[cdr108]

^^^
From Jamie Johnson, a tweet he posted:
Remax condos plus:
Deals falling thru. Not just conditional ones but also firm deals. Anyone else seeing that? Lawyers get paid but not Realtors .... [November 19th 2012]

I wonder if this is more fuel to confirm the deteriorating real estate market that some on this forum suspect.

i wonder which firm deals are falling thru ... resale or pre-con?
lawyers get paid fractional ($1-2K) of what realtors do on ($20+K) these types of transactions but lawsuits are a different matter.

 

[redfirm]

That's the official start of the Toronto housing correction IMO. How long & how deep it extends is anyone's guess.

If you are correct that means that my old friend KA1 owes me a drink for guessing the timing right!
I also said at least 25% general GTA decline, so if that also happens, he will owe me another one!

 

[redfirm]

First number (16%) is higher than what I've expected. Assuming the same % applies to most of the recent record breaking years ... it's just not good.

A bit more on this. 16% assumes everything else stays the same (other than changes introduced by Flaherty). But what if interest rates move just a little bit up? Or prices go down, even moderately, and it is time to renew? Number quickly goes up as I have a feeling that significant % just barely escapes being in this first batch of purchasers under the water.

 

[KA1]

If you are correct that means that my old friend KA1 owes me a drink for guessing the timing right!
I also said at least 25% general GTA decline, so if that also happens, he will owe me another one!

Redfirm, by calling me your 'old friend' you have forced me to end my self-imposed exile,but only for temporary purposes.

As they say in England -- the country where I grew up -- one swallow does not make it a spring. Losses anticipated by a few rash speculators -- in Trump Tower, for example -- does not mean general across the board decline in the market.

A few days ago, a 916 sq. ft, 2 bedroom and a den unit,in Burano was listed at $ 749,900 or $ 818 psf (C 2493604). I paid $ 700 psf for my unit on Executive floors in AURA. That does not sound like a 25% decline in the market. May be I am using the old math that is not relevant for the RE transactions.

 

[CN Tower]

in Burano was listed at $ 749,900 or $ 818 psf (C 2493604).9]

KA1, you of all people recognize the difference between asking price & sold price.

The stat that I referred to as signaling the downturn was I believe the City of Toronto year over year average sale price. Personally I prefer nominal and we will see it for November in less than 2 weeks. If that figure declines year over year it will mark the first recorded year over year decline since September 2008. I suppose we will see what the future brings to our little market.

 

[interested]

KA1, you of all people recognize the difference between asking price & sold price.

The stat that I referred to as signaling the downturn was I believe the City of Toronto year over year average sale price. Personally I prefer nominal and we will see it for November in less than 2 weeks. If that figure declines year over year it will mark the first recorded year over year decline since September 2008. I suppose we will see what the future brings to our little market.

CNTower,
I prefer median price since the average will be over exaggerated since it is the high end that has slowed the most and therefore average price is misleading. The better figures are Teranet's. Perhaps someone could post those year on year at the end of November.
I am not being an apologist just pointing out that the decline may not be quite as bad as appears.

I know Ka1 knows the difference between asking price and sold price. He is stirring the pot. Of course he knows a listing at Burano vs. the selling price is meaningless if the property does not sell. An unrealistic buyer does not a market make.
I am guessing but I believe he is trying to point out that an executive floor Precon from 2008 may still be worth more than paid for given resale of relatively new construction. However, for up to a couple of years after occupancy, large buildings with many units will experience price pressure, more so in my view than resale buildings which may have eliminated early speculators, weaker investors, and have more end users.

I personally hope Ka1ends his self imposed exile....anyhow.....

 

[daveto]

October Teranet out today

The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Indexâ„¢ for October was up 3.4% from a year earlier, for an 11th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. Up through September this cross-country trend was replicated in the Vancouver market, but in October this was no longer the case.

In Montreal 12-month inflation has decelerated in 10 of the last 11 months, in Toronto in each of the last six months, in Winnipeg in each of the last four months. Twelve-month price changes continue to vary widely.

In October the 12-month gain exceeded the national average by a wide margin in four metropolitan areas: Halifax (8.9%), Hamilton (7.2%), Toronto (6.4%) and Winnipeg (5.9%). In Montreal (3.6%) and Calgary (3.5%), it was close to the national average. In Quebec City and Edmonton the 12-month rise was 2.6% and in Ottawa-Gatineau it was 2.5%. Prices were down from a year earlier in Vancouver (−1.0%) and Victoria (−1.7%).
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx#null

 

[Eug]

Toronto:

Oct-2010 125.780
Nov-2010 125.100
Dec-2010 125.660
Jan-2011 126.370
Feb-2011 126.370
Mar-2011 126.820
Apr-2011 127.700
May-2011 129.800
Jun-2011 132.440
Jul-2011 134.860
Aug-2011 137.010
Sep-2011 137.740
Oct-2011 138.810
Nov-2011 138.550
Dec-2011 138.150
Jan-2012 138.910
Feb-2012 138.980
Mar-2012 139.510
Apr-2012 140.660
May-2012 142.680
Jun-2012 145.030
Jul-2012 147.320
Aug-2012 148.390
Sep-2012 148.550
Oct-2012 147.720

 

[klb86]

October Teranet out today

The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Indexâ„¢ for October was up 3.4% from a year earlier, for an 11th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. Up through September this cross-country trend was replicated in the Vancouver market, but in October this was no longer the case.

In Montreal 12-month inflation has decelerated in 10 of the last 11 months, in Toronto in each of the last six months, in Winnipeg in each of the last four months. Twelve-month price changes continue to vary widely.

