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Contrary to the G&M article, the issue is not the interest rate per se, but access to credit at these rates. Look at the US right now, "absolute historically low" interest rates and still very few buying.

Why?

It should be painfully obvious by now. People who can't afford to buy a house are not being allowed to buy one. The stock market crash, job losses, etc..all started with loans to lemmings who could not carry the debt. The slow realization that the CDOs based on these bogus loans (increase in missed payments, for example) triggered the massacre that still lingers to this day. While this logic would suggest that Canada is different, is there really a difference between a sub-prime US mortgage and a "solid" Canadian mortgage based on 0~5% down and 40 yr amortization? If you have to stretch yourself this far out, do you think you can really afford the mortgage? Really?

In my opinion, I would be more worried about other emerging investment vehicles.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...first-year-over-year-increase-since-2007.html



In the US credit is very tight. They use FICO scores and unless you have a very high score you will not get a mortgage. What this does is actually distort rents making them go higher as there are qualified buyers out there who cannot meet the FICO score requirements even though they have more than adequate income to buy a property.

In fact, rents in the areas hardest hit are now yielding reasonable if not outsized returns compared to many other investments. Hence the popping up of many "funds" to buy distressed real estate. Of course, things are now starting back the other way with actual bidding wars on some properties and prices on distressed sales being bid up over what they would have sold even 1/2 a year ago. I appreciate this is not universal but simply demonstrates the tug of war between renting and selling of real estate and the distortion which both the market ( banks with foreclosure supply ); funds etc. and the government achieve when the free market is not allowed to function or does not function due to interference.
 
I believe the average size of what is being built has also been shrinking by about 50 sq.ft./year. for the past 2 years. If this is in the mix, the number is meaningless.

We need a median price and/or a price/sq.ft. change to decide if this is meaningful. I am not a realtor nor am I gung ho on the prospects but I would be careful interpreting this "average" data unless it has been corrected to reflect one or the other of the 2 parameters I mentioned.

On the National last night they had Patty Croft on the panel saying "Canada" may be the only country to have engineered a soft landing. I would suggest that needs yet to be seen.
 
From the Toronto Star:
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1231142--toronto-housing-prices-up-23-per-cent-since-2008

Toronto housing prices up 23 per cent since 2008
Sales in the GTA were down 2.3 per cent from May and almost 8 per cent over a year ago.

Sales in the GTA were down 2.3 per cent from May and almost 8 per cent over a year ago, but are up sharply over the past five years.
DICK LOEK/TORONTO STAR


By Ashante Infantry | Tue Jul 24 2012


Toronto housing prices are up 23 per cent since 2008, according to a Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) report on residential sales trends.

The hot spots, cited for the most significant increases are: northwest and southwest Scarborough; detached, semi-detached, and town homes north of Bloor St. through the central part of the city, close to amenities and the subway; and Mimico.

Rising sale prices of residential property in Toronto are driven by a number of factors, including immigration, foreign investment, low interest rates, the attractiveness of an urban lifestyle, and shortages of both developable land and homes for sale, said the report.

And in a city experiencing unprecedented condo growth, bungalows on large lots are coveted; they are being purchased for land value alone and have increased by up to 50% since 2008 to $1 million or more in some neighbourhoods, with buyers willing to pay a premium to build the home of their dreams, says the study.

The Market Snapshot, which tracked prices over the past four years in selected municipalities, echoes the observations of the Toronto Real Estate Board, said its senior manager of market analysis, Jason Mercer.

“Since we came out of the recession, in the second half of 2009, and what initially was a housing based recovery, we’ve seen tight enough market conditions to see very strong upward pressure on home prices,” he said.

“With a little bit more supply in the market we’ve started to see more listings come on line, so that should see a bit of moderation in terms of price growth. We’re expecting the average price to continue to grow, but just at a slower pace.”

During the same Jan. 1, 2008 to Jan., 2012 period, MPAC found the average sale price for residential properties in Ontario rose by 17 per cent.

The report underscores the continuing strength of the province’s real estate market, said Larry Hummel Chief Assessor for the Pickering-based non-profit corporation.

“The continuing strength is very positive, particularly when you look close to the border,” said Hummel. “You always expect that the trend that occurs there occurs in Canada, but we’ve reversed that situation” through prudent financing and not overbuilding.

While a sale price reflects mutual agreement in one particular transaction, an assessment, or a property’s current value, is based on the most probable sale price based on an analysis of all sales transactions from the local real estate market.

“We know in the Toronto market, by reading reports, that some people are more motivated than others,” Hummel. “Someone might have missed out on the last seven bids on a house and there may have been ten people competing in the auction; another month later, the market may have changed a little bit and there were four houses on the street available for sale; it’s not the same exact conditions and people bidding on those houses may not be nearly as motivated; or the person selling the property might be more motivated or less motivated. We analyze all of the sales prices in that local market in order to come up with the most likely or probable selling price.”

Toronto’s gains were the second-highest in the GTA: behind York Region’s 28 per cent, but ahead of Halton-Peel (22 per cent) and Durham (12 per cent).

