adma
Superstar
Looking back since amalgamation, it looks like it. Though it's similar, but slightly closer, to the 2003 election when David Miller beat John Tory by 5.2% and 36,000 votes.
I'm also a bit surprised that Chow beat Bailão by almost 20% in Davenport (50% to 30%) - where Bailão got about 84% of the vote in the 2018 election!
Also, looking at Peruzza's ward (Ward 7, Humber - Black Creek); it's also Mammoliti's ward. And in 2018 Peruzza beat Mammoliti 37% to 25%. But this time, Mammoliti finished 10th with only 258 votes, and 1.5%. I think that's the last we see from Mammoliti.
Meanwhile in Matlow's ward (Toronto-St. Pauls), where he got 85% as councillor in 2022; this time he got 19.3%, finishing 3rd.
Re "slightly closer": in a strict 2-way contest, Chow got 53.39% vs Bailao. Miller got 53.22% vs Tory. So one might argue that according to *that* barometer, she actually did a hair *better*. (And not only that, but Lastman got 52.82% vs Hall in a 2-way in '97. Tory vs Ford in '14: 54.42%.)
Bailao might have gotten 84% in Davenport in '18; but that's for the absence of an NDP opponent of any value. So it was the equivalent of an otherwise-potentially-competitive US congressional contest where a Dem or GOP candidate faces only Libertarian or some-such-fringe opposition. And given how it's been the most progressive ward in Toronto for several elections running (Bailao's ward was one of 2 that went Chow in '14, and it was the closest reach for Keesmaat in '18 and Penalosa in '21 as well), for it to be her *best* ward in the inner-city "Chow belt" is reflective enough of the clout that being the ward's former representative can bring. (And the only other Chow wards where Bailao did better were the borderline inner-city St Paul's as well as Willowdale and Scarboroughs SW & Centre--and only Willowdale saw her higher than *31%*.)
And as for Mammo--well, of all the sub-Perruzza candidates, that was the best showing in any ward, and the only other above-a-percentage-point finishes were 1.1% and 1.2% for Gong in Scarb-Ag & Scarb N.
And as for Matlow: his municipal council success has to be understood in "one-party-race" terms a la Bailao in '18 (though in his case a bit more "organically" so). And he still got the best result in any ward for anyone not Chow or Bailao. (Mitzie got 13.1% in *her* home turf--she, and Chloe Brown in Davenport, was the only non-Saunders/Matlow 3rd place, though Perruzza got bizarrely close in his ward.)
Saunders got 10.2% in DVW (where he ran provincially last year); Etobicoke N & C were the only wards where Saunders got over 12% (15.4% and 13.6% respectively); Etobicoke C & LS were the only ones where Furey got over 7% (8.3% and 7.1% respectively).
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