[darwink]

Except for the part where Gateway was actually passed by the previous government and was ready to build but Trudeau vetoed it after he was elected. I work in oil and gas and the general perspective is that Trudeau is killing this industry.

It failed due to a court challenge. That the current government didn’t like it doesn’t negate that.

The general perspective is wrong. There is so much more the government could do through lack of action to slowly sunset the industry. Industry likes the myths Canada action and rebel spout. They like the noise from Krause. They like that the last government was noisy.

But all the noise was for naught. A government that is boisterous about projects will always have difficulty having its decisions hold up in the court - especially if it is boisterous before those decisions are formally made.

All that noise accomplished nothing. Now we have a government trying to get things done and putting lots of resources on the table and since it isn’t noisey it is seen as lacklustre.

The industry has a really poor persepective on this - they have been on the wrong side of a PR battle for a decade and a half. They haven’t found a narrative works on people other than their continual supporters. It doesn’t help that the industry isn’t united so Capp has to defend against defections to smaller associations and caodc which are louder since they aren’t accountable to large shareholders and can be more loud, and angry people like loud.

 

[Chowda7]

It failed due to a court challenge. That the current government didn’t like it doesn’t negate that.

The general perspective is wrong. There is so much more the government could do through lack of action to slowly sunset the industry. Industry likes the myths Canada action and rebel spout. They like the noise from Krause. They like that the last government was noisy.

But all the noise was for naught. A government that is boisterous about projects will always have difficulty having its decisions hold up in the court - especially if it is boisterous before those decisions are formally made.

All that noise accomplished nothing. Now we have a government trying to get things done and putting lots of resources on the table and since it isn’t noisey it is seen as lacklustre.

The industry has a really poor persepective on this - they have been on the wrong side of a PR battle for a decade and a half. They haven’t found a narrative works on people other than their continual supporters. It doesn’t help that the industry isn’t united so Capp has to defend against defections to smaller associations and caodc which are louder since they aren’t accountable to large shareholders and can be more loud, and angry people like loud.

It failed due to a court challenge. That the current government didn’t like it doesn’t negate that.

The general perspective is wrong. There is so much more the government could do through lack of action to slowly sunset the industry. Industry likes the myths Canada action and rebel spout. They like the noise from Krause. They like that the last government was noisy.

But all the noise was for naught. A government that is boisterous about projects will always have difficulty having its decisions hold up in the court - especially if it is boisterous before those decisions are formally made.

All that noise accomplished nothing. Now we have a government trying to get things done and putting lots of resources on the table and since it isn’t noisey it is seen as lacklustre.

The industry has a really poor persepective on this - they have been on the wrong side of a PR battle for a decade and a half. They haven’t found a narrative works on people other than their continual supporters. It doesn’t help that the industry isn’t united so Capp has to defend against defections to smaller associations and caodc which are louder since they aren’t accountable to large shareholders and can be more loud, and angry people like loud.

You should tell that to the 50,000 Albertans who've lost their jobs. I'm sure they all think Trudeau is doing a bang up job

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Trudeau doesn't control global oil prices, 50,000 Albertans lost their jobs because of the collapse of global oil prices. Cut or at least temper the hyperbole. There are a lot of stakeholders in this issue, and of course there has been a lot of inaction from Trudeau, but he didn't create it. It's actually kind of an unprecedented situation for us nationally, so it makes sense that it's kind of f*cked up, but it definitely sucks that it's taking so long to figure out.

 

[Chowda7]

Trudeau doesn't control global oil prices, 50,000 Albertans lost their jobs because of the collapse of global oil prices. Cut or at least temper the hyperbole. There are a lot of stakeholders in this issue, and of course there has been a lot of inaction from Trudeau, but he didn't create it. It's actually kind of an unprecedented situation for us nationally, so it makes sense that it's kind of f*cked up, but it definitely sucks that it's taking so long to figure out.

The differential on WCS is completely separate from global oil prices we can still be profitable at $30 a barrel and WTI is over $50 a barrel. The differential is due to domestic policies.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

So if it's Trudeau's fault, then why have those policies been the same since long before his election?

 

[Chowda7]

So if it's Trudeau's fault, then why have those policies been the same since long before his election?

Sure except for all the new ones he added

1) Speeding up the timeline to retire oil rail cars from 3 yrs to Nov 1.
2) Changing regulatory process on Energy East at the end to include downstream emission assessments (how much emissions cars will use from the oil transported from the pipeline)
3) Bill C69 to add regulations to capital projects
4) Bill to ban oil tankers in Northern BC coast

All the above enacted by the Liberal government

 

[Chowda7]

With the old policies between 2006 and 2015 (when Trudeau was elected) 4 new pipelines or expansions were completed. Zero since then.

 

[darwink]

With the old policies between 2006 and 2015 (when Trudeau was elected) 4 new pipelines or expansions were completed. Zero since then.

None since the Harper government tried to speed up the approval process in 2012.

