Mountain Man
Senior Member
Kenny is too well known in politics to lose, even as he alienates his base. This whole fair deal panel should be reason to ditch Kenny, but people think emotionally, not logically in politics.
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- Thread starter Silence&Motion
- Start date
Dārayavauš
Active Member
Mountain Man
Senior Member
Kenny wants private healthcare and wants to change the education curriculum to something completely ridiculous. Is it just me, or was electing the UCP a major error on the part of Albertans?
darwink
Senior Member
I take a somewhat different view: the error is not Albertans.
The error is the UCP in assuming they have a mandate to do large trans-formative things when Albertans were convinced by their changes around the edges promises to shave off irritants (like parent's having not learned the new method of laying out multiplication and division when they were in school, making them feel the new method was weird).
They're in the process of making the same error Prentice did, but on a far grander scale: assuming that Albertans' tax aversion is conservatism. And that what they interpret as conservatism is widespread discontent with the evolution of modern liberalism, instead of just deep discontent by a few loud groups.
The error is the UCP in assuming they have a mandate to do large trans-formative things when Albertans were convinced by their changes around the edges promises to shave off irritants (like parent's having not learned the new method of laying out multiplication and division when they were in school, making them feel the new method was weird).
They're in the process of making the same error Prentice did, but on a far grander scale: assuming that Albertans' tax aversion is conservatism. And that what they interpret as conservatism is widespread discontent with the evolution of modern liberalism, instead of just deep discontent by a few loud groups.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
I don't know, it seemed pretty obvious that Kenny had an ideological agenda, but people were suckered in by his promises to create jobs.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
It was from the start, and that fact was obvious to many of us who knew this is the direction they were going to take us.... because they told us this is where they're going to take us.
O-tac
Active Member
the scary part is that even if the NDP wins the next election Kenney and his band of nutcases will have done irreversible damage.
darwink
Senior Member
Which is both good (hopefully people will realize political choices have consequences) and bad (damages suck).
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
Thank gods Kenney's numerous blunders are finally starting to resonate with our population...
Some more recent numbers/stats Looks like the UCP could be in trouble if an election was held today.
leantossup.ca
Alberta Provincial Model | LeanTossup
leantossup.ca
darwink
Senior Member
And it is going to get more muddled before it gets less so. Expect at least one more on the right party to come up with some serious resources behind it.
ByeByeBaby
Active Member
Ah, LeanTossup, the same tosspots that projected Biden would get 383 electoral votes, winning Florida, Texas, and Ohio and had Biden as winning the popular vote by 10%, double the actual margin. Although to be fair, they were fairly accurate in Alberta in 2019. If they shared any methodology whatsoever, I'd have more confidence in them, but right now it's a black box, a pretty map and wishful thinking.
Certainly recent polling hasn't been great for the UCP; they are of course wildly unpopular in Edmonton, and recent polling in Calgary has them at 29% versus 42% for the NDP, with them leading 33% to 27% in the Rest of the province. But there's a very large undecided share; 13% in Calgary and 19% in the Rest, plus substantial shares in the Wildrose Independent party (7% in Calgary and 13% in the Rest). The undecided voters are almost all conservative leaning and low-participation voters. The dynamics of a campaign can really change these voters; as a comparison, models in the 2015 Federal election tended to show a slim Liberal or Conservative minority, because there was a large share of undecided voters who weren't being included; in reality, most of them hadn't decided who they were voting for, but had sure as hell decided they were sick of Harper and jumped on Trudeau's bandwagon as it became clear he was the guy to beat Harper. I'm not sure I'd bet money on all of those undecided and third party voters remaining so if it becomes clear in a close election that voting third party will hand the reins over to Notley.
Certainly recent polling hasn't been great for the UCP; they are of course wildly unpopular in Edmonton, and recent polling in Calgary has them at 29% versus 42% for the NDP, with them leading 33% to 27% in the Rest of the province. But there's a very large undecided share; 13% in Calgary and 19% in the Rest, plus substantial shares in the Wildrose Independent party (7% in Calgary and 13% in the Rest). The undecided voters are almost all conservative leaning and low-participation voters. The dynamics of a campaign can really change these voters; as a comparison, models in the 2015 Federal election tended to show a slim Liberal or Conservative minority, because there was a large share of undecided voters who weren't being included; in reality, most of them hadn't decided who they were voting for, but had sure as hell decided they were sick of Harper and jumped on Trudeau's bandwagon as it became clear he was the guy to beat Harper. I'm not sure I'd bet money on all of those undecided and third party voters remaining so if it becomes clear in a close election that voting third party will hand the reins over to Notley.
Urban Outdoorsman
Active Member
I'm curious if the Alberta Party will ever make serious gains. With the right leader I suspect they could take away votes from both the UCP and NDP. Could make for an interesting minority situation
Mountain Man
Senior Member
I think Nenshi should join the Alberta Party, could probably make waves.
darwink
Senior Member
Votes do not equal seats. In most scenarios a much stronger Alberta party causes an NDP majority. Not a minority. Unitl it becomes strong enough to cause a 3 way split in seats, but that is more unlikely.