GoVertical said:
livewirecalgary.com

Green Line full Stage 1 in peril as cost escalations could take bite out of budget

Green Line cost escalation due to market volatility could pose “a serious risk” to the $5.5 billion transit line, but mitigation measures are in place, said the project CEO. Calgary’s Executive Com…
livewirecalgary.com livewirecalgary.com
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Its the city's largest infrastructure project ever. I just assumed it would take courage to get the full stage 1 done. I predict Shepard to Ramsay will go ahead, there will be a delay on the tunnel portion to Eau Claire but it too will get done; using the cut and cover method. The herald put out an article not long ago with the gentleman running the project pretty much buttering us up for today's news. I saw some on council asking for third-party oversight, isn't that what got us to this point, administrative delay after administrative delay? I wonder what-if we just could've pressed ahead all those years ago. Everyone talks about a can-do Calgary attitude, I've personally never seen it and I've lived here since 1997. Maybe that mentality existing in the 70's and 80's and I think people attribute the '88 Olympics to that attitude but in my opinion that attitude hasn't been here for a long time. When Oil prices rose so did people's ambitions, or at least they use to. Now our property is valued because of its relatively low cost compared to other major markets. Wasn't that what was always going to bring people and business here? We're a major city without the major (relative) barrier to entry.

The green line will have a huge price tag, but it will be built, perhaps in stages, but the cat is out of the bag. You don't spend all the money on enabling works to not "do the damn thing". The project will probably be value engineered down a bit but I'll reserve judgment on what means until I see it.
 
Couldn't recall next steps for the Green Line... In a Global News article from January 25th (https://globalnews.ca/news/8536540/...calating-for-calgarys-green-line-lrt-project/), I see the quote:

"Fairbairn urged councillors to “stay grounded” upon hearing of the risk of cost escalations, and that there there is a focus on getting a “clear understanding” of costs before any changes are made to the scope of the project or alternatives.

“We really won’t have enough concrete information around a budget forecast until we receive prices from proponents,” he said.

Committee heard the next contract would be released for bids at the end of the first quarter of this year."

As we near the end of the first quarter and the release of the next contract I'm curious to see what happens. The talk of project cost escalation was all pre-invasion of Ukraine, so you would have to think things are looking worse not better. In a previous post RFQ was set for Q1 2022 and RFP for Q3 2022. The rubber is about to hit the road for those on the inside of this project.
 
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My building has a notice up that there will be exploratory work going on for the subway starting yesterday to April 10 or so along 1 Street and 10 Ave for some reason.

39F20C43-16CF-42AD-B699-0A054C005EE9.jpeg



And the work is def going on today…

255B611B-8EC9-4611-A682-9056D36A6B27.jpeg
 
MichaelS said:
The RFQ shortlist has been released:
newsroom.calgary.ca

Bow Transit Connectors and City Link Partners shortlisted through RFQ for Phase 1 of Green Line LRT Project

Following the Request for Qualifications (RFQ) for construction of Phase 1, from Shepard to Eau Claire, the Green Line Board has approved Bow Transit Connectors (Barnard Constructors of Canada, LP, Flatiron Constructors Canada Ltd, and WSP Canada Inc) and City Link Partners (Aecon Infrastructure...
newsroom.calgary.ca newsroom.calgary.ca
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It's starting to feel a little more real now.
 
IF consruction begins. Already had one Councillor ask at a committee meeting last week if we have reached the point where we just need to pull the plug on this project, given the massive inflation in costs. Response was along the lines of "we won't know for sure until the RFPs are opened and reviewed".
 
MichaelS said:
IF consruction begins. Already had one Councillor ask at a committee meeting last week if we have reached the point where we just need to pull the plug on this project, given the massive inflation in costs. Response was along the lines of "we won't know for sure until the RFPs are opened and reviewed".
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It is a good sign the project hasn't failed yet. $3.6 billionish in the construction kitty. Can remove maybe $300 million of scope (Eau Claire and north) if there are huge problems. Plus all the contingency already in there.

The important part is all of the remaining funds are one project which helps greatly with risk management. With a split project (tunnel vs not) the tunnel risk is held solely by the tunnel project winner which would likely have raised costs so much as to cause failed procurement.
 
Unpopular opinion but I still don't understand the reluctance to reconsider BRT. I hope I'm wrong, but stubbornness for trains is the biggest threat for a boondoggle here.

Maybe general transit ridership will recover soon. Or maybe it won't.
 
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