And Albertans, we can tell ourselves that EE was cancelled due to changes- but it was cancelled because it was an expensive project that would have been expensive to operate and need massive tolls. And when Trump was elected it was no longer a better option than Keystone XL. EE has no prospective customers. It would be great for the differential if it had been magically open by now (which it wouldn’t of been), but few wanted to use it as the first option. They wanted others to use it. It would have been the longest crude pipeline, and therefor the highest (or amongst the highest) tolled crude pipeline in the world.

 

[Chowda7]

None since the Harper government tried to speed up the approval process in 2012.

And Albertans, we can tell ourselves that EE was cancelled due to changes- but it was cancelled because it was an expensive project that would have been expensive to operate and need massive tolls. And when Trump was elected it was no longer a better option than Keystone XL. EE has no prospective customers. It would be great for the differential if it had been magically open by now (which it wouldn’t of been), but few wanted to use it as the first option. They wanted others to use it. It would have been the longest crude pipeline, and therefor the highest (or amongst the highest) tolled crude pipeline in the world.

Capacity was fully booked on EE by suppliers. Those were transferred to Keystone after EE was cancelled

 

[darwink]

Capacity was fully booked on EE by suppliers. Those were transferred to Keystone after EE was cancelled

Yes - but XL was assumed to be dead. Then it was alive and was a better option than EE.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

I will repeat what I said in an earlier post.

Prior to 2015, there were 4 major pipeline builds planned. Since then, two have been cancelled and two are on hold. Fast forward to December next year .... how much confidence should Albertans have that construction will be well underway on the remaining two??
Pipeline capacity has been identified as the single greatest issue facing the energy industry. Pipelines are widely considered the safest, least 'carbon emitting' method for transporting oil & gas which should satisfy the Liberals climate agenda. However getting pipelines built is not a national priority, and won't be until the political will (both federally and provincially) is there to see it done. Unfortunately, the output of Friday's First Ministers meeting is further evidence that the will is not there.
This is not about getting noisy and angry. This is about doing the right thing for the country.

 

[darwink]

It is a national priority - no one has identified a path to build them that the government isn't pursuing! The government could have let TMX die multiple times and didn't.

And no, KXL and EE in only a very unlikely scenario would both be built.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

From Rosemary Barton's interview with J.T., the day before the First Ministers meeting.

RB: But because you've bought it (the TM pipeline) already, with my tax dollars, and everybody's tax dollars, it has to go ahead. It has to go ahead in some form and by some route, does it not?

PMJT: Well we bought a existing pipeline and the option to move it forward and we are going to follow what the court laid out as the way to do this the right way, and to come to the right decision for whether or not it's in Canada's national interest and that's what we're doing.

RB: But you believe that it is?

PMJT: I have said consistently we need to get our resources to new markets, but we need to do it in the right way. The problem that we had for a decade under the previous government is they weren't preoccupied with doing things in the right way. They just wanted to try and get things done, and what that led to was not getting things done at all.
Right now, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion for example, goes hand in hand with putting a price on pollution and actually reaching our Paris targets. Because we know that as we get our oil resources to new markets we bring in more wealth that can pay for that transition and the innovation, while at the same time, Alberta has chosen to put an absolute cap on oil sands emissions which will allow us to reach those Paris targets.

Two things jump out at me:

1) He really is not convinced that TMX is, or will be in Canada's national interest. The week before this interview, he apologized to indigenous group for Canada not 'listening' to them more during the regulatory approval process. I am surmising that he has left them with the impression that Canada needs their consent before we move forward with TMX. What are the chances that all of these groups will consent in the national interest? Does that mean that if they do not consent, and the ... ah...whales don't consent ...then it is not the 'right way'. Will that be his out for not building it?

2) He NOT in favour of any further oil sand expansion. Bill C69 pretty much will guarantee that.

It is not exactly a pro-energy agenda and Alberta & Saskatchewan have every reason to be outraged.

 

[darwink]

It is important to remember that cabinet is the regulator for pipelines. It is the body that also owes the fiduciary duty to Indigenous people. So until the consultation is complete, the report is delivered to cabinet, there is time for cabinet to consider the document, then a decision is made, to have a member of cabinet state that a particular outcome was certain, would mean the cabinet decision would be thrown into doubt by the court, and perhaps overturned.

IIRC correctly the cheerleadering of Gateway was one of the many reasons cited in the overturning of its approval.

One of the conditions of the TMX approval is the emissions cap for the large emitters of the oil sands at 100 megatonnes, which is a provincial law.

Hence my much earlier comment that people are mad that politicians aren't loud. But being loud makes the process fail, and has. Almost government as a performance art rather than as a process.

 

[Calgcouver]

None since the Harper government tried to speed up the approval process in 2012.

And Albertans, we can tell ourselves that EE was cancelled due to changes- but it was cancelled because it was an expensive project that would have been expensive to operate and need massive tolls. And when Trump was elected it was no longer a better option than Keystone XL. EE has no prospective customers. It would be great for the differential if it had been magically open by now (which it wouldn’t of been), but few wanted to use it as the first option. They wanted others to use it. It would have been the longest crude pipeline, and therefor the highest (or amongst the highest) tolled crude pipeline in the world.