Zoom
Active Member
I filled out my census info online yesterday. Any guesses what this year's increase will be? Will there even be an increase?
|
|
|
- Thread starter Zoom
- Start date
UrbanRED
Active Member
I'm an optimist, so I put 20,000+. Last year's results were better than I expected and it seems that Calgary continues to see lots of international immigration, so the more the merrier.
I'm going with 17K this year. I would say 17K as an educated guess given intl immigration and the natural increase of the city. +9,000 for natural increase, and +8,000 net intl immigration. Break even for inter-provincial migration.
gsunnyg
Senior Member
Seeing that oil prices were strong in the first half of last year and overall migration had a strong jump in the second half according to the data (Alberta), Im gonna go with a solid 25 000 (+/- 1000) increase this year. The slow down in our economy to start this year may pull the numbers back slightly but Im staying optimistic.
Atticus
Active Member
kora
Active Member
26,000 is my guess. Monthly City estimates suggest somewhere close to that number. Stats Can CMA numbers suggest 22,000.
Could easily be that high. It comes down to intl immigration numbers. The natural increase doesn't change much but will be a little lower than normal and come in around 9-10K. IIRC last year net international immigration was ~+16K, so anything close to that would get us up to 26K. I wonder if there's been any negative net migration within the country, especially in the last 6 months?
Alex_YYC
Senior Member
21,000 will be my guess.
gsunnyg
Senior Member
Yea seeing that we hit 21k last year, anything below 20k would be slightly concerning, a step back for our city. Healthy population growth is essential for a thriving city. The numbers from economists, journalists and other academic tweeters are suggesting stronger immigration numbers in Alberta last year so it shouldn't be hard to clear the 20k mark.
Social Justice
Active Member
Apologies...I have a pretty spergie/autistic question.
Human population is expected to peak at some point around 2050(family planning, higher levels of development), then begin to decline slowly. What will happen when cities and countries begin have negative growth rates?
We can't have infinite growth.
gsunnyg
Senior Member
Then u get whats happening to developed nations like Japan, not the end of the world but definielty economic impacts like a shrinking GDP. By then I'm hopeful sparsely populated countries like Canada will implement effective polices to encourage more natural population growth. The only reason i'm emphasizing why it may be bad for Calgary if we don't reach the 20k mark is because with our current Federal government, immigration numbers are at record highs and its never gonna get easier than this to grow cities (unless you have a boom). If Calgary can't take advantage of higher immigration numbers now like other cities, than it speaks of underlying problems within the city which is deterring people away, e.g the economy. For years before 2014, one of the areas our city was hailed for was its massive population growth. Healthy immigration numbers was the only real good news to come out of Calgary's economy last year. It would be a good time to attract tech workers, we have a massive shortfall of tech talent which is making it harder to diversify. Plus more people, more development, more forums!?
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
We are going to have to switch to some kind of economic system that isn't totally dependent on growth, which is a whole other can of worms. Of course populations will always shift, so some places will continue to grow even if global population levels peak or decline. Even as the Canadian population as a whole grows because of immigration, most smaller cities and rural areas are either stable or shrinking.
It's pretty crazy that everything we know about governing and planning a city is based on growth. Thus, almost every city that has a declining population - even those that have no realistic hope of attracting new people - focus on creating growth rather than planning for a smaller population. Detroit is an interesting example of a city that is attempting to re-write the rules of urban governance and planning based on a shrinking population (although their metro region continues see significant growth).
Even at the level of individual home ownership, imagine buying a home with the expectation that its value will be less than what you bought it for (or that you won't even be able to sell it). This is basically how people in Detroit need to think.
Detroit is a very interesting example. Flint is another and is kind of a microcosm of the Detroit issue. Some shows Detropia, and Flint Town offer some good perspective of what happens when cities are in reverse. Detroit's metro area has been grower at a slow but reasonable pace, but the city saw vast population decline.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland are interesting examples of large metros that have lost population in the metro area as well as the city. Interesting becuase they don't seem as destitute as Detroit, especially Pittsburgh.
Cleveland's city population has gone from an all-time high of 914,000 to just 385,000 today and continues to drop, which is really significant. It'll be interesting to watch some of those cities, but in the end I guess humans adapt. .
Pittsburgh and Cleveland are interesting examples of large metros that have lost population in the metro area as well as the city. Interesting becuase they don't seem as destitute as Detroit, especially Pittsburgh.
Cleveland's city population has gone from an all-time high of 914,000 to just 385,000 today and continues to drop, which is really significant. It'll be interesting to watch some of those cities, but in the end I guess humans adapt. .
If the global population stops and declines, some cities and countries will grow, while others decline. A place like Bangladesh for example is never going to properly support 160 Million people. Places like Canada have lots of land to easily support others. Populations will migrate
JesseLikesCities
Active Member
My guess is 32,656. I know that's extremely optimistic but if I'm right that will put us at 1.3 million on the nose.