Mountain Man
Senior Member
They are still predicting 200 000 businesses will close nation wide after this, what a number! I've been lucky to have been consistently busy this year, but so many others are pretty much fucked...
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- Thread starter Mountain Man
- Start date
CBBarnett
Senior Member
Well - he may have saved them for 3 weeks. I really feel for the small business side - but I don't think there is much long-term hope out what was proposed. It's an incredibly difficult issue to solve - perhaps impossible to save them all (and unclear if that is a reasonable goal in the first place). But by choosing to ignore the virus for as long as this government has, he's sealed many fates regardless. Action and inaction both have consequences and when you are a leader, they bear equal culpability.
Remember, the whole problem is we have an exponentially growing, deadly pandemic. You need less invasive measures if you act early and manage things, you need far more effort if you act late. We are very late into the game.
If 1 month ago, Kenney had acted with the measures he applied yesterday, that might have been enough to avoid harsher actions because the case count was so much lower. He didn't, now we have +13,000 active cases spread everywhere, broken contact tracing and a rapidly filling up hospital system - it's very doubtful that small measures will be enough to prevent a health system overrun (1), instill confidence in people to go and spend money in public at these businesses that remain open (2), reduce the rate of infection rapidly enough so that 1 month from now we are in a much better shape and people are comfortable again (3).
If 3 months ago, Kenney's government put together and shared their road map and plan - with clear instructions, thresholds and expectations for the fall 2nd wave for businesses and schools, much of the disruption and uncertainty would be mitigated. He could have worked and communicated in alignment with the Federal government to communicate/coordinate their various relief and financial measures to support businesses and people. Trust in the government's approach would have been improved so you'd see better adherence to rules, businesses would have more time to plan, schools would have more time to plan and clear direction could be provided. This was entirely possible given the information available to the Province but did not happen.
So what are we and small businesses left with - a middle ground that might not even work. What seems most likely is a painfully slow reduction in new case growth over a few weeks (if anything), a crippled health system, and still too high of transmission risk to return anywhere close to normal activity. Meanwhile businesses are left in limbo with collapsed sales, some won't qualify for federal supports because they weren't closed, and the big box stores continue to operate like normal anyways. Saving a few for a few weeks, might kill many times more within a few years.
Oh and as a side-effect - we also will have a few hundred more dead Albertans as well with a few thousand with long-term health effects caused by COVID thanks to an entirely preventable problem that government inaction enabled. If this was the March first wave, I would have some sympathy for Kenney - new virus, global panic, no testing or transmission monitoring available - easy to get it wrong as very little was known and action was required.
They had all the time they need to prepare and plan to mitigate the worst of the health and economic impacts - they did almost nothing except begin setting up false dichotomies of health v. the economy and using every opportunity to line up the real people that are responsible for this crisis - media that's too depressing, overpaid nurses and doctors, AHS, schools, Ottawa - even though they are in charge of the COVID response. Hell, some MLAs went as far as saying that we shouldn't be counting cases because it puts everyone in a bad mood.
Instead of doing anything - Kenney opted for a Monday night cram session with the cabinet to come up with all this. There is no excuse for him or this government this time around, as much as they will continue to try to work the narrative to say. As a result the long term consequences will be far worse for small businesses than the short-term "win" here.
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Enforcement is so key. If had enforcement in the first place we probably wouldn't be in this position. If they are going to keep businesses open, at least make sure there is enforcement happening so we don't have to shut down later after the deaths start piling up.
artvandelay
Active Member
I am happy with the new restrictions, although it's unfortunate that we are in position to need them in the first place. The provincial government has done a good job in addressing the pandemic thus far, my only gripe is the lack of enforcement in the last little while. Hefty fines and public shaming would have reduced the number of Halloween gathering that still occurred. I would also like to see a cap (in absolute numbers) on religious services rather than a percentage.
People need to keep in mind that the primary goal here is protect the healthcare system - not to stamp out the virus. It is going to be about finding the optimal level of public activity that allows for as many businesses to remain open as possible without straining the healthcare system. Our current active case load, on a per capita basis, is still lower than in Manitoba and far lower than the majority of US states. These new restrictions will hopefully turn the tide of the current wave.
People need to keep in mind that the primary goal here is protect the healthcare system - not to stamp out the virus. It is going to be about finding the optimal level of public activity that allows for as many businesses to remain open as possible without straining the healthcare system. Our current active case load, on a per capita basis, is still lower than in Manitoba and far lower than the majority of US states. These new restrictions will hopefully turn the tide of the current wave.
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
Saw some video from Chinook mall on the weekend. Clearly, the mall did not manage the number of people coming in. The retailers themselves were following the mandates but no one was managing the aisles and common areas. Apparently, groups of people met at the mall just to hang out, because they were not supposed to do that at home. Kenney is right in that people are still not taking personal responsibility.
