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CN Tower said:
I believe what UD was attempting to say (not to put words in mouth) was that wealthy, local, empty nesters prefer bay/yorkville to university/adelaide. I tend to agree with that thought myself regardless of the very high quality product that the SL is going to deliver.

However, in my opinion, the FS price structure is classic bubble ($1400 psf, are you joking?) when you consider the gorgeous One St. Thomas tower close by at <$1000.
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I agree that wealthy local empty nesters likely would prefer bay/yorkville over the entertainment district. Its a bit (since everyone likes to talk about New York) Central park (Yorkville) vs. Downtown (Entertainment district). Yorkville/Central Park are more valuable.

I posted in a previous thread talking about Aura vs. Shangrila that I thought the mix of people would be different due to size of units and price point. I think the same can be said about 4Seasons vs. Shangrila. I suspect there will be a different mix (more international at Shangrila with more from Asia probably, somewhat younger as I believe more of the 4 Seasons will be empty nesters and perhaps more working people at Shangrila, and yes, some wannabe's who couldn't afford the 4 Seasons but perhaps the Shangrila).

I guess if 4S comes to $1000 sq. ft., to match Shangrila (40% decline), Shangrila goes from $1100 to $660/sq.ft. Aura at about $800(my guess as to price goes to $480 and all $600 product goes to $360/sq.ft. Of course, I would grant that high end may drop more (both in absolute dollars and percentage terms than less priced product). These numbers are quite drastic but not out of the realm of possible. Note however this ranks with the drops seen in the worst of the US markets (though admittedly there are some US markets down 60% from peak (but their peak was more than double ours in percentage growth so the comparable would be 30%)
 
KA1 said:
That's your opinion, you have the right to it and, in this democratic country, I fully respect your opinion which, by the way, might not be closer to the reality.
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Ka1, I don't know how not knowing me personally you would venture to pass judgement as to whether or not I am a snob or for that matter other purchasers at Shangrila or elsewhere.

Going back to my other question about the other luxury product I referred to, am I to conclude that everyone by your standard who purchases a higher end home is therefore a snob? I am quite sure that those purchasing mid range product could conclude that your purchase on a high floor in Aura would make you a snob (applying the same standard) and that would be a totally ridiculous conclusion in my opinion based on what I have seen from your posts. More importantly, I would never conclude such a thing without knowing you personally.

Maybe we will have to go have coffee together and then we can both draw our conclusions (and let the rest of the forum know the results of our mini survey) LOL
 
interested said:
Ka1, I don't know how not knowing me personally you would venture to pass judgement as to whether or not I am a snob or for that matter other purchasers at Shangrila or elsewhere.

Going back to my other question about the other luxury product I referred to, am I to conclude that everyone by your standard who purchases a higher end home is therefore a snob? I am quite sure that those purchasing mid range product could conclude that your purchase on a high floor in Aura would make you a snob (applying the same standard) and that would be a totally ridiculous conclusion in my opinion based on what I have seen from your posts. More importantly, I would never conclude such a thing without knowing you personally.

Maybe we will have to go have coffee together and then we can both draw our conclusions (and let the rest of the forum know the results of our mini survey) LOL
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To start with, I did not make any judgment. Only The Blessed Lord can make a judgment and that too on the Day of Judgment. I just offered my opinion. I have been wrong many times in the past and I could be wrong this time too.

I did not include Trump in my opinion simply because he is my neighbour -- a few blocks down the road from RoCP1.

Let's move forward with the discussions.
 
We always miss your cheery outlook CG.
Glad you are back.

Ka1: I agree we should move forward.
My offer for coffee is still open (my treat)
 
KA1 said:
To start with, I did not make any judgment. Only The Blessed Lord can make a judgment and that too on the Day of Judgment. I just offered my opinion. I have been wrong many times in the past and I could be wrong this time too.

I did not include Trump in my opinion simply because he is my neighbour -- a few blocks down the road from RoCP1.

