From today's Economist newsletter:
In the Donbas region (which comprises the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, both of which Mr Putin claims), it is tantalisingly close to routing its enemy. It is bearing down on weak Russian defensive lines near the towns of Kreminna and Svatove in north Luhansk. A Ukrainian military intelligence source predicted that Russia would soon be forced to retreat from Kreminna to save its equipment and artillery. Svatove was an equally important target for Ukraine: the site of large artillery dumps and a gateway to the rest of Luhansk. Pushing the Russians back to the lines that existed before the start of the current war in February would not be difficult after taking that key town, the source said.
That would be embarrassing enough for Russia’s strongman. But the battle for Kherson province is much more significant. The heart of a new land bridge linking Crimea with Russia, Kherson holds the key to Crimea’s water supply. As the gateway to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, it also determines Ukraine’s viability as a sea-trading state. Mr Putin has reportedly asked his generals to prioritise defence of the region. The
New York Times has suggested that he has rejected commanders’ requests to retreat.
Ukraine has been exploiting this stubbornness by pinning Russian troops down in what appear unviable positions with their backs against the Dnieper river. Both the main bridges to safer Russian-held positions on the east bank have been destroyed by Ukraine, hindering the re-supply of ammunition and fuel to Russian soldiers on the western bank. Ukraine is also hitting pontoons and barge lifelines that Russia has been trying to build in their place. Russian soldiers on the west bank of the Dnieper are now in danger of encirclement with no obvious retreat route. Surrender may be their only option.
Pro-war voices in Russia are furious. Some are criticising their own generals for what they describe as corruption and sabotage, claiming they had warned about a Ukrainian build-up in Kherson. On October 1st Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s ruling warlord, whose men have done a lot of Mr Putin’s dirty work in Ukraine, said Russia’s military leadership had covered up the faults of an “incompetent” general in charge of Lyman. He “should be sent to the frontlines to wash off his shame with blood”, he cheerfully added. Margarita Simonyan, the Kremlin’s media mouthpiece, distanced both herself and her president from the defeats. “I love my people...not the generals...who take decisions that harm my country,” she said during a talk show.
This map from Guardian has more detail: