I've got to remind you, though, that this was "An agreement in principle". Absolutely no details, funding, dates or anything in the way of a contract. "In principle" legally means it isn't an actual agreement.
It's very common for negotiations to begin with a "framework" phase where scope and direction are established. That often establishes good faith, sets boundaries, and creates skin in the game to move forward.
We know that Ontario had been engaging CN in discussions about the Bramalea-Georgetown line. This isn't a short term discussion: GTS started in earnest ten years ago, the sale of the Weston Sub was more recent, the proposal to triple track through Brampton was explored some years back. It appears that someone had been given a file on the bypass and told to do initial scoping.
We know that CN probably had a clear and substantial ask (which would have become more earnest, and also more problemmatic, once the latest RER plan and the firm decision to electrify were tabled). It's plausible that at some point the negotiators said to CN, OK, given our conflicting needs and positions on the Halton, would it be more productive to talk about moving to a bypass? To which CN might have replied, yes, that is a better alternative.
Nothing firm and certain, to be sure, but the alignment of interests between Ontario and CN on this is quite plausible. The rest is solvable with enough money, and Ontario is clearly bringing plenty of that.
This was a PR stunt that CP wisely avoided. Why would the Feds fund something so lop-sided? If the Feds get involved, it's to see the investment *change the entire GTA picture* (which the full link will do). Let me guess, the back-room PR gurus called CP to attend the announcement, and got a curt "NO!"
I'm pretty convinced that this was not a PR stunt. It went from a suggestion by the various municipalities to the Minister's announcement in a very short time. There was no decade of "study". It would be uncharacteristic even for Wynne to pin her PR hopes to something with no legs to it. Equally unlikely that CN would position it positively if they saw no hope of actually striking a deal.
One wonders if sharing the Halton line simply became impractical. And Wynne's previous promises to improve GO service beyond 4 peak trains each way were at risk. Would this particular government spend a billion or two just to avoid embarassment?
There are several good reasons to keep CP out of this for now. As noted, one reason is to deflect or defer resistance from York/Markham. A second is money - even Wynne would balk at the combined pricetag of acquiring both lines as well as building the connections to CP. A third is that GO doesn't want to upgrade the Milton line yet (not saying I agree, but they can only juggle so many balls at one time). The last is that CP's eventual ask will be less once the bypass is in place and they see CN getting the competitive advantage from it.
This doesn't leave us with a tangible and measurable project execution plan, I agree. Welcome to transit in Ontario. But I think this may have substance all the same.
- Paul