[TorontoMike$$]

Wrong on sales.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ndo-sales-in-gta/article8438786/?from=8468583

Wrong on prices.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...an-resale-prices/article8438569/?from=8468583

Stop wasting our time shill. You're a joke.

Ok CN.. keep waiting for that bubble to burst. We can have this conversation in a few months because thats how long its going to take for every article and your information to catch up. Im just saying it as I see .. and i look at the sold activity and new listing on a daily. BTW Why are you so angry did you miss the best gains in history waiting for a bubble. FEB mid month sales numbers will be out in a few days and will be higher than Jan.

Hi Red.. yes the market is not like it was when there were bidding wars and aggressive price appreciation. But that is healthy for the overall big picture .. do u agree

 

[TorontoMike$$]

Jan 2012 to May 2012 were very strong months for sales before things slowed down. If sales are trending close to this period in 2013 - we may be in for higher sales numbers this year. It is way too early to judge because were only a few weeks into the year but just looking at a possible trend.

We can look at the trends in a year CN when your data catches up and hopefully you get over your anger issues.

 

[Creighton]

Jan 2012 to May 2012 were very strong months for sales before things slowed down. If sales are trending close to this period in 2013 - we may be in for higher sales numbers this year. It is way too early to judge because were only a few weeks into the year but just looking at a possible trend.

We can look at the trends in a year CN when your data catches up and hopefully you get over your anger issues.

Difficult to take anyone with $$ signs in their name seriously.

I realize that this may represent the ultimate of chic amongst RE industry d-bags but even at that, why would I take a mere 2-$$ shill seriously?

Yo blood! I needs me at least a 5-$$$$$ shill to gets me to ignore da REALITY of da SITCHYASHUN!!

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

In my experience, in the best of a buyers market, buyers have used this tactic as a negotiating tool but only for valid reasons, i.e. you can't say that the kitchen is not to your liking therefore Mr. Seller, I will only buy if you renovate according to these plans. It only works if there is a clear deficiency that requires $X to remedy, e.g. something that needs to be updated to meet code. Most of the time, the seller will simply research the costs, present the figures and use that as a negotiating tool to counter the buyer's offer. At the end of the day, it'd usually be a price reduction based on an agreed-upon figure. I've never heard of a seller actually going ahead with major renovations pending a sale in order to close the deal although it's technically possible. Mind you, this is all to the best of my knowledge in a buyers market. In a sellers market, obviously the scenario would be quite different.

When we bought our townhouse in 1997, the seller agreed to pay for a couple of things that came out of the home inspection. They were clear deficiencies. OTOH, if you buy a house to gut reno (as we did with our second place), you're obviously buying 'as is.' So, even in a buyer's market, it really comes down to the negotiations and what will close the deal.

 

[TorontoMike$$]

Another one waiting for a bubble. Creig awesome rant.. do tell us when everything will crash and burn and when the world will end?

 

[CN Tower]

BTW Why are you so angry did you miss the best gains in history waiting for a bubble.

Angry? Hahaha. Anger is for spoiled children. I'm annoyed that I waste precious minutes of my life skimming moronic posts by people like yourself.

I've been in this game a long time. I've done ok in my career let's just say, notwithstanding the lack of dollar signs in my username.

 

[Condo George]

CN, if you apologize to me and admit you were wrong on judging me, I will come back to this board and provide info on how things are going on the street, not a chart or graph with numbers on it, although important, if you have done well in your career you will know that there are things behind #s.

 

[TorontoMike$$]

Ok seasoned vet. I take that as a yes

 

[KA1]

CN, if you apologize to me and admit you were wrong on judging me, I will come back to this board and provide info on how things are going on the street, not a chart or graph with numbers on it, although important, if you have done well in your career you will know that there are things behind #s.

Hey Condo George,

I am glad that, at last, you have made a post.

You are in R/E business.You should not be that much thin skinned. As the saying goes, no need to take grudges to the grave.

Relax and make a post about the current situation and make Interested (at present, recouperating in Florida) and other Bears eat their humble pie

 

[js97]

Jan 2012 to May 2012 were very strong months for sales be

Jan 2012 to May 2012 were very strong months for sales before things slowed down. If sales are trending close to this period in 2013 - we may be in for higher sales numbers this year. It is way too early to judge because were only a few weeks into the year but just looking at a possible trend.

We can look at the trends in a year CN when your data catches up and hopefully you get over your anger issues.