Let's move forward with the discussions.
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Yikes!
When they toss out that 'holy' card at you, then you know it's time to fold and be walkn away.;)
 
KA1 said:
To start with, I did not make any judgment. Only The Blessed Lord can make a judgment and that too on the Day of Judgment. I just offered my opinion. I have been wrong many times in the past and I could be wrong this time too.

I did not include Trump in my opinion simply because he is my neighbour -- a few blocks down the road from RoCP1.

Let's move forward with the discussions.
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Quick, hide behind invisible sky men when you run out of arguments!
 
interested said:
We always miss your cheery outlook CG.
Glad you are back.
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CG, I have purchased a unit in AURA on 59th floor at $ 700.00 sq.ft.

I rather read about your spiritually uplifting posts -- that prices are going up and will continue to up, quarter affter quater -- rather than read about prices going down by 30% in the next 3/6 months and down by 5% every year thereafter.

Missed you.
 
CN Tower said:
You can buy a house in Detroit for $50,000. What's your point?
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My post clearly specified that the value of Hamilton was its easy commute to Toronto.
Detroit is not an easy train commute to Toronto.

ps. In advance of your follow up question asking what is the point of THIS post, I would say the point is that you should have properly read my original post.:cool:
 
interested said:
Finally, your point about foreign money is bang on. I appreciate X2's point and think it is a valid one. However, I still believe that a Chinese or other investor looking at Canada must be asking the simple question now as follows: I can't make money renting out at $600/sq. ft (nor at $500 in my view either and borderline questionable at $400 to $450/sq.ft.) why would I invest in Toronto if prices no longer can escalate and are in fact dropping. It makes a stable investment inherently unstable unless there is C$ currency appreciation (remember Yuan tied to the USD) to offset the price decrease in R/E.
So, I agree with your conclusion that X2's point is sincere however not sustainable going forward unless there is a change in some of these parameters.
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I am talking about immigrants, may not be pure investors - simply someone to seek a place to live, may not be downtown condo but a house in GTA; the volume of purchases will affect the whole RE market. It may not be a good point to enter as of current but the demand is out there. Even for an investor, break even from rental income depends on how much you pay off the down payment - I will not be surprised if a $500K condo is paid off 100% or at least 50%..though I understand it is probably less reasonable to choose the RE market here, rather than say buying Gold, as of now. It is just a different issue - the best choice out of all the possible investing vehicles.
 
X2 Buyer said:
I am talking about immigrants, may not be pure investors - simply someone to seek a place to live, may not be downtown condo but a house in GTA; the volume of purchases will affect the whole RE market. It may not be a good point to enter as of current but the demand is out there. Even for an investor, break even from rental income depends on how much you pay off the down payment - I will not be surprised if a $500K condo is paid off 100% or at least 50%..though I understand it is probably less reasonable to choose the RE market here, rather than say buying Gold, as of now. It is just a different issue - the best choice out of all the possible investing vehicles.
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X2, that point I understand. Particulary if the "investor" has enough assets to have a diversified portfolio in which R/E (foreign) is a part of the portfolio. And yes, I believe alot of well healed investors are looking more for capital preservation than appreciation (though they would clearly prefer to have both).
As for gold, either you make a killing if it goes to $2000 or you lose your shirt if it goes back to even $800. The point is R/e may fluctuate but it doesn't go up and down 5% in a matter of a day or two (except in exceptional circumstances).
 
I am sure this will be spun as cheap money and buy, buy, buy. The reality is that the news is actually bad, and worse than thought just a month ago and if you believe the bond market and now the central bank, more deflationary risk or certainly not inflationary YET. When it turns, and interest rates riseand I suspect they will rise relatively quickly, if not a year later than first anticipated, the effects of stimulus withdrawal are going to be ugly. However, I do believe this will delay the dropping in prices.

One thing for sure, if prices do continue to ease up with interest rates at these levels, one can just begin to imagine the carnage when interest rates go up. Let's just hope with such an accomodative monetary stance that prices hold.
 
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