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Recharts, of course its TREB’s data, what else would it be? That is after all where all of the resales going through the MLS resides. If you’re in the camp that TREB and all Realtors by extension are falsifying the information, nothing will have you believe otherwise, yet, every piece of listing and sales information you collect from whatever site comes from a TREB generated upload. This statement
Based on spreadsheets like the one you posted there is nothing imminently wrong with the market. I dare to say that it is.
proves my earlier point doesn’t it? You’re looking for affirmation of a housing crash by taking a pixel and calling it an entire picture whereas I provide the information as it was and is, analyze it accordingly and provide diverse summaries so that those reading them may also analyze them and form their own opinions.

You’re new at collecting and understanding the real estate market, I’ve been at it for years. That ‘coincidence,’ as has been explained not just by me but also by others, is not coincidence at all -it's normalcy.

Toronto’s hottest period in 2012 ended in April, in 2011 it was June. Under pricing was rampant during those times and thus the over asking sales prices, but if you review TREB’s Market Watch for the months following you’ll note that the majority of sectors reported below list sales prices. By your reasoning then that’s coincidental as well, except for the fact that they represent a circa 98% historical norm.

No offense but as a Realtor I’m more able to judge what happens in the market than you and the information that would be supplied to “an ordinary guy who needs to buy this year” would include some of those statistics along with sub-sets specific to the type of property, area, location and street. Your map does not allow anyone to gauge anything other than what just transpired requiring them to make a leap in logic.

In fact, I’ll go one further, I happen to believe with good cause that you’ve seen some of my charts and graphs and have tried to produce similar. I won’t get into how I can make such a claim other than to say that on many occasions within days of publishing a new chart, recharts comes out with similar. I also believe your ‘inside’ information is via tosolds’ daily sales posts which are pulled from TREB yet are often not complete and full of duplicates. Suffice it to say though mine are among those read monthly by banks and government agencies around the globe and even crash theorists.

And no, you will not be able to calculate how many have been terminated or total DOM at all unless you have access to TREB’s stratus. The point to all of those numbers is their relevance in determining the pace by which, TEPCs have increased or decreased.
 
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I think that you guys have to agree on what is reasonable/useful and what is not
One is telling me that he can not understand the map another one is telling me that he can ...and so on

I am not too worried about your "macro" views.
You seem too entrenched in the big numbers paradigm and you seem to forget that the average Joe doesn't give a damn about that.
He wants to buy on that street in that hood and that is all he wants and he needs info about that
What he might also want is to know ASAP if the market is changing.

So far none managed to explain why we see consistent price drops (sold under if you like) for the burbs and not so much in T.O.

Your theory should apply to To and to burbs equally. That is, the seller asks 5-10% over the price of that area and he gets just the normal price
I would rather see this like a convenient assumption than like the reality. Again 75% of the sales got less than the asking price

The only valid point you had was that if at local level you have less point the average is not going to be accurate
What you missed is that my algorithm need at least 5 point near by in order to render the color of a point
The points must be in a specific radius.
However as you can see for the burbs I do not post the heat maps before I accumulate enough data to plot decently.
The more data I collect the more accurate the maps become so this is not a valid concern.

You contradict yourself in the same post. You say you do not believe in average numbers but you are pointing out that the same data is available @TREB for C1,C2 etc
As far as I know those are average numbers. So ?

One more point if I may: you all seem to constantly point to MLS/TREB stats. Why can't you point us to a public source that uses TREB data but compile stats independently ?

?????

Wow. I just wish I knew who you were talking to (my post, someone elses?) and what you were trying to say.

Did you go back and read the last 50 pages of posts? I presume not.
 
Recharts, of course its TREB’s data, what else would it be? That is after all where all of the resales going through the MLS resides. If you’re in the camp that TREB and all Realtors by extension are falsifying the information, nothing will have you believe otherwise, yet, every piece of listing and sales information you collect from whatever site comes from a TREB generated upload. This statement proves my earlier point doesn’t it? You’re looking for affirmation of a housing crash by taking a pixel and calling it an entire picture whereas I provide the information as it was and is, analyze it accordingly and provide diverse summaries so that those reading them may also analyze them and form their own opinions.

You’re new at collecting and understanding the real estate market, I’ve been at it for years. That ‘coincidence,’ as has been explained not just by me but also by others, is not coincidence at all -it's normalcy.

Toronto’s hottest period in 2012 ended in April, in 2011 it was June. Under pricing was rampant during those times and thus the over asking sales prices, but if you review TREB’s Market Watch for the months following you’ll note that the majority of sectors reported below list sales prices. By your reasoning then that’s coincidental as well, except for the fact that they represent a circa 98% historical norm.

No offense but as a Realtor I’m more able to judge what happens in the market than you and the information that would be supplied to “an ordinary guy who needs to buy this year” would include some of those statistics along with sub-sets specific to the type of property, area, location and street. Your map does not allow anyone to gauge anything other than what just transpired requiring them to make a leap in logic.

