We don't know what the final modified Stampede is going to be but consider this
- the chuckwagon races are already a no go
- I heard somewhere that although the midway is on, it will be smaller and more spread out
- it appears the rodeo, a signature event, will proceed but what about international participants? Are they all going to be able to get here and probably have to quarantine (won't that be fun for them) beforehand?
- it's hard to envision the Western Showcase and Big 4 food pavilion being anything close to what we expect. For one, these are indoor venues. I don't know if most of the exhibitors and businesses are Alberta based. If so, they might be able to react and adjust. Not that easy if you are coming from outside the province. If these venues are still planned there will be fewer participants for sure.
I guess the biggest risk in all of this is ... What if come early July, we don't meet the re-opening metrics, COVID is still a big threat and the pressure is on to call off the Stampede at the last minute?? I would not want to be the person(s) making that decision or any of the businesses and participants making the trek to Calgary. Could this event not be pushed to later in the summer? It's not like everyone involved had these dates permanently blocked in their calendar. There was always the possibility that large outdoor events would not be allowed for a second year in a row.
I agree with you. A late August Stampede could have happened; it's the 1000 pound gorilla of events, even if it had to muscle out Regina or whoever out of their slot.
From
CTV:
The Grandstand Show, which traditionally followed the final heat of the races each night, has been rebranded as an 'Evening Show' and is set to include rodeo events, live music, The Young Canadians and fireworks. [...] This year's event is scheduled to include the Stampede Rodeo, midway, Elbow River Camp, Nashville North, The Big Four Roadhouse, BMO Market, Western Showcase, as well as agriculture showcases and competitions. [...] The Stampede does hope to have some version of a parade this year but is still in talks with the city about a potential permit.
The bolded part mine; three closely packed indoor venues, two of which feature lots of drinking. (The Western showcase is indoors as are most of the ag stuff, but they aren't as closely packed.) And while outdoor transmission is rare, the conditions of a parade -- standing elbow to elbow with random strangers for several hours in a row -- are riskier than 99% of outdoor time.
Unfortunately, the playbook on the last two waves have seen the UCP government delay and delay on closing until weeks after it's apparent to everyone that the case rate is skyrocketing, then finally acting -- with much higher cost (in lives and dollars) than if they had acted weeks earlier. I can't imagine a fourth wave being different.
If it's clear there's a massive outbreak happening by day 5 of the Stampede, nobody -- not Kenney, not Notley, not the ghost of Peter Lougheed -- would be tough enough to cancel day 6 to 10. So if the Stampede starts, it'll go. And even if it's clear there's a massive outbreak happening a couple of days before the Stampede starts, I'm not sure anybody would be tough enough to cancel it then. With a couple of weeks out? Maybe someone willing to be aggressive with closures for public safety even if some rural MLAs are angry about it, but that's not and never has been Jason Kenney, and in any case that would mean shutting down the level 3 opening before it even started. The Stampede is happening with this announcement, safe or not. (The midway enters the province in mid-June.)
I've talked to a handful of people since the announcement; friends, family, even basically strangers. None of them planned to go to the Stampede, but they've almost all been following the rules, gotten vaccinated, etc. My worry is that the Stampede will act as the mother of all attractors for people who aren't playing it safe, who aren't vaccinated, who don't follow the rules. And those folks shop and work in the same supermarkets that everybody goes to, they ride the same elevators as everybody else, they work in the same businesses, they fill up the same health care system.
A
concern is the rise in B.1.617.2, which is causing a surge right now in the UK, even though they are ahead of us on vaccinations -- especially with both doses. It's not the dominant strain here yet, but it could be.
I sure hope that it turns out to be a safe Stampede, and it could. But it may not be. I don't think I'd take that gamble with people's lives.
I wouldn't be surprised if by the middle of summer 95% of the people in the hospital will be people who weren't vaccinated.
About 2.7% of the population are immunocompromised, including people with HIV/AIDS, people fighting cancer, and transplant recipients. That's around 100,000 adults in Alberta, who may be vaccinated but won't be protected -- and who are at increased risk if/when they do get Covid-19.