In terms of restaurant activity, I went to a couple downtown. Bottlescrew Bill's busiest night of the week is usually Friday. During the pandemic, they would follow the 50% mandate and spent some money putting up barriers between tables etc. Their patio is now almost completely enclosed with heaters. With the new rules, it would appear that now even fewer people have decided to go to restaurants. There were 6 people in total when I as there on Friday from 6:30 to 8:00 pm. In fact for a whole hour no one came through the door with the exception of Door Dash drivers.
In terms of restaurant activity, I went to a couple downtown. Bottlescrew Bill's busiest night of the week is usually Friday. During the pandemic, they would follow the 50% mandate and spent some money putting up barriers between tables etc. Their patio is now almost completely enclosed with heaters. With the new rules, it would appear that now even fewer people have decided to go to restaurants. There were 6 people in total when I as there on Friday from 6:30 to 8:00 pm. In fact for a whole hour no one came through the door with the exception of Door Dash drivers.
darwink
Senior Member
If they're wearing masks, that is better than doing it at home. If they're hanging out in the food court sitting with a drink for an hour at a large table with many people ... not so much.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
This is a perfect example of why collective response is needed to collective action issues playing out at the scale of a mall. Individual stores can do the right thing, but all their efforts might be wasted if the mall management doesn't do the right thing. Where else is this exact example playing out right now, I wonder....
Most individual actors can and will follow the rules. But some can't or won't, especially in common blurry areas where it's not clear who polices it or what your personal responsible choice should be. If enough individual actors can't or won't follow the rules, it doesn't matter all the effort the majority made by following them - the disease still spreads, the cases still climb, the hospitals still get overwhelmed.
By relying on individual responsibility, what the Province is doing is making a (risky) bet that our capacity to accommodate all the negative consequences of the people that can't or won't follow the rules is sufficient. To do this successfully, you need to push as many people as possible to follow the rules - education and enforcement. Punish those who don't follow the rules to the degree that you incentivize them to start obeying them, while also offering incentives and supports to help more people that would follow the rules but can't - CERB, sick leave, child support benefits, isolation hotels, more funding for schools to socially distance in classrooms etc. The whole idea is to give an many incentives as possible to reduce the number of people who can't or won't follow the rules.
Here's the problem:
Imagine a perfect scenario for "personal responsibility": every single person follows the rules except those that have no choice but to break them (e.g. front-line workers etc.) In this scenario, you may *still* not have enough capacity to make up for the negative consequences of too many people unable to follow them. Large families can't isolate always from each other, children can't help their class has 35 students in it, front-line workers need to go to work - there's so many people out there that can't follow the rules even if they want to.
And clearly we aren't living in a perfect scenario:
- anti-mask groups marching with impunity and no tickets, while others face random and arbitrary ticketing - all this is undermining the main goal: to convince as many people as possible to follow the rules.
- Cutting school funding so class sizes are larger than they should be - you are forcing more people to not be socially distanced by doing this
- Failing to educate on all the programs available so individuals who want follow the rules have support to do so
To close off the original metaphor: if only there was a mall manager - but like for all of society - that can help out here with sensible, harsh and effective rules to stop crowding in all our Chinook Centre hallways ....
Mountain Man
Senior Member
Lots were wearing masks, and lots weren't. The ones who were fighting didn't seem concerned about social distance requirements. 
Mountain Man
Senior Member
1733 new cases today. I bet we break 2000 this week...
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
No doubt. As long as authorities allow crowds/gatherings like they did at Chinook Mall or the 'freedom' protests downtown with no regard to masking or physical distancing.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
Kenny is blaming the South Asian community for the high case load in the NE. What a tool...
Not related to Alberta, but I saw on the news police busted up a large house party in Toronto, 60 or 70 people. They gave 37 of the people $880 fines, and the two organizers got hit with $10,000 fines.
At first glance it seems drastic, but I would like to see that kind of thing here. Aside from the illnesses and deaths, and people not getting help for non-covid related illnesses, there is a heavy monetary loss because pf covid. It costs a lot of money for the contact tracing, medical staff, and ICUs. Those who flagrantly break the rules should share in some of that cost.
At first glance it seems drastic, but I would like to see that kind of thing here. Aside from the illnesses and deaths, and people not getting help for non-covid related illnesses, there is a heavy monetary loss because pf covid. It costs a lot of money for the contact tracing, medical staff, and ICUs. Those who flagrantly break the rules should share in some of that cost.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
Kenny has empowered peace officers to issue tickets, so I would expect a lot of them to be quite gung-ho with their new powers.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
Really!?! His supporters were literally just holding a massive anti-masking protest at Olympic Plaza, flagrantly violating public health orders against crowds of more than 10. No one got ticketed. Police just stood by and watched.