darwink
Senior Member
^ the problem with the reasoning is that cases are a leading indicator. And even with deaths being concentrated amongst the now vaccinated to date, we are quickly going to overwhelm that math with just a huge number of cases amongst everyone else. Fort McMurray is closing in on 2% of the population having an active infection. Alberta wide we’re above 0.5%. Sure, the rest of the population might only be 1-5% as likely to die from covid, but if the population is much larger and we infect them at a higher rate, we can end up with the same number of deaths or even more.
Plus if we only make decisions with lagging indicators (deaths lag a long time, hospitalizations in the mid range) but we know that the leading indicator leads to the lagging indicators - why are we waiting?
it seems a big portion of our population just don’t get that our healthcare systems incredible capacity to adapt to the strain doesn’t mean that there isn’t a crisis.
I’d say yes, keeping elementary schools and day cares open has great social good that can’t be provided even somewhat well if shutdown. So close the damn patios. Lower mall capacity to 3-5% if 15% is still above what they’d have in Boxing Day. Monitor and shut down places in violation. If a rodeo announces they are going ahead put up road blocks. Divert vaccines to warehouses and food processing settings with histories of outbreaks. Enforce work from home in businesses that have no reason to be in the office - including much of the provincial government.
we don’t have to choose the same policy mix to achieve the same ends. We can mix and match.
at this point it is utter carelessness. Who is going to be our last pandemic death in the province? The last 50? The last 500? Each and every one of those deaths can be avoided. Cuz even using standard insurance numbers, those 500 deaths are worth $4 billion bucks if avoided. Plus all those who rotated through ICU and likely will never return to anywhere near 100%.
we are so close to being over. By mid June we should have herd immunity, and by mid August rock solid maybe even extirpate the virus levels of herd immunity. We just need to get from here to there while killing the least amount of people.
Worst part is that those infected now who develop severe outcomes will be dying right around the time we’re getting close to herd immunity - and only in looking back for many will it be realized that our governments leadership was stupid and callous.
Plus if we only make decisions with lagging indicators (deaths lag a long time, hospitalizations in the mid range) but we know that the leading indicator leads to the lagging indicators - why are we waiting?
it seems a big portion of our population just don’t get that our healthcare systems incredible capacity to adapt to the strain doesn’t mean that there isn’t a crisis.
I’d say yes, keeping elementary schools and day cares open has great social good that can’t be provided even somewhat well if shutdown. So close the damn patios. Lower mall capacity to 3-5% if 15% is still above what they’d have in Boxing Day. Monitor and shut down places in violation. If a rodeo announces they are going ahead put up road blocks. Divert vaccines to warehouses and food processing settings with histories of outbreaks. Enforce work from home in businesses that have no reason to be in the office - including much of the provincial government.
we don’t have to choose the same policy mix to achieve the same ends. We can mix and match.
at this point it is utter carelessness. Who is going to be our last pandemic death in the province? The last 50? The last 500? Each and every one of those deaths can be avoided. Cuz even using standard insurance numbers, those 500 deaths are worth $4 billion bucks if avoided. Plus all those who rotated through ICU and likely will never return to anywhere near 100%.
we are so close to being over. By mid June we should have herd immunity, and by mid August rock solid maybe even extirpate the virus levels of herd immunity. We just need to get from here to there while killing the least amount of people.
Worst part is that those infected now who develop severe outcomes will be dying right around the time we’re getting close to herd immunity - and only in looking back for many will it be realized that our governments leadership was stupid and callous.
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