Northern Ontario shows the biggest growth across the province with Timmins leading at 29 per cent, followed by Thunder Bay (26 per cent) and Sault St. Marie (25 per cent).

“What’s driving that is the increase in commodity prices and infrastructure to support the mining industry,” said Hummel.

In September MPAC will begin mailing out Property Assessment Notices for Ontario’s nearly five million properties with the assessed market value as of Jan. 1, 2012. Municipalities use the assessments, based on analysis of actual sale prices of similar properties, to calculate property taxes.

“Property owners should remember than an increase in assessment does not necessarily mean an increase in property taxes,” said Hummel. “It all depends on a number of factors including the amount of revenue required by your municipality or taxing authority to deliver services.

“If the assessed value of your home has increased more than the average for your local community, region and province, you may pay proportionately more in property taxes. If your home has increased in value less than the average, then you may pay proportionately less in property taxes.”

To help provide an additional level of property tax stability and predictability, the Ontario Government has introduced a phase-in program where market increases in assessed value between January 1, 2008 and January 1, 2012 will be phased in over four years (2013-2016). The full benefit of a decrease is applied immediately.

Hummel said Market Snapshot was developed as part of MPAC’s commitment to openness by sharing information about how assessed values are calculated with property taxpayers.
 
As expected, the sales outlook for the back half of July for resale condos in the downtown Toronto area doesn't look promising. Last month, we were at a sales to listing ratio of about 26%. Based on lately data, I think it may fall between 16-18% in July. Typically, we see a slight drop in sales in July due to seasonality, but this month has been ugly. Either all the buyers are dead, or they never existed as all.
 
As expected, the sales outlook for the back half of July for resale condos in the downtown Toronto area doesn't look promising. Last month, we were at a sales to listing ratio of about 26%. Based on lately data, I think it may fall between 16-18% in July. Typically, we see a slight drop in sales in July due to seasonality, but this month has been ugly. Either all the buyers are dead, or they never existed as all.

You are confirming what I have been hearing from my agent sources in confidence. However, it has been exceptionally hot and beautiful and I would be enjoying the weather unless I absolutely needed to buy now. So I would wait until mid August/September to see if the market picks up at all. We knew it was affecting the new condo market but this is quite a drop in the sales/listing if you are in fact correct and it goes to below the 20% range.
 
Very interesting article in Bloomberg about RE bubbles in safe haven countries.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...irt-with-bubbles-on-cheap-cash-mortgages.html


Here's a teaser:

Hong Kong to Oslo Flirt With Bubbles on Cheap Cash: Mortgages


Jean Liu’s plan to buy a Hong Kong apartment was derailed by the 2008 global financial crisis. It was an opportunity lost as prices surged instead of dropping as they did in many of the world’s property markets, leaving the 32-year-old corporate banker still searching for an affordable home four years later.

“I originally set my budget at HK$3 million,” or $390,000, Liu said by telephone. “Now that’s barely enough for a down payment.”

Liu’s plight is shared by homebuyers as far away as Canada, Switzerland and Norway as a flood of money supplied by central banks globally to prop up the financial system finds its way into markets regarded as havens from economic turmoil and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, pushing down borrowing costs and driving up home values. The U.S. Federal Reserve has held interest rates near zero since 2008 to stimulate the world’s largest economy, forcing faster growing economies such as Hong Kong to adopt a loose monetary policy that fuels inflation.

“The Fed’s trying to save the day, yet it’s creating a lot of distortions both at home and internationally,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said by phone. “The Fed is understating the magnitude of these distortions,” such as rising real estate prices and low bond yields, he said.

Investors in search of higher returns are moving into appreciating real estate markets benefiting from strong economies and stable governments not burdened by high levels of debt.

Booming Markets

In Canada, where government bond yields this week fell to the lowest level since 1950, home prices have climbed 34 percent since January 2009 to an average of C$369,339 ($362,204), according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Switzerland is as close to a housing bubble as it’s been in two decades, according to data compiled by UBS AG. Norwegian homeowners, who’ve seen property prices surge almost 30 percent since 2008, may face higher mortgage payments before the end of the year as the country’s central bank seeks to deflate a property bubble amid expectations that household debt will surpass 200 percent of disposable incomes next year.

Hong Kong’s combination of record-low borrowing costs and a shrinking supply of new buildings caused home values to jump more than 80 percent since the start of 2009, according to the Centa-City Leading Index. In the 12 months through March, prices gained 5.4 percent, more than any other Asian market apart from India, broker Knight Frank LLP estimates.
 
Updated Toronto Teranet numbers

2011-06 132.440
2011-07 134.860
2011-08 137.010
2011-09 137.740
2011-10 138.810
2011-11 138.550
2011-12 138.150
2012-01 138.910
2012-02 138.980
2012-03 139.510
2012-04 140.660
2012-05 142.680
2012-06 145.030 (+9.5% yoy)

---

In Toronto, the high end real estate market takes no holidays

The results of a study commissioned by his firm show that the number of listings in the GreaterToronto Area for houses valued at more than $1-million swelled by 29 per cent in the first half of 2012 compared with the first half of 2011.

