[kEiThZ]

I am not, I am thinking logically.

Do you really think NATO would start World War 3 over Hungary?

Again. That is how Article 5 works. An attack on one is an attack on all. This is not a soft promise. If it was, there would be no point to NATO. Your argument could also be used on the Baltic countries or aspirants like Sweden. Would we really fight WW3 over Estonia or Finland?

Also, in your hypothetical, Russia attacks a NATO member state but it is NATO starting WW3? How's that work?

Again, Orban says a lot. He's doing his best to undermine NATO and the EU from the inside. Personally wish those organizations would boot Hungary. But my wishes aside, you need to understand where this argument and questioning of NATO's resolve comes from. And ask yourself why the Finns and Swedes want to sign up, if NATO really is as uncommitted to defending smaller countries as Orban suggests.

 

[Bjays92]

I am not, I am thinking logically.

Do you really think NATO would start World War 3 over Hungary?

As Keith said, absolutely. If NATO chose not to respond to an attack on a member then the alliance will fall apart and that's Putin's wet dream.

NATO would absolutely respond and risk World War 3 because frankly the alternative is worse.

Also, on the note of Hungary, the point of having a puppet in power is so that you don't have to have an invading force. If there were ever to be Russian troops in Hungary, it would not be due to an invasion, it would be because Orban let them in.

 

[kEiThZ]

It's telling that Orban denigrates NATO and the EU, but never campaigns to exit those institutions. I wonder why.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Looks like Mariupol is going to fall to the Russians any day now.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ukraine-braces-for-fall-of-mariupol-to-russia/ar-AAW79RZ

 

[kEiThZ]

Ukrainians are rumoured to have hit the flagship and primary air defence ship of the Black Sea fleet. This is huge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514364157495332872

We're starting to see how useless a large force filled with conscripts is, compared to an actual professional military.

 

[Northern Light]

Ukrainians are rumoured to have hit the flagship and primary air defence ship of the Black Sea fleet. This is huge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514364157495332872

We're starting to see how useless a large force filled with conscripts is, compared to an actual professional military.

Replace the word rumour with 'confirmed'.

I just checked.

Apparently Russian MoD and State media (TASS) are admitting it. (err, at least they are admitting to serious fire on board vessel).

***

I'm working on getting damage assessment details.

Edit to Add: Still working on details; but I'm hearing........serious damage, ship fully evacuated, on-board ammo may have detonated.

Tweet:

Google's Russian to English Translation:

 

[kEiThZ]

Replace the word rumour with 'confirmed'.

I just checked.

Apparently Russian MoD and State media (TASS) are admitting it. (err, at least they are admitting to serious fire on board vessel).

Just saw.

This is huge. The Ukrainians just opened up the airspace over southern Ukraine.

 

[Richard White]

This IS huge. Ukraine is kicking Russias ass.

 

[afransen]

How did they accomplish this? Just Russian incompetence?

 

[kEiThZ]

How did they accomplish this? Just Russian incompetence?

Combination of Russian arrogance and incompetence, and Ukrainian skill. Russians drove the ship within 20 miles of the coast despite knowing there were coastal batteries there. The Ukrainians may have lured them in and then used drones to distract the ships air defences, while launching missiles from another direction. 20 miles can be covered by a cruise missile in 2 mins. Not a lot of warning time. And if the crew is focused on something else.....

It being the same ship as the Snake Island incident is just *chef's kiss*.

 

[Northern Light]

Combination of Russian arrogance and incompetence, and Ukrainian skill. Russians drove the ship within 20 miles of the coast despite knowing there were coastal batteries there. The Ukrainians may have lured them in and then used drones to distract the ships air defences, while launching missiles from another direction. 20 miles can be covered by a cruise missile in 2 mins. Not a lot of warning time. And if the crew is focused on something else.....

It being the same ship as the Snake Island incident is just *chef's kiss*.

I'm hearing weather may have been a factor as well; was either one or two Neptune strikes. Was also a night strike. (which is not to take away from anything you're saying) Just possible added factors.

PS, I'm hearing ship has capsized on the port side, not savable.

 

[afransen]

Wowzers. At this rate it might be Russia that is demilitarized.

Isn't a ship like this a ~$1B asset? It is old, but was modernized relatively recently.

 

[kEiThZ]

Wowzers. At this rate it might be Russia that is demilitarized.

With any hope. I've said it before. At this rate, Russia won't have much of a conventional military left by the end of the Summer.

Isn't a ship like this a ~$1B asset? It is old, but was modernized relatively recently.

Higher. It's a ship that is almost three times the size of our frigates. It carries 64 long range surface to air missiles. This the equivalent firepower of half a Patriot missile battalion. And that's just the air defence component. This is an absolutely massive floating missile platform.

Also, the ship was built in Ukraine in the 80s. I'm not sure they can easily build a replacement.

 

[Northern Light]

With any hope. I've said it before. At this rate, Russia won't have much of a conventional military left by the end of the Summer.

Pre-mature to say that w/confidence..........but they are certainly on a negative trajectory from their perspective.

Higher. It's a ship that is almost three times the size of our frigates. It carries 64 long range surface to air missiles. This the equivalent firepower of half a Patriot missile battalion. And that's just the air defence component. This is an absolutely massive floating missile platform.

Also, the ship was built in Ukraine in the 80s. I'm not sure they can easily build a replacement.

Crew of 510.

Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.

4 others of comparable class in the fleet, but none in the Black Sea; and the Turkish won't let any of the others enter (which would take a long time anyways)

They're not done............but assuming they keep this conventional............they are in very real difficulty.

 

[kEiThZ]

4 others of comparable class in the fleet, but none in the Black Sea; and the Turkish won't let any of the others enter (which would take a long time anyways)

Actually, they only built 3. They now have 2. Both of them are shadowing NATO carrier groups in the Mediterranean. I posted one a few days back.

They do have two large nuclear powered battlecruisers that are double the size of the Slava class. Nevertheless, this is a massive blow to the Russian Navy. One has to wonder what confidence and morale will be like on other two ships knowing how easily the Moskva was both taken down (likely due to crew incompetence) and how quickly it sank after being hit. A ship that big and that heavily armed should have never driven near the coast, should have swatted two missiles away like flies and should have lasted longer after getting hit. This is bad in so many ways. Here's how a trained crew operating in littoral areas handles a missile attack:

USS Mason Fired 3 Missiles to Defend From Yemen Cruise Missiles Attack

The crew of guided-missile destroyer USS Mason fired three missiles to defend themselves and another ship after being attacked on Sunday in the Red Sea

news.usni.org

They're not done............but assuming they keep this conventional............they are in very real difficulty.

The Black Sea fleet is large. They have other warships and they could stitch together a composite capability. But they just found out that the Ukrainians not only have anti-ship capabilities, but that they are skilled on how to employ that capability for effect. Risking more ships here would be rather pointless. All to land some marines near Odessa, who'd probably get crushed. They are better off saving those troops for the East.

Pre-mature to say that w/confidence..........but they are certainly on a negative trajectory from their perspective

I was being a tad facetious. But only a bit. I've said before there is a real possibility that the Russian Army might just collapse in the field. Like the ANA melted away when US forces left Afghanistan.

The Ukranians are actually getting heavier equipment and more advanced capabilities now. And this strike is only going to boost the confidence to invest in them. The coming fight in Donbas will be brutal on both sides. But I'm not sure the Russians actually understand the price they are going to pay in the coming fight. Ukraine is going to give them a tougher fight than was had near Kyiv.