Well keep in mind that July was when the government shortened insurable amortization rates back to 25yrs... that explains the slow down.

As someone that is actively involved in the market as an investor (not a realtor) I can tell you the days of continuous increased prices are over. There is definitely still plenty of pent up demand to maintain the housing market in Toronto, but nation wide can be a very different matter.

The american crash really only affected the burbs and sub-par cities that had little to no economic engine to sustain their bubbles. Affluent areas and major cities (NYC, SFO, LAX, CHI) still maintained their price points. I think we will still see a steady, but plateaued price points in the core areas (Riverdale, Highpark, Lawernce park etc) but some of the more speculative areas with owners that don't have the fundamentals to support their mortgages will see some decline.

 

[drewp]

First off, this little rant came from Cdr's comments to Torontomike (who cares about the dollar signs in his name) that type of attack is truly childish.

UD, every real estate cycle you have been predicting a crash, so do your self a favour, DON'T pat yourself on the back, because if I had made as many guesses as you did I would eventually be right.

The housing market as we stand is performing very well right now, and if sales are slightly down a fraction then they were least year, that is a good thing. Prices have increased, albeit at a slower rate than last year. Considering last year was insane that brings the market back to a stable state. The housing market was flat the second half (NO CRASH), and overall sales were slightly down from the year prior, but prices continued to rise.

The condo market has also rebounded from a terrible second half as well. If you want to call that a crash then call it a crash. I will tell you that is not a crash, what we saw is a market correction. Rentals are such a BIG factor that continues to be ignored. Prices went up 9% in C1/C8, which is huge considering the rental market has been flat for close to a decade. People continue to move downtown, and based on the recent numbers, sales down 4% and prices down only 1.3%, where do you see a crash?



The housing market will continue to show an upswing this year (unless an unsual amount of properties come on the market), not at the same pace we saw the first half. Condo sales will dip 3-5%, and prices will drop 2-4% until the summer. At this point the condo resale market will turn around to see modest gains with both resale and prices.

A factor to always consider is how many people will decide to rent and how many people will buy. After the sharp increase last year, some people on the fence will probably be back in the market looking to buy. I have been contacted by renters now looking to buy after realizing what the numbers are.


Either way you look at, I don't understand why some people continue to say this is a crash, nor do I see numbers that indicate that. Yes, the condo market is the most vulnerable segment, and will continue to be, but to say the housing market will crash.....hell no, unless something unforseen happens like interest rates rise dramatically and the unemployment rate skyrockets. Condos are still very much in demand whether it be resale or rentals which indicates the importance for people to be in core still.

 

[urbandreamer]

The main reason I'm confident this is the beginning of a "crash?" Supply. I see endless supply on the horizon. Look at the record number of proposals, completions and the general "head in the sand" mentality the biz has today. Every single realtor and industry person I've talked to says "it's different this time." The record number of new developers entering the biz is also an indicator.

That being said, February 2013 has seen a return to "normal" bullish conditions. Is it the Chinese New Year's effect? My web analytics indicates it's mostly Chinese investors showing interest in the market, followed by Middle Easterners with the usual Western Europeans in fourth place behind North Americans. At 365, it was mostly Chinese buyers.

From what I can tell, locals are really into the lowrise product these days--THs, SFH & smaller infill projects.

 

[drewp]

Renderporn isn't a key factor determining market conditions.

All I see in your above post is I feel, I hear, I think......sorry, that is not enough evidence to support your stance.

 

[TorontoMike$$]

Very good commentary drewp. The problem is most of these guys that have been calling for a bubble have been out of the market for a while and have either rented for years and have seen increased rents and values. Read every negative article and run to pump it on urban. No real knowledge of the market or what the numbers mean as cg hinted at. They will eventually be priced out of the market from both perspectives. But they may have done well in their careers like CN!!!

 

[urbandreamer]

If the market is so strong why are developers and realtors offering "free" first time buyer seminars, "gifts" such as ipads, discounted lawyer fees, air miles, vacations etc?

Why have all the small developers stopped advertising in the NCG?

Why have projects been delayed and/or cancelled?

re: my blog: The 2012 #1 most-searched project was identical to the results on BBH. (If you don't follow my tweets, here's a hint: It was not a Toronto project.)

The average Toronto realtor has 4 sales every year, correct? Let's say you're doing better--one sale a month. So what does your "market intelligence" prove?