In fact, I’ll go one further, I happen to believe with good cause that you’ve seen some of my charts and graphs and have tried to produce similar. I won’t get into how I can make such a claim other than to say that on many occasions within days of publishing a new chart, recharts comes out with similar. I also believe your ‘inside’ information is via tosolds’ daily sales posts which are pulled from TREB yet are often not complete and full of duplicates. Suffice it to say though mine are among those read monthly by banks and government agencies around the globe and even crash theorists.

And no, you will not be able to calculate how many have been terminated or total DOM at all unless you have access to TREB’s stratus. The point to all of those numbers is their relevance in determining the pace by which, TEPCs have increased or decreased.
First of all I am not in any camp. Still I can not close my eyes when I see the realtours trying to put their spin on almost every report.
After all if I fully trusted them or their numbers I wouldn't be doing this.

Can you please point us to the coincidences that you mentioned?
It is interesting that you have been in the market for years and just recently you started releasing specific reports that I am now copying from you.
Again, show us were you published those reports and indicate which reports I have copied.
I never believed that the two or three reports that I have published so far are so unique. To me they looked like common sense and the idea behind each of them originated in my own curiosity.
If you believe that you are the only one who could have thought about a particular representation or breakdown of the numbers then you must have a very good opinion about yourself.

If you are a Realtour and that invests you with "the authority" this discussion is over :)

You are too focused to demonstrate that the maps (MAPS not charts, for charts I have other plans and I have not released ANY so far) are wrong that you forgot that these are stats.
What I collect from various source is a sample that means there is an error margin but it will allow me to guess where the market is going.
I posted my latest stats in advance and on purpose just to test my numbers and prove that the method is accurate.

PS: what is your prediction for April is it going to be worse or the worst compared with any of the years 2008-10012 or better or the best ?
 
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This thread is starting to get a little stale. What's with all the micro analysis?

Why are there members trying so hard to convince others that there is a bubble. What will you gain from this? Let's stick to macro analysis such as population growth, rent demand, job growth, and Mall parking lots.
 
This thread is starting to get a little stale. What's with all the micro analysis?

Why are there members trying so hard to convince others that there is a bubble. What will you gain from this? Let's stick to macro analysis such as population growth, rent demand, job growth, and Mall parking lots.

I for one admit that the average numbers published by TREB are useful for investors
My maps on the other side are focused on location specifics.
As long as we agree with that everything should be OK and nobody should try to convince anybody of anything :)
If "bubble" is a tabu here I promise not to say that word ever again.
 
Bubble isn't tabu at all. In fact, I was one of the few that predicted years in advance the actual timing of it bursting--June 2012. The bubble has burst already and it's old news. Just like when the stock market bursts or the US housing burst, there are pockets/cities/regions of stability.

Proof of the burst?

1) Condo projects put on hold--Lumen, FAD Condos, etc is surely a bell weather sign the Chinese investor class is fleeing the 416.

2) Product launches being delayed & delayed ... Dozens of new launches have been put on hold.

3) Decline in number of new launches. Check.

4) Price declines. Yonge & Richmond, Ten York selling for $100/sq ft cheaper today than before the bubble burst. 22/21 Yonge Street "from $199,999" etc.

5) NCGi is bearish. What is the NCGi? It is something I made up--the New Condo Guide indicator. The perceived popularity of the NCG based on a wide sampling of NCG boxes across Toronto--a geeky habit of mine :) During bull market runs, NCG boxes empty within a day or two. Since June 2012, it's been common to see boxes half full just days before the next issue is due. This number goes up and down--it's just turned very bearish the past 2 weeks....

6) MLS data--record # of listings in newly registered condo projects. 175+ at Parade 2 for example!

The condo bubble has burst. That doesn't mean it's the end of the World.

Search #Top100 #condoBBL signs on twitter. From September to 31 December 2012 I counted down the "Top 100 Signs of a Condo Bubble" (#condoBBL for short) on twitter.
 
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The condo bubble has burst.

You left out the most important number: sale price. There are no indications that prices are falling. None. Prices are flat at worst.

Another important number: inventory. If the bubble had burst, inventory would be the first thing going up. But it's actually falling when compared to YOY numbers.

I think we're looking at more of a "glacial melt" than a burst. A burst like the one in the U.S. would be preferable since it would hasten a recovery.
 
You left out the most important number: sale price. There are no indications that prices are falling. None. Prices are flat at worst.

Another important number: inventory. If the bubble had burst, inventory would be the first thing going up. But it's actually falling when compared to YOY numbers.

I think we're looking at more of a "glacial melt" than a burst. A burst like the one in the U.S. would be preferable since it would hasten a recovery.

Do you actually have some numbers to support this ?