In October the 12-month gain exceeded the national average by a wide margin in four metropolitan areas: Halifax (8.9%), Hamilton (7.2%), Toronto (6.4%) and Winnipeg (5.9%). In Montreal (3.6%) and Calgary (3.5%), it was close to the national average. In Quebec City and Edmonton the 12-month rise was 2.6% and in Ottawa-Gatineau it was 2.5%. Prices were down from a year earlier in Vancouver (−1.0%) and Victoria (−1.7%).
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx#null

"However, the index also showed an 11th consecutive month of deceleration in year-to-year price increases and a drop in average prices from September levels"

"The composite index was down 0.2 per cent from September — only the third time in 13 years of data that there was a month-to-month decline in October, Teranet said on its website.

The index also declined between September and October 2008, just before a major recession was sparked by a crisis in the U.S. financial industry."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/11/21/house-prices-october.html?cmp=rss

 

[ILuvTO]

In Toronto, fall puts a chill on a sellers’s market

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...-a-chill-on-a-sellerss-market/article5793179/

The fall market is a weekly market,” says Thomas Neal of Royal LePage Estate Realty. “Some weeks it goes and some weeks it doesn’t.”

It’s also a market that’s winding down in the dwindling days of November. Few new listings will arrive on the market in December. Those sellers who do list now have likely already purchased another property.

“If you don’t have to sell I think you’re going to wait until the spring,” says Mr. Neal, who concentrates his business in the Beaches neighbourhood.

As for those sellers whose condos and houses are already lingering on the market, Mr. Neal predicts many of those people will be taking down the “for sale” sign by Christmas.

“People who don’t sell in December will be back out on the market in February,” he says.

But as much anxiety as the current torpor is causing sellers, the market shift creates some interesting opportunities for buyers, Mr. Neal adds.

Sellers are worried and buyers are under no pressure to buy.

“It’s a totally different market than a year ago.”

Mr. Neal says buyers have more bargaining clout now. Meanwhile, asking prices are staying flat or – in some cases – drifting lower.

“There is an adjustment going on,” says Mr. Neal. “Prices aren’t dropping but they’re coming off of the levels that were inflated to begin with.”

What he means is that the hyper-active bidding wars of last spring have evaporated. Buyers are facing fewer rivals and therefore they are not driving up selling prices by crazy amounts.

The change in the broader housing market is part of a trickle-down effect from all of the condo building, Mr. Neal explains.

While people are still coveting single-family houses, those move-up buyers who already own a condo are more hesitant to purchase a house because they don’t know how long it will take to sell the condo. That’s a change from the dynamic of the last eight years or so when condo owners would often list the unit first, reap more than they expected in a bidding contest, and then in turn funnel that money into winning the competition for a house.

“Now they’re not buying first; they’re selling first,” says Mr. Neal. With that shift, he explains, the number of buyers out there is cut roughly in half.

For those who do plan to list soon, Mr. Neal recommends that they listen to their agent’s advice about setting a realistic price. If homeowners interview a few agents and one suggests a significantly higher asking price than the others, Mr. Neal cautions that the agent should be able to justify that price.

Otherwise, he says, the most sanguine agent may just be trying to win the listing by telling homeowners what they want to hear.

Tell us what you think: Will Toronto’s real estate market rebound in the spring or is a longer correction underway?

 

[James]

^ As expected. As the commenter Whitfit notes in the comments section, good houses in the good neighborhoods are still drawing multiple buyer interest and I believe this will hold true well into next year. There is much less inventory now but I see prime real estate still selling in about a week. Asking prices are also coming down from the stratosphere to a more realistic range. Hopefully this will carry through to 2013 but I'm not anticipating a significant drop anytime soon.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

In Toronto, fall puts a chill on a sellers’s market

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...-a-chill-on-a-sellerss-market/article5793179/

It's not mentioned in the article, but the photo is a house on Langley we bid on but lost to a flipper. He paid too much, put too much into a 3bd semi and is now on his third price and 2nd agent. Definitely getting his head handed to him.

 

[cdr108]

It's not mentioned in the article, but the photo is a house on Langley we bid on but lost to a flipper. He paid too much, put too much into a 3bd semi and is now on his third price and 2nd agent. Definitely getting his head handed to him.

that's too funny. even the caption is dated for a November 29, 2012 article:

The bidding wars of last spring have disappeared because buyers are facing fewer rivals. FOR ROB REAL ESTATE SERIES running November The house at 150 Langley Avenue, in Toronto's Riverdale neighbourhood, has an open house on October 14, 2012. JENNIFER ROBERTS FOR THE GLOBE AND MAIL
(JENNIFER ROBERTS For The Globe and Mail)

 

[MAU]

“Now they’re not buying first; they’re selling first,†says Mr. Neal. With that shift, he explains, the number of buyers out there is cut roughly in half.

That's an interesting point. It also shows how quickly things can change. As the sell-first approach spreads to other levels and other participants of the RE market, the feedback loop of falling prices will only increase.

 

[interested]

That's an interesting point. It also shows how quickly things can change. As the sell-first approach spreads to other levels and other participants of the RE market, the feedback loop of falling prices will only increase.

Those older ones amongst us will recall that this buying before selling is a phenomenon which has only occurred in the past decade or so. Previously, without overheated markets, the norm was to make a "conditional offer" to you selling your current property or selling first and then buying.

It was only with the speculative nature and investment nature of housing did extra cash trying to make an investment enter the market and result in this pattern change. I am not suggesting that there were not people buying before selling before but this was definitely not the norm. The past 1o years, especially the overheated condo market when people would line up for 2 weeks before a launch and the whole project sell in a weekend did the overheated conditions change the pattern. Not many in the population can afford 2 mortgages so one hopes that rationality will take over and that is in fact why you are seeing that people are now "selling first".