MadMax
Active Member
Funny....I went to Sherway Gardens on Saturday with the wife and kid, couldn't find a parking spot for 10 minutes!!! I hate this recession....such inconvenience.
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It's pretty hard to take ANYTHING on Turner's blog seriously, regardless of who posts it.Below is what one of posters at Garth Turner's blog said
It's pretty hard to take ANYTHING on Turner's blog seriously, regardless of who posts it.
There are good reasons to predict a pullback, but the people over there have been crying that the-sky-is-falling for so long it's pathetic. It's basically a hardcore religion over there now.
There are some here who actually try to discuss it. The times I've been over there, THEHUMUNGOUSCRASHISIMMINENT sentiment has been basically considered as fact, as a basic starting point. Thus, I never bother wasting my time with that useless site anymore.how is it any different from the people in this forum?!?
I think people are far too focused on short-term time frames.
^You calling me a liar?
Come to Blowfish Thursday night to settle the score!
Let's not forget that even in less conservative financial times developers had to have 70 percent sales before financing kicked in. That percentage has now been raised. Within those pre-sales is also a built in mechanism whereby buyers have to prove to the developer that they have financing - a pre approval from a mortgage granting institution or other sources of funds. These condos are not springing up on speculation, but on hard demand backed by hard sales. So it comes back down to the job and salary criteria mentioned a couple posts above.That's a peach.
People have been calling for the “great Toronto condo collapse” for almost 10 years now. They have missed the entire demographic shift to city centre living, decreased family size, continued immigration growth, a preference to beat the worsening daily commute, improved city centre amenities and civic attitude, etc…
Yes, there has been a rapid increase in condo supply over the years. But this has been more then matched by fundamental condo demand.
When demand exceeds supply, prices rise.
Unless we get a fundamental shift in consumer demand for a different type of housing, its unlikely supply will exceed demand in Toronto.
I think people are far too focused on short-term time frames. I think for a whole set of reasons (technology, the short-term fixation of stock market culture etc.) people want trends to occur quickly. Time and time again however we see that in real estate trend timing may be vital but it is extremely difficult.
Take a 6 month window for example. Everyone wants to know what will happen 6 months from now. People who predict correctly 6 months on are called heros, people who are wrong are called morons. But wait a second. This might be an extreme example, but take the guy who bought in 1989 and had to wait until 2005 for his property value to return to its point of origin. 6 months represents 3% of the time frame between these points. During this period prices did two general things, they went down, and then they went back up. So 6 months represents an essentially insignificant amount of time in that general cycle. If you predicted prices rising or falling during some 6 month period during that cycle your prediction was essentially of no significant value.
This does not mean there are not over-arching factors that will drive the market up or down or flat. What it means is that the fall in prices this spring and the rise in prices this summer may actually be insignificant events compared to the general trend. Predicting that prices will rise or fall and being years off in timing is actually not as inaccurate as you may think.
In 1989 the stock market crashed. The following events, directly related to the subsequent recession, forget about the details of the events just how they relate to the 1989 event:
-1989 stock market crash
-GST starts 1991 (2, 6-month periods later)
-O&Y bankcrupt 1992 (5, 6-month periods later)
-unemployment peaks 11.6% 1992 (5, 6-month periods later)
-Housing bottoms I think 1993 (7, 6-month periods later)
-PC government fails 1993 (7, 6-month periods later)
Convert these dates into our present situation. This is a thought exercise, it is not ment to be a factual prediction, just something to illustrate time periods:
-2008 stock market crash
-HST starts 2010 (3 6-month periods later)
-Promenant developers go bankrupt 2011
-unemployment peaks 2011
-Housing bottoms 2012
-Major change of government 2012