[JonnyCanuck]

It sounds like it's more of a benefit to the U.S. than I thought. Either way, it'll be nice to see it get built.

The benefit to Canada with Keystone XL is to export more of our heavy crude. The benefits to the U.S is that 1) they get to buy it at a discount, refine it and then sell it at a profit to other countries. 2) While it is true that there are very few full time jobs created, there will be thousands of temporary construction jobs in the U.S. 3) All of this is at no cost to their country.
We need another pipeline to the coast that does not have to go through the U.S. Kinder Morgan will help but it looks like Keystone XL is the one that's going to get built. What does that say about our ability to control our own destiny with respect to oil exports?

 

[Surrealplaces]

Net Migration into Alberta on the rise.
https://twitter.com/trevortombe

 

[Surrealplaces]

Some more graphage
https://twitter.com/ian_meredith

 

[Oddball]

I have to think that's this is a good sign though. Here's hoping we finally see an uptick in employment again along with this.

 

[darwink]

Employment is humming away nicely. Employment passed the record high. Unfortunately the labour force has grown, and overtime collapsed to nearly nothing and normal hourly wages have dropped for hourly workers.

 

[Oddball]

Employment for the Calgary CMA has been stagnant to declining since July. The improvement in our unemployment rate has pretty much just been driven by a plummeting participation rate over the last few months.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47

This doesn't simply appear to be a seasonal effect either. Here's the same period for 2016:

It also happens to show that a participation rate of 73% isn't outside the norm. As I pointed out in a previous post what seems exceptional is subsequent 0.7% drops from September to October and October to November in 2017. Still there's no denying that we're better off year over year. It's the last 4-5 months of trending that's the worry.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I'm not worried. Just looks like a fuckload of people retiring, which is a trend that will only accelerate as we head into the 2020s. The first of the baby boomers are already in their mid 70s, while the last of them are in their mid 50s, many of whom are retiring early.

 

[Cowtown]

Labor force numbers were looking good until late summer and then slowed down. I know the 2016 graph shows numbers going up in September, but don't they normally go down when many students return back to school? Maybe 2016 was a case where a lot of jobs were created right at a time when numbers normally go down.

Employment for the Calgary CMA has been stagnant to declining since July. The improvement in our unemployment rate has pretty much just been driven by a plummeting participation rate over the last few months.

.

 

[Oddball]

Labor force numbers were looking good until late summer and then slowed down. I know the 2016 graph shows numbers going up in September, but don't they normally go down when many students return back to school? Maybe 2016 was a case where a lot of jobs were created right at a time when numbers normally go down.

Here's a chart of the the participation rate for each of the last five years.

The participation rate does trend down on average over the period as you can see, but it looks like the trend starts in June and not in September when you'd expect it to. Additionally you can see the years themselves are fairly erratic. 2017 and 2015 to a lesser extent act the way you might expect if students were a big cause, but 2016 is nearly the exact opposite. The rest is kinda mushy.It's a logical supposition, but I don't really think the data supports that being a major driver in the participation rate. If it is a factor this might be something that Statcan has already accounted for in their adjustments as these are the seasonally adjusted figures. (same source table)

I'm not worried. Just looks like a fuckload of people retiring, which is a trend that will only accelerate as we head into the 2020s. The first of the baby boomers are already in their mid 70s, while the last of them are in their mid 50s, many of whom are retiring early.

This is probably happening to a degree, and as you say, it will only accelerate as time goes on, but I have my doubts as to whether that's really what's diving the declines. 73% is at the low end of the normal bound for Calgary from the data I've looked at. I think Calgary and Alberta have some extenuating factors that mitigate this compared to some other parts of the country. We're still a young city and we've got a lot of net positive international immigration. If anything, I'm betting our emigrants skew older and our immigrants skew younger. We may not get smashed like some other jurisdictions. And if anything, I don't think that's the primary cause in this case.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I'm not worried. Just looks like a fuckload of people retiring, which is a trend that will only accelerate as we head into the 2020s. The first of the baby boomers are already in their mid 70s, while the last of them are in their mid 50s, many of whom are retiring early.

Seems like a fair number of people retiring, as I know personally quite a few. Some are retiring at the typical time of early 60's but I know others in the their late 50's who were laid off with packages and have decided not to go back to work. It makes me wonder how many people there are in that situation.

 

[Oddball]

Here's a full year chart for the participation rate if anyone is curious. If there is anything cyclical about it, it appears that participation troughs in November and peaks in April. But wer're talking about a pretty narrow band anyway. Only about 0.5%.

 

[Surrealplaces]

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local...tter-retail-results-reflect-economic-recovery
Calgary mall operators say better retail results reflect economic recovery
Not a lot of numbers, but this is from the article:

In that time, sales at the mall were up by three to five per cent over the previous year, while Boxing Day results were 3.5 per cent better than in 2016, said Moller.

 

[Surrealplaces]

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/albertas-economy-is-diversifying-but-is-it-enough

Alberta's economy is diversifying, but is it enough?

 

[Surrealplaces]

Frances Donald‏@francesdonald
Canada's fracture into two economies is now healing as Alberta's unemployment rate comes back to earth. In Dec, AB added 26k jobs and mostly in full-time work. Unemployment down to 6.9% (from 8.8% Jan '17).

 

[Oddball]

November to December is the first month over month growth in employment for the Calgary CMA since June to July. The dropping participation rate was also arrested. Hopefully this is a legitimate turning of the corner and not just a speed bump on the way down. Some reason for positivity though.