As far as I know at this moment the Toronto Condo market had the highest inventory ever for this March since 2007 and more are being build as we speak
 
Recharts, I don't understand what you are trying to accomplish with all these balnket statements that have no merit. Yes sales are down, but new listings are down. I still believe condo sales will be higher this year over last year.....wait to the end of the year. There is more inventory now which is allowing buyers to carefully analyze each unit, instead of the frenzied like activiity that occured the last couple of years. The reason why more places are being built is because there is more rentals needed, considering that no new rental buildings are built anymore in the donwtown core. Prices continue to be flat, some areas are rising and some are dipping. There is no melt down, and instead of providing us with objective stats, it is starting to look like the purpose of your charts is only for you own self serving needs. If you think there is a crash, so be it. You participated in this forum to get some feedback, and now you don't like what you hear. Then don't ask!
 
Recharts, I don't understand what you are trying to accomplish with all these balnket statements that have no merit. Yes sales are down, but new listings are down. I still believe condo sales will be higher this year over last year.....wait to the end of the year. There is more inventory now which is allowing buyers to carefully analyze each unit, instead of the frenzied like activiity that occured the last couple of years. The reason why more places are being built is because there is more rentals needed, considering that no new rental buildings are built anymore in the donwtown core. Prices continue to be flat, some areas are rising and some are dipping. There is no melt down, and instead of providing us with objective stats, it is starting to look like the purpose of your charts is only for you own self serving needs. If you think there is a crash, so be it. You participated in this forum to get some feedback, and now you don't like what you hear. Then don't ask!

Ups
It seems that I did step on some toes here.
My charts refer to houses, at least those posted here so far.
My statements refer to that too (melting ans whatever else you like to call what is happening right now)
I have no interest in the condo market and I do not care what is happening with it.
My opinion is that the condo market is in big trouble and you can not change that neither the fact that I am free to state that. I think this way because they are simply to many and the prices too high. Nothing changed radically in the demographics of this city to justify the construction of so many in such a short time. But you know what, let's not argue, let see what the numbers tell for April.
Let resume this in a couple of days ..what do you think.

Till then if you care so much to be objective just explain what the previous user posted: Another important number: inventory. If the bubble had burst, inventory would be the first thing going up. But it's actually falling when compared to YOY numbers. This is so blatantly false that you wonder how much someone invested to make him hide his head in the sand.

PS: I just read that the rents YoY for Condos on Kijiji are going down big time

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/04/29/race-to-the-bottom-2/#comment-239452

#138 Canadian Watchdog on 04.30.13 at 12:27 pm
Results for Craigslist rental offer prices. Prices are based on 9,254 listing observations for the month of Apr ’12 and Apr ’13.

Median YoY %

1 Bedroom – $1,450 – 20.8% y/y
2 Bedroom – $1,795 – 14.0% y/y
 
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I have no interest in the condo market and I do not care what is happening with it.

Well then, a hearty welcome to the URBAN TORONTO forum to you recharts. Might I suggest you peddle your wares on Garth Turner's blog where you'll probably find a more sympathetic audience of rabid and utterly irrational housing market crashers? The idea here is to discuss & share ideas. We don't uniformly agree on anything nor do we vehemently oppose one either.

Thus far your posts, not to mention your derisive tone, serves only to provoke and frankly bore the seasoned members of this quiet little real estate cove.
 
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....Might I suggest
May I suggest you give me your suggestions when I ask for them?
So far I asked for suggestions for improving my charts and thanks for that. Let's stay on topic.
you peddle your wares on Garth Turner's blog where you'll probably find a more sympathetic audience of rabid and utterly irrational housing market crashers?
I am sorry ...so this is the side where the audience favors irrational prices and building condos just for fun.
I did not know...sorry for that, but I would like to stay in the middle between the two and... you know ...we need Yin and ..Yang.

The idea here is to discuss & share ideas.
and make suggestions like above...
hmmm

We don't uniformly agree on anything nor do we vehemently oppose one either.
Thus far your posts, not to mention your derisive tone, serves only to provoke and frankly bore the seasoned members of this quiet little real estate cove.
sorry for hurting your zen
I will post only links to my charts from now on.
I hope that you are OK with that and you accept this forums should welcome opinion diversity (supported by some numbers when possible) instead of becoming "a cove" of consensus and an illusory place where you can avoid and ignore the RE market storms.
 
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Recharts, your main problem here is this is an urban toronto forum, not a suburban toronto forum. We've been discussing the condo market for the past 11 years on this site. SFH don't really interest us :)

Drewp: Nonsense re: "no new rental buildings are built anymore in the donwtown core"
1)Motion rental building at Bay & Dundas
2)TCHC buildings at City Place, Regent Park, King East, etc
3)More on the way

#3 is the dangerous one. Developers can--and imo will--flip from condos to apartment buildings in a heart beat. The condo market is proof that rental demand is there. Developers with a background in rentals--Minto, Concert, Tridel--will start building 1000s of rental units if the condo market can't keep their employees busy. It happened in Seattle, Portland, NYC ...
 
Recharts, your main problem here is this is an urban toronto forum, not a suburban toronto forum. We've been discussing the condo market for the past 11 years on this site. SFH don't really interest us :)

.

OK I will keep it on topic
Give me a couple of days to get some stats for Condos
You will have heat maps and some stats (very high level) for what sold no stats for active listings though.
 

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