interested
Senior Member
Thanks Dave for that very informative post.
I can see that my simplistic overall view to get a handle on how defaults might effect CMHC is clearly wrong but the result strangely appears somewhat similar (for all the wrong reasons).
Dave do you know what the default rate in the US was to put Fannie and Freddie Mac into negative territory and what the rate ultimately went to over the crisis. I don't know for sure but using Uncle Google it appears the default rate to be around 2% or more at present.
I found some articles suggesting at present 30 day behind loans are down to 7.4% from a peak of 10.1% in 2008.
Over 90 days, when banks start to foreclose: fell to 3.06% from 3.6% last year. Homes that are more than 90 days and received a foreclosure notice but not seized by the banks increased to 4.39%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...uencies-in-u-s-fall-to-lowest-since-2008.html
So even a slight meltdown could easily hit the 1% figures I would think in Canada and a 25% correction in price I would believe could make the default rate go higher.
I can see that my simplistic overall view to get a handle on how defaults might effect CMHC is clearly wrong but the result strangely appears somewhat similar (for all the wrong reasons).
Dave do you know what the default rate in the US was to put Fannie and Freddie Mac into negative territory and what the rate ultimately went to over the crisis. I don't know for sure but using Uncle Google it appears the default rate to be around 2% or more at present.
I found some articles suggesting at present 30 day behind loans are down to 7.4% from a peak of 10.1% in 2008.
Over 90 days, when banks start to foreclose: fell to 3.06% from 3.6% last year. Homes that are more than 90 days and received a foreclosure notice but not seized by the banks increased to 4.39%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...uencies-in-u-s-fall-to-lowest-since-2008.html
So even a slight meltdown could easily hit the 1% figures I would think in Canada and a 25% correction in price I would believe could make the default rate go higher.