The increase was surprising to Mr. McCredie, who thinks that many people are selling with the intention of sitting on the sidelines for a couple of years and then getting back into the market after a downturn.

But Mr. McCredie thinks the strategy may be mis-guided.
 
From the star this morning on line:
http://www.thestar.com/yourhome/rea...-is-the-key-to-understanding-the-condo-market

Perspective is the key to understanding the condo market
Published on Friday July 27, 2012

George Carras
Special to the Star

We’ve reached the halfway point of 2012 and what better time for a look at the new home market. After all, a bit of perspective helps to provide better understanding, and the more perspectives you have, the better your understanding.

Let’s consider a few facts from the new condominium market results:

• During the first six months of 2012, there have been 11,492 new condos sold in the GTA. That’s down 21 per cent from last year.

• The remaining highrise inventory at the end of June stood at 20,133 units, a record high.

• The RealNet Index Price of a new highrise condo dropped to $432,256, down 0.5 per cent from the beginning of the year.

Now, if you stopped here, your opinion would be based on facts. Problem is, those facts have been presented with little perspective and that could be dangerous. Mark Twain once said, “Most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamp post, more for support than for illumination.”

For those seeking to support a certain position or point of view about the real estate market, these might be all the facts you need.

But if you want illumination, please read on.

If you know that last year was a record year for new condo sales, your perspective on this year’s 21 per cent drop in sales might change.

It may also help to know that 2012 year-to-date highrise sales are at the second-highest level on record — 38 per cent above the long-term average for the period (which is 8,339 sales).

For further perspective, step back and remember that new condo development does not exist in a vacuum.

Condos make up the highrise component of the new home market. Lowrise homes (detached, semi-detached, townhomes and links) comprise the other part.

If you want to have proper perspective on the highrise market, it is essential that you understand what has been happening in the lowrise market.

During the first half of 2012 there have been 9,293 new lowrise homes sold in the GTA — that’s 4 per cent fewer than last year and it represents the fourth weakest year on record.

One of the reasons for that is the record-low levels of available lowrise inventory, a result of the province’s intensification policies. At the end of June, there were a near-record low 5,797 new lowrise homes remaining in GTA builder inventories.

The index price for lowrise ended the period at $603,102, a near-record-high level. This resulted in the biggest price difference on record between a new lowrise home and a new highrise new home: $170,846.

How have total new home sales — lowrise plus highrise — been so far in 2012?

During the first six months of the year, a total of 20,875 new homes were sold. That’s down 14 per cent from last year (which was the second best year on record for total sales).

But when compared to the long-term average of 21,141 for that same period, 2012 so far has been average.

With the record high highrise inventory of 20,133 units, and a near-record-low lowrise inventory of 5,797 units, there are currently 25,930 new home options available to GTA buyers.

How does that compare with previous years? Over the long term, total inventories have ranged between 25,000 and 30,000 units, so the growth in highrise inventories is just helping to bring the total inventories back to the low end of normal, albeit a new normal that has seen highrise condos come to dominate the market as a result of the intensification growth plan.

If you’re trying to understand the GTA new condo market, monitor it monthly with official information — including from RealNet, the official source of new home information for both the Building Industry and Land Development Association and the Toronto Real Estate Board — and put things in perspective by taking into account the entire GTA new home and property market, not just one part of it.

Warning: Consuming limited facts may be hazardous to the health of your opinion.

George Carras is the president of RealNet Canada Inc. His column appears in New in Homes & Condos the last Saturday of every month. For more information, visit realnet.ca or follow on Twitter at @realnet_canada.
 
Yep. While decreasing condo sales could be the beginning of a pullback, it could just as easily represent a relative reversion back to the norm, with the norm being a slower rate of price increase. It's tough to declare the market as being at the cusp of a disaster just because some things have slowed compared to near-record sales levels.

Anyone declaring one possible conclusion as fact today is not to be trusted.
 
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Unsold condo stock rises to all-time record of 18,100 units. (Up 20% over last quarter). This is where investors exit stage right.
 
Unsold condo stock rises to all-time record of 18,100 units. (Up 20% over last quarter). This is where investors exit stage right.
Toronto condo market loses steam as investors bolt

Urbanation, which tracks the Toronto market, reported today that the number of unsold new units hit a record at the end of the second quarter, at more than 18,100 units or about 20 per cent.

At the same time, sales of new units sank to their lowest since about mid-2010, down more than 20 per cent from the first quarter and a whopping 50 per cent from a year earlier, although last year's numbers were particularly strong. And over the course of the first six months of the year, sales are at their second-highest level ever.

Notably, the so-called absorption rate declined to the lowest since late 2008, the depths of the financial crisis.

That's because investors are dropping out, said Derek Holt and Dov Zigler of Bank of Nova Scotia.

"The not-for-occupancy investor that has been driving 45 per cent to 60 per cent of Toronto condo sales in recent years disappeared as the monthly net cash flow to financing and paying condo fees and then renting it out remains negative while rental rates and prices flatten out," they said.
 

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