[nfitz]

Chretien was facing a divided right, which paid massive dividends. His success was based more on the spread in support (usually at least 15 ppts) between his party and the Reform/CCRAP.

In the 2004 election, the Liberals came within 20 seats of a majority with about 37% of the vote compard to 30% for the Tories, and there was no divided right in that election (other than the BQ). In 2008 the Tories were within 12 seats of a majority with 37.7% of the vote.

If the Liberals get 40%, they have a good chance of getting a majority. Though I haven't seen a poll that puts them past 37%, so we seem to be in Liberal minority territory if an election were held today.

 

[afransen]

In the 2004 election, the Liberals came within 20 seats of a majority with about 37% of the vote compard to 30% for the Tories, and there was no divided right in that election (other than the BQ). In 2008 the Tories were within 12 seats of a majority with 37.7% of the vote.

If the Liberals get 40%, they have a good chance of getting a majority. Though I haven't seen a poll that puts them past 37%, so we seem to be in Liberal minority territory if an election were held today.

You conveniently left out the fact that the CPC had an 11.4 ppt spread over the Liberals and still did not win a majority.

 

[adma]

I think redistribution would actually be a negative. If a Liberal could pull off a Gary Merasty-level campaign in the reserves and run a good ground campaign in the city itself pulling Liberal voters, the generally low turnout could put them over the top.

Do you mean a negative, or a positive? I'm not thinking of redistribution carving out the reserves, I'm thinking of redistribution carving out the ranchlands in the southern part of the riding...

 

[adma]

If the Liberals get 40%, they have a good chance of getting a majority. Though I haven't seen a poll that puts them past 37%, so we seem to be in Liberal minority territory if an election were held today.

But if you factor out the "wasted" Green vote, 37% might as well be 40%...

 

[afransen]

But if you factor out the "wasted" Green vote, 37% might as well be 40%...

Good point. I hadn't thought of that. The Bloc punching above its weight in terms of seats per vote is counteracted somewhat by the Greens punching below their weight. However, their vote has a habit of evaporating on election day.

 

[unimaginative2]

And the NDP, of course. It's always been that way.

Do you mean a negative, or a positive? I'm not thinking of redistribution carving out the reserves, I'm thinking of redistribution carving out the ranchlands in the southern part of the riding...

Oh, then absolutely. You're right that it's the southern part that would be hived off and not the north. The best thing that could happen would be for it to become a kind of special "northern" riding where it's allowed to have fewer people than other ridings, like Churchill or Labrador.

The other redistribution I'm really waiting for is Dufferin-Caledon. Everybody says that it's the safest Tory riding outside Eastern Ontario, but Markham was the safest (the only) Tory riding in the province...until it became the safest Liberal riding in the country. If they could move Dufferin out and make a pure Caledon riding, the Vaughanization of Bolton could mean a dramatic shift.

 

[adma]

Though Markham's 1997 Tory blip had more to do with the Jag Bhaduria backlash (and a credible-enough PC standard-bearer) than anything.

I'm supposing that Caledon's still too small for its own seat without assistance from, say, Orangeville, or Georgetown, or King Township, or even the upper reaches of Brampton--don't be surprised if, instead, Bolton's carved out and into a "Bolton-Gore" electoral entity...

 

[unimaginative2]

Though Markham's 1997 Tory blip had more to do with the Jag Bhaduria backlash (and a credible-enough PC standard-bearer) than anything.

Of course, but the fact that it was Tory-friendly enough to be the only Tory seat in the province, regardless of a dubious previous MP, says something.

I'm supposing that Caledon's still too small for its own seat without assistance from, say, Orangeville, or Georgetown, or King Township, or even the upper reaches of Brampton--don't be surprised if, instead, Bolton's carved out and into a "Bolton-Gore" electoral entity...

That's definitely going to be a riding where the local MPs will be fighting to try to influence the redistribution process. As I recall, Tilson is from the Dufferin part of the riding, so he'll probably just stay up there wherever they get stuck. Maybe with the southern bits of Simcoe or northern Wellington? Obviously tacking on a tranche of Brampton would be the best case scenario for the Liberals. It'd probably become a safe seat. If they lump Dufferin in with Wellington, perhaps Tilson will have to fight for the nomination with that area's incumbent. Will anybody take my wager on who'll get central party support in that contest?

 

[lordmandeep]

All I would say is this ads are...

EPIC FAIL...

 

[nfitz]

You conveniently left out the fact that the CPC had an 11.4 ppt spread over the Liberals and still did not win a majority.

I'm not sure your point ... it's not the spread that does it in a 5-pary system. A 3-party system perhaps, but not a 5-party system. I'm surprised it was only 11.4%!