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Bjays92 said:
We are at a very dangerous moment in this war. Once again, do not mistake this as me being fearful of nukes being used. However, by formally annexing Ukrainian territory, Russia can then set up a legal pretence for self defence, including the use of nuclear weapons as per their nuclear doctrine, as any attacks on occupied regions by Ukraine would be viewed as attacks on Russia.

Again I'm not saying this will happen, but if there is anything that dictators love, it's doing things that make their actions technically legal within their own frame of laws. It's a justification to their own domestic audience that they have a right to act the way they are acting even if the rest of the world sees through it.

No matter how you cut it, formal annexation is dangerously escalatory.
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Escalators yes. But anybody who postures or worries about nukes doesn't understand them.

1) Tactical nukes take out a small area. With luck maybe they take out a battalion at best. So actually using nukes to stop the Ukrainian Army would literally require dozens to actually create an operational effect.

2) Russia using nukes is the end of Indian and Chinese support and Turkish ambivalence. China and India were already wavering. An actual nuclear attack means that the US would need to openly declare nuclear cover for its Asian allies. Imagine the US announcing that South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Australia and Singapore are officially under American nuclear cover. For Turkey having a nuclear attack in its backyard is the end of any balancing with Russia. And all this would be happening at the same time as the global economy crashes. Imagine this piling on to all the economic troubles in China and the inflation in the developing world. Support for Russia would collapse.

So if they use nukes, they lose support, cause very little actual military damage and risk an American intervention in Ukraine. But there's more! The EU will definitely close borders with Russia and cut all trade. Russia's economic problems are going to accelerate and with it the turmoil at home will be substantial. The turmoil also requires more troops for domestic repression, only making the operational situation in Ukraine worse.

The Siloviki in Russia are crooks. But they're not crazy. They know how this would play out. They aren't going to use nukes. If Putin actually gave the order, there's a good chance he might face an internal coup. But they really, really need the West to believe there's a chance they just might.

What I think it's likely is just a campaign of terror. Open bombing of cities and infrastructure. Possibly small scale Chem bio attacks with deniability. Etc. He will try to destroy Ukraine as we know it so the reconstruction bill is insane.

The actual mobilization stuff is mostly aimed at the current troops. Lots are refusing to deploy. Growing numbers are surrendering. He wants to bully them into fighting. And not let them quit. Stop Loss. Russia style.
 
kEiThZ said:
Escalators yes. But anybody who postures or worries about nukes doesn't understand them.

1) Tactical nukes take out a small area. With luck maybe they take out a battalion at best. So actually using nukes to stop the Ukrainian Army would literally require dozens to actually create an operational effect.

2) Russia using nukes is the end of Indian and Chinese support and Turkish ambivalence. China and India were already wavering. An actual nuclear attack means that the US would need to openly declare nuclear cover for its Asian allies. Imagine the US announcing that South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Australia and Singapore are officially under American nuclear cover. For Turkey having a nuclear attack in its backyard is the end of any balancing with Russia. And all this would be happening at the same time as the global economy crashes. Imagine this piling on to all the economic troubles in China and the inflation in the developing world. Support for Russia would collapse.

So if they use nukes, they lose support, cause very little actual military damage and risk an American intervention in Ukraine. But there's more! The EU will definitely close borders with Russia and cut all trade. Russia's economic problems are going to accelerate and with it the turmoil at home will be substantial. The turmoil also requires more troops for domestic repression, only making the operational situation in Ukraine worse.

The Siloviki in Russia are crooks. But they're not crazy. They know how this would play out. They aren't going to use nukes. If Putin actually gave the order, there's a good chance he might face an internal coup. But they really, really need the West to believe there's a chance they just might.

What I think it's likely is just a campaign of terror. Open bombing of cities and infrastructure. Possibly small scale Chem bio attacks with deniability. Etc. He will try to destroy Ukraine as we know it so the reconstruction bill is insane.

The actual mobilization stuff is mostly aimed at the current troops. Lots are refusing to deploy. Growing numbers are surrendering. He wants to bully them into fighting. And not let them quit. Stop Loss. Russia style.
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It does potentially make their nuclear threats more significant though. Theyre trying to get the west to balk, and their bluff needs to continue to be called.

Like I said, its significant because it creates the legal framework within Russia to justify such actions adding more gravity to their threats, that cant be discounted.

In other news, Putin is apparently planning to speak at 8pm Moscow time (1pm here)
 
Bjays92 said:
It does potentially make their nuclear threats more significant though. Theyre trying to get the west to balk, and their bluff needs to continue to be called.

Like I said, its significant because it creates the legal framework within Russia to justify such actions adding more gravity to their threats, that cant be discounted.

In other news, Putin is apparently planning to speak at 8pm Moscow time (1pm here)
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Putin using nukes would be the end of his leadership if not his life.

MAD aside, Russia using nukes would put Moscow in the crosshairs of every nuclear capable ship, plane and missile within Europe. They know that by firing off nukes it may devolve into cities like St Petersburg, Murmansk and possibly even Moscow being turned into a crater.
 
Richard White said:
Putin using nukes would be the end of his leadership if not his life.

MAD aside, Russia using nukes would put Moscow in the crosshairs of every nuclear capable ship, plane and missile within Europe. They know that by firing off nukes it may devolve into cities like St Petersburg, Murmansk and possibly even Moscow being turned into a crater.
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To be fair, NATO doctrine covers NATO. We aren't going to nuke Russia for Ukraine. But we will destroy what's left of the Russian military in Ukraine. And possibly even Belarus.
 
kEiThZ said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1572269851347136519
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I would not be surprised if he declared a general mobilization. It would however present domestic problems, I highly doubt many Russians want to send their sons, daughters, husbands and wives to fight in Ukraine.

This war is all about Putins ego and now that is he is losing, he is sending innocent Russians to slaughter in order to save face.
 
kEiThZ said:
To be fair, NATO doctrine covers NATO. We aren't going to nuke Russia for Ukraine. But we will destroy what's left of the Russian military in Ukraine. And possibly even Belarus
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I agree, but at the same time having hundreds of nukes on your doorstep pointing right at your capital sends a clear message.
 
I'm much more interested in/concerned about the referendums than I am the proposition of mobilization.
 
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