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Back in Dec 2009, I heard it all about the 2010 market, we are going to crash George, look for a 40% percent drop George, with all those condos being built they will all be empty and landlords will be giving them away rent free George, seller will be selling and losing their shirts cause of empty units George, 18,000 new units sure to bring a big time drop George, you are a real estate agent of course you are not going to admit a big drop coming, etc etc etc

Well 9 months almost done, what has the drop been folks, I think SIM got it right when he said 5% across the board, some areas higher some areas didnt budge.

I remember back in 2006 2007 very strong pre const yrs, I was concerned that 2010 will be a challenging yr for supply, if we get through 2010 and it looks like we may for core condos anyways, we start to enter the period brought on by the global credit crisis when pre const sales came to a halt, now we all know that if not much sold in 2008 2009 that transaltes into a period I like to call a desert, latter part of 2011 and 2012 for supply hitting the market, when we have demand and no supply what happens folks, that is why I am buying again at very few selected sites, I am still very bullish on the potential and longer term market in Toronto core condos, that is my bet, again I only own one stock and its a gold play, I dont like stocks or investments that take 20 yrs to doulble your money like GICs, I think GIC s cost you, in the past and yes past is not indicative of future, investors have double some tripled their deposit money for doing nothing except sign an agreement taking a risk of course, but no potential tenant issues etc for 4 yrs and we dont fix anything because its a new product backed by warranty, who knows for sure where we are going, look around, London, Singapore, even Manhattan hearing starting to come back a bit.
 
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Sim, take a walk along the Esplanade, vision L Tower up when complete, feel the area, tell me about the potential if any. Many here have learned from your thread, some come here to joke, trash whatever, but many have learned, info is power and info changes lives, hats off to you buddy. Sincerely........ Kai1 pls no Kleenix
 
Here is an interesting article....

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/realestate/article/862717--why-housing-bubbles-aren-t-good-for-you

The bottom line is that...in the worst case scenario we are in a "correction" phase...not in a bubble. ( i don't think this correction will be more than 5%)

Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

Allow me to repeat.

Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

...

The US maxed out at just under 5x earnings nationally, and is now at approx 3.5x earnings.

Canada is currently above 5x earnings nationally. Toronto is the same.

Sure, perhaps we are different here. Maybe. Maybe.
All I am saying to you is just make sure you can handle the consequences if we are not different, and we go down to our historical average price-to-earnings of 3.5
 
Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

Allow me to repeat.

Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

...

The US maxed out at just under 5x earnings nationally, and is now at approx 3.5x earnings.

Canada is currently above 5x earnings nationally. Toronto is the same.

Sure, perhaps we are different here. Maybe. Maybe.
All I am saying to you is just make sure you can handle the consequences if we are not different, and we go down to our historical average price-to-earnings of 3.5


let's click our heels 3x ...

there's no place like Toronto and Canada,
there's no place like Toronto and Canada,
there's no place like Toronto and Canada.
 
Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

Allow me to repeat.

Globally, there is no housing market anywhere that has sustained avg prices at greater than 4x avg income. This historical avg for ALL COUNTRIES is approx 3.5x earnings.

You might want to check out this link.
http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp
Just to name a few.

City House Price To Income Ratio
Chennai, India 61.15
Minsk, Belarus 40.00
Hyderabad, India 34.86
Cluj-napoca, Romania 34.05
Bucharest, Romania 30.89
Budva, Montenegro 30.00
Kiev, Ukraine 27.84 4.07
Moscow, Russia 27.69
Zaragoza, Spain 24.61
Beijing, China 22.29
Vilnius, Lithuania 20.84
Shanghai, China 20.68
Belgrade, Serbia 19.89
Delhi, India 19.57
...
...
Toronto, Canada 6.03
 
2 negatives - abutted next to the rails and very small floorplate, guys love Yonge and Front Urb, but I hear you. $350 psf no but not bad compared to other areas and condo launches there, that dont come close to what Yonge and Front has to offer.
 
^Are they going for $350PSF?

Otherwise, I predict another "Re-Name Our Condo" contest.

You couldn't pay me a million bucks to be shaken and stirred by the minute...by those damn trains. Been there done that.


what was that saying by Barnum and Bailey ?!?
 
Took a walk around Freedville yesterday and there were some gorgeous units for sale (and some real dogs - inventory at Phillipe Starcke bldg - which I love), but in an area that had been selling for around $650-700/ft, most were under $600 and a gorgeous 1400 sq ft in 550 Wellington with great park view, etc. was $549/ft and had been on the market for 4 weeks. In April, this would've been $650/ft. That's $140 000 difference!! 79 units for sale in Liberty Village alone.

CG, I like the Esplanade area and think that it's location is incredible and as long as you're not paying more than $550ish you'll be fine. While I vehemently dislike London On The Esplanade as a bldg, it has helped the back half of that area significantly and with L Tower that should be accelerated. I'd need to see the floor plans for Backstage (worst name ever) but it is a TINY floorplate.

Personally, I'm looking east of the distillery. To my mind there simply isn't an area that will advance as quickly as getting in on the ground floor of the redevelopment. Great architecture, so far, new parks and transit coming, and as someone who would hold onto a property, in 20 years, it'll be worth just as much as something at Yonge/Front as the downtown will stretch at least that far but it's currently 50% less. With prices dropping fast and the speed increasing, there should be some incredible buying opportunities in 6 months to a year on inventory.
 
Personally, I'm looking east of the distillery. To my mind there simply isn't an area that will advance as quickly as getting in on the ground floor of the redevelopment. Great architecture, so far, new parks and transit coming, and as someone who would hold onto a property, in 20 years, it'll be worth just as much as something at Yonge/Front as the downtown will stretch at least that far but it's currently 50% less. With prices dropping fast and the speed increasing, there should be some incredible buying opportunities in 6 months to a year on inventory.

Interesting. I had purchased a 700+ sqft pre construction unit at $440/ft at King&Parliament (so right by the distillery district and just East of St.Lawrence Market). Would you consider that a good price? Also, am I safe to assume that in 2-3 years when it's built, that the PPSF will be upwards to $500/ft?
 

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