[brockm]

I'm going to make a bold prediction here, based on the data I've been looking at over the past two days and say: Toronto's boom is done. Real Estate prices are falling in Toronto (they're down over 8% on the year), sublease vacancies are tracking decadal highs, and sales have collapsed by over 30% over the same time next year.

40% of all condo sales in Toronto are by real estate investors. And without stupid speculative real estate investors from Richmond Hill, and abroad, there's no way any unbuilt building is going to meet it's sales targets -- at least, not without severe price declines. In which case, the builders aren't going to find the whole thing worth that investment -- if the banks will finance the project at all.

In fact -- and I hope this isn't the case -- we could see projects abandoned mid-construction if this downturn is severe as I fear.

 

[js97]

I'm going to make a bold prediction here, based on the data I've been looking at over the past two days and say: Toronto's boom is done. Real Estate prices are falling in Toronto (they're down over 8% on the year), sublease vacancies are tracking decadal highs, and sales have collapsed by over 30% over the same time next year.

40% of all condo sales in Toronto are by real estate investors. And without stupid speculative real estate investors from Richmond Hill, and abroad, there's no way any unbuilt building is going to meet it's sales targets -- at least, not without severe price declines. In which case, the builders aren't going to find the whole thing worth that investment -- if the banks will finance the project at all.

In fact -- and I hope this isn't the case -- we could see projects abandoned mid-construction if this downturn is severe as I fear.

well, with the report that the Bank of Canada is going to hold interests rates steady... i don't forsee any 'collapse' in the near future.

Remember, we continue to receive more people, not just from abroad, but from the REST OF CANADA. I was at a bar last night and pretty much everyone I spoke to was from 'somehwere else', as in Quebec, Milton, Oakville etc.

The babyboomers are not croaking yet, but their kids are moving out, so there is still a supply of tenants to occupy.

I can forsee a mass exodus of condo yuppies when they realise melrose place (a.k.a, communal living for 25-35) is only attractive during that life time.

that being said, 30% from a record high should be considered as 'stabalizing', not 'tanking'

 

[JayBee]

I'll make a bold preditcion....

NOBODY KNOWS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN! I'll be proven right time and time again over the next few years

 

[TrickyRicky]

I agree with JayBee. But for the record can we please put to rest the urban myth that immigration and population growth are stabilizing forces in the real estate cycle!

Just remember these simple historical precedences:

1) Population growth and immigration have NEVER stopped the real estate market from busting in the GTA
2) The real estate market in cities with NO population growth also boom and bust.

 

[maestro]

yeah, I may be confusing this with the province but, I believe Toronto has been a perenial net loser when it comes to migration from the rest of Canada.