getting involved and that we should send in the full force of NATO. My response was to the absurdity of that claim and the wanton destruction it would bring to the entire world, not on the geopolitical likelihood or rationale for such a showdown, of which there currently is none.

NATO basically invading Ukraine to fight the Russians would also legitimize Russian nonsense about NATO being offensive and galvanize the Russian people to get behind Putin. Along with a lot of other people around the world. Why do that when it's not necessary and the Ukrainians can win on their own with the right kit and rear support?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Why do that when it's not necessary and the Ukrainians can win on their own with the right kit and rear support?

Indeed. Ukraine is clearing up a mess of Russian expansionism and aggression that should have been dealt with in 1945, all at zero cost in NATO lives. And we get to use up and test expiring or older kit before, hopefully/eventually getting new stuff.

What are your thoughts on Canada sending some Leopard 2s once the Germans open the sluice? Maybe Canada could replace it's 1990's era Leopards with the US Army's new Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) system, essentially a light tank.

 

[kEiThZ]

What are your thoughts on Canada sending some Leopard 2s once the Germans open the sluice?

We should send as many as we can. Including our later versions (2A6). They are getting to end of life anyway and we need to launch a full replacement project anyway.

Maybe Canada could replace it's 1990's era Leopards with the US Army's new Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) system, essentially a light tank.

I used to be more bullish on the MPF, but I'm starting to realize there's options there that might fit better as part of a family. For example, look at the options for the Swedish CV90:

We need a substantial rethink along the lines of what the UK and Australia are doing (heavy tracked and medium wheeled fleets each). But this needs to be part of a substantial doctrinal rethink and preferably an update on foreign and defence policies that lay out where our government intends to use military force and the anticipated threat levels we should design our forces to counter.

 

[Admiral Beez]

We need a substantial rethink along the lines of what the UK and Australia are doing (heavy tracked and medium wheeled fleets each). But this needs to be part of a substantial doctrinal rethink and preferably an update on foreign and defence policies that lay out where our government intends to use military force and the anticipated threat levels we should design our forces to counter.

I wonder if we’re done rolling around the third world in defence or opposition of deposit regimes.

 

[lenaitch]

We should send as many as we can. Including our later versions (2A6). They are getting to end of life anyway and we need to launch a full replacement project anyway.



I used to be more bullish on the MPF, but I'm starting to realize there's options there that might fit better as part of a family. For example, look at the options for the Swedish CV90:

We need a substantial rethink along the lines of what the UK and Australia are doing (heavy tracked and medium wheeled fleets each). But this needs to be part of a substantial doctrinal rethink and preferably an update on foreign and defence policies that lay out where our government intends to use military force and the anticipated threat levels we should design our forces to counter.

A downside is it could give the government an opening to get us out of heavy tracked armour altogether.

 

[Richard White]

Ukraines Interior Minister and deputy have died in a helicopter crash.

Cause of the crash is unknown.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/helicopter-crash-kyiv-1.6717557

 

[kEiThZ]

A downside is it could give the government an opening to get us out of heavy tracked armour altogether.

Nothing wrong with divesting a capability. As long as it is thought through.

 

[Northern Light]

Canada announcing today that we will donate 200 APCs to Ukraine:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukaine-armoured-personnel-carriers-donation-1.6717597

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

I'm generally curious, what would Germany do if countries start ignoring the re-export restriction considering the urgent need? Would Germany take them to court one by one or wave the white flag? I hope Schulz pulls up his boy pants soon.

 

[kEiThZ]

This is going to be amazing. As big as when they first got HIMARS and the average civilian learned what GMLRS rockets can do. GLSDB is a cheap dumb bomb mated to a GMLRS rocket booster and guidance kit. Double the range of GMLRS. Less boom. But that's not as big deal for most targets. Ukraine is going to wreck Russian rear areas with these. And they are cheap (relatively).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615825829971525637

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615819359670132741

 

[lenaitch]

I'm generally curious, what would Germany do if countries start ignoring the re-export restriction considering the urgent need? Would Germany take them to court one by one or wave the white flag? I hope Schulz pulls up his boy pants soon.

I don't know if Germany would initiate any legal action, but it would establish the reputation of the errant countries that they are less-than-trustworthy international trade partners.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This is going to be amazing. As big as when they first got HIMARS and the average civilian learned what GMLRS rockets can do. GLSDB is a cheap dumb bomb mated to a GMLRS rocket booster and guidance kit. Double the range of GMLRS. Less boom. But that's not as big deal for most targets. Ukraine is going to wreck Russian rear areas with these. And they are cheap (relatively).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615825829971525637

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615819359670132741

What about cluster munitions?

 

[lenaitch]

What about cluster munitions?

Banned by treaty signed by many nations - the US not being one of them.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Banned by treaty signed by many nations - the US not being one of them.

AIUI, the US is sitting on hundreds of thousands of cluster munitions.

US yet to rule out sending cluster bombs to Ukraine

The munitions, which carry risks to civilians, are banned by over 100 countries but are being used by Russia in war

www.telegraph.co.uk

Sounds like a good candidate for Ukraine. Turkey agrees.

Turkey Is Sending Cold War-Era Cluster Bombs to Ukraine

The artillery-fired cluster munitions could be lethal to Russian troops—and Ukrainian civilians.

foreignpolicy.com