I have been watching this thread for a while and I would like to share my thoughts.
Shutting down the BCRY and going to transload only is a bad solution for a few reasons. The first is that eliminating all trackage and spurs isn't a pure savings. Factor in the cost of increased pressure on roads, both congestion and damage, from the trucks needed to take the freight from railhead to facility. Also factor in the investment needed to build and equip a transload yard capable of filling all the customers' needs. This reduces your potential savings quite a bit.
The second reason transload-only is a poor solution is that it increases the cost for the existing industrial users. This one is quite simple. It will always be cheaper for an industry to unload a car at their facility than it is to transfer between modes off site and do multiple trips to unload a single car. It may be the case that this increased hassle motivates the industries using the line to migrate to truck-only delivery, bypassing transload altogether. This may also be enough to see customers leave town entirely. The value added in having spurs to facilities is significant. If you lose this, you lose the ability to attract sizeable industry to your town which means the BCRY has failed in its whole mission to prevent Barrie from becoming just a bedroom community.
Transload-only also fails to address the core cause of the issues of BCRY, which is unreliable interchange. This is where CN comes in.
I think we can put to bed any idea that CN would be interested in returning to Barrie, thus making the BCRY a non-operating entity. Barrie is out of the way for them and there isn't enough business to make it worthwhile becoming a contractor. This doesn't mean CN isn't a useful asset to improving the BCRY. What could be done is to create an interchange somewhere on the Newmarket sub and make a once or twice weekly run down there to drop cars at the interchange. This has the positive impact of providing more routing options for customers and improving reliability of interchange. Of course the trackage to Utopia would remain critical as it expands the railway's reach to industrial parks being developed in the city's west end and keeps the option for customers to interchange with CP.
Bottom line is that the railway is an important resource to city. Moving to transload-only severely hinders its ability to serve the city and make it attractive to businesses that might want to locate there. Remember, Haliburton Timber is proof that it is possible to attract customers to use the BCRY. There is hope. The end isn't yet near.
Here is ultimately what it boils down to....
What is the owner's goal for that particular rail line? It's an easy question to ask, but not an easy one to answer.
In the case of Orangeville, their purchase of the line was - at that time - to protect their industrial interests. To that end, they worked with a shortline operator (then Cando) to offer a service tailored to the couple of customers left in town. This meant providing on-call switching services, and free storage of cars to allow the plant to operate as a just-in-time facility. And for many years, it's worked.
And that Cando was able to pick up a couple of additional customers in the north part of Brampton didn't hurt their cause, either. And it's not like they weren't trying to drum up more business before their decision to step away from the operation.
But as frequently becomes the case with a government-owned entity, it became a political football. Yes, the line has been operating at a fiscal loss for many years. But does the tax revenue of the businesses that are continuing to operate in town due to the line help offset that cost? The taxes of those employed by the facility or the railroad, most of whom live in town? How about the reduction in truck traffic, and thus maintenance/wear-and-tear on the roads? I don't have answers to those questions - and frankly, I suspect that very few if any of the Councillors in the Town of Orangeville do, either.
Those questions are also applicable to the BCRY and the City of Barrie, although I'd suggest that the answers are going to be even harder to find. Unlike Orangeville-Brampton which had a stable customer base, BCRY has not.
Dan