Richard White
Senior Member
This may vault military spending into an election issue moving forward. I can see the conservatives capitalizing on it to win.
This leak exposes Trudeau and the Liberals as being weak.
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- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
This may vault military spending into an election issue moving forward. I can see the conservatives capitalizing on it to win.
This leak exposes Trudeau and the Liberals as being weak.
Northern Light
Superstar
Perhaps it should; but I'd be surprised to see it become a material vote mover.
The only problem with this is that defense spending wasn't any higher under Harper.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Pretty much.
Very unlikely. The broader public doesn't really care and thinks anything to do with the military should be relegated to the US.
I wouldn't say weak. Duplicitous at worst for telling Canadians one thing and our allies something else.
But underspending on defence is a bipartisan consensus. Harper spent even less. And that was when the CAF was substantially engaged in Afghanistan. This government is actually closer to the low end of Chrétien spending. But the force is facing so many obsolescence issues simultaneously that demands are outpacing investments, which is why things don't look great.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Pretty much.
Very unlikely. The broader public doesn't really care and thinks anything to do with the military should be relegated to the US.
I wouldn't say weak. Duplicitous at worst for telling Canadians one thing and our allies something else.
But underspending on defence is a bipartisan consensus. Harper spent even less. And that was when the CAF was substantially engaged in Afghanistan. This government is actually closer to the low end of Chrétien spending. But the force is facing so many obsolescence issues simultaneously that demands are outpacing investments, which is why things don't look great.
What's interesting is how Harper started off with an increase in defence spending starting in the 2006 minority government but did an about face by the time the won his majority in 2011. I mean the 2008 Great Recession is a thing but you'd imagine he would prioritize defence, but nope.
Also the post-1988 decline is very much tied into the so called "peace dividend" post-cold war. Anyways, it seems that we are having a "crisis" of being for the Federal government - that we have effectively neutered it as a level of government that can pursue nation building independent of provincial priorities.
AoD
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kEiThZ
Superstar
His boost in spending lined up with a Martin revival and some major procurements that were needed for the war. It wasn't some major change in baseline. And then following the war, he made cuts, which is a big part of the rust out we face now. To some extent, he sandbagged the Trudeau government.
Absolutely, and a lot of our allies did the same. The problem now that is we (the collective West) need to boost defence spending a little bit to be able to deter our adversaries. Not to Cold War levels. But at least to the point that we can all field credible capabilities. And this is where Canada is behind. We don't even have capabilities needed for homeland defence if we're really honest about it.
Honestly, I don't even think anybody would really fault Canada for not hitting 2% that much, But if you're in Europe facing down a revanchist Putin, it's kinda hard to take Canadians (living in a G7 country) seriously when they can't even get to say 1.6-1.8%.
More broadly this is now a Canadian habit. We routinely push for high multilateral targets which we never meet. Defence spending. Climate goals. Foreign aid. Always the same pattern.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Something to consider as we discuss how much we should spend on defence is how much more turbulent the world is getting. It's worse than the 2000s with terrorism. Do we have obligation to help stabilize the world and protect innocents?
www.economist.com
In Sudan and beyond, the trend towards global peace has been reversed
Conflicts are growing longer. Blame complexity, criminality and climate change
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Something to consider as we discuss how much we should spend on defence is how much more turbulent the world is getting. It's worse than the 2000s with terrorism. Do we have obligation to help stabilize the world and protect innocents?
In Sudan and beyond, the trend towards global peace has been reversed
Conflicts are growing longer. Blame complexity, criminality and climate change
Obligation out of humanitarian concerns is one thing; the failure to act and leaving it as an opportunity for the less scrupulous to fill in the vacuum is another.
AoD
kEiThZ
Superstar
True.
But I'm not sure most Canadians are onboard. There's a bit of recency bias to thinking that foreign entanglements are all American imperialism. Also a prevalent view that great power competition is just between the US and China, that we have nothing to do with. I just don't think people understand that these voids are filled by Russia and China and that reduces the operating space for the free world. It's especially difficult, I find, for most people to understand and process sub-threshold competition and hybrid warfare. This requires a trust in our foreign policy establishments that most people find difficult to accept in my experience.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Part of the reason we have to rely so much on allies is because we lack enough high readiness forces to do our extractions. Having airlift is just one piece of the puzzle.
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www.theglobeandmail.com
Ottawa eyes ‘departure assistance’ from allies to get trapped Canadians out of Sudan
Trudeau says Canada has aircraft in region, but it remains unclear if Canada will go into Sudan or simply airlift those transported to neighbouring countries by allies
www.theglobeandmail.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
Good piece about the growing disaster that is our Search and Rescue fleet.
skiesmag.com
Rescuing SAR in Canada - Skies Mag
An in-depth analysis of the issues that plague the CC-295 Kingfisher and CH-149 Cormorant aircraft upgrade initiatives to date.
skiesmag.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
Canadian military evacuation flights grounded in Sudan: sources - National | Globalnews.ca
Sources say there is confusion over whether the original takeoff order will continue or if those who missed their slot will go to the back of the line amid the crisis in Sudan.
globalnews.ca
And this is part of why Canada needs a more capable expeditionary force.
kEiThZ
Superstar
SCOTT TAYLOR: If submarines are replaced, who will serve on them? | SaltWire
During last week's Summit meeting in Seoul, between Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, there was speculation in the media ...
www.saltwire.com
lenaitch
Senior Member
A very valid point regardless of whether the preferred direction is diesel-electric, AIP or nuclear (which I think is a conning tower-too-far for Canadians), The CAF needs to become a more sought after employer - somehow.SCOTT TAYLOR: If submarines are replaced, who will serve on them? | SaltWire
During last week's Summit meeting in Seoul, between Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, there was speculation in the media ...
kEiThZ
Superstar
It's interesting to see the mainstream analyst view get closer to mine:
Northern Light
Superstar
A question; the Canadian Forces produced a paper back in 2017 or thereabouts on ways to use diesel subs under arctic ice.
The paper is now clearly out of date; but I'd be interested in your take on the state of the technologies discussed and whether these would be practical.