[Bureaucromancer]

Of course, by the time the Malvern corridor was dead some idiot had decided the only way to use the ROW was tunnelling north of Sheppard.

 

[Rainforest]

You honestly think that a refurbishment of the SRT and extension above ground to Malvern would cost the same as a Scarborough Subway to Sheppard?

Wow, thats just all sorts of wrong I dont even know where to begin....

You are right, the cost would most likely end up being over the $600 million estimated in 2006, but to say that it would cost the same as a subway line? Just...no....

and even to play devils advocate, even if it DID cost as much, it would service way more people and have a better ROI.

But it wouldnt. I'm sorry. Unless there was some kind of corruption involved, underground transit is always exponentially more expensive than above ground, especially when you take into account that a large portion of that transit system is already completed and would only need refurbishment...

First time you said it would cost 1/5 of SSE, but now you are asking if it will cost same as SSE.

I think it would be in-between. Less than SSE, but a lot more than 1/5 of SSE. My guess is around 2/3 of SSE. Don't forget that the section east of STC wouldn't be at grade, it would be partly elevated and partly tunneled.

And, the transfer at Kennedy would remain. Think whatever you want about that, but it is an irritant to the voters. In order to sell the SRT refurbishment to the voters, you would have to bundle it with the Sheppard section. And the whole package would cost more then SSE, which makes it harder to fund in one go.

 

[robmausser]

but now you are asking if it will cost same as SSE.

I was playing devils advocate. Even if it DID cost the same as SSE, it serves more people and has a better value.

That was my argument there. But it won't cost as much.

The transfer at Kennedy is really not a deal breaker in my opinion. Not like the one at Don Mills for the Sheppard LRT.

Because Kennedy will be a transit hub, with GO-RER, Line 2, Line 3 (if kept SRT) and the Eglinton Line.

So a lot of people will be transferring anyways to various modes of transportation, not all taking Line 2.

If GO-RER has fare integration and 7 minute frequencies like promised, youre going to see a lot of people transferring from Line 2 at Kennedy to a 6 minute ride right downtown on an electric GO train, and the lack of a transfer point on the subway extension is going to seem pretty silly, because people will be transferring at Kennedy anyways.

 

[Allandale25]

 

[Bureaucromancer]

Where in Toronto? Don't the vehicles get shipped to Wilson fairly regularly?

 

[syn]

I was playing devils advocate. Even if it DID cost the same as SSE, it serves more people and has a better value.

That was my argument there. But it won't cost as much.

The transfer at Kennedy is really not a deal breaker in my opinion. Not like the one at Don Mills for the Sheppard LRT.

Because Kennedy will be a transit hub, with GO-RER, Line 2, Line 3 (if kept SRT) and the Eglinton Line.

So a lot of people will be transferring anyways to various modes of transportation, not all taking Line 2.

If GO-RER has fare integration and 7 minute frequencies like promised, youre going to see a lot of people transferring from Line 2 at Kennedy to a 6 minute ride right downtown on an electric GO train, and the lack of a transfer point on the subway extension is going to seem pretty silly, because people will be transferring at Kennedy anyways.

That's a point that's consistently ignored in these discussions. We know from city stats that only 23% of transit trips that begin in Scarborough end downtown.

Overall you've outlined a sensible plan, and a far better use of transit dollars.

I guess that means you have 'mental issues'.

 

[Rainforest]

The issue some people claim to be "ignored", actually has been discussed multiple times, right in this thread. I guess, practice makes perfect , so let's rehash:

Those 23% trips that end in downtown are a minority of all Scarborough transit trips, but they are a single largest coherent group. The experience of those riders can be improved very substantially by improving the trunk service and reducing the transfers.

All other trips, Scarborough to Scarborough, to North York, to Etobicoke - are very disperse. If we were to chip out on the subway and use the saved funds to build another LRT line or a couple of BRT lines, those additional lines would not affect anywhere close to 23% of all Scarborough transit trips.

Local transit should be improved, too, but that's not a good reason to abandon the subway.

 

[syn]

In the same study that mentioned only 23% of transit trips starting in Scarborough are heading downtown, it was also stated:

"It is likely that there would be significant additional transit use within Scarborough if the local network was improved given the current low usage of transit for internal trips."

That would mean the 23% figure would actually drop if people in Scarborough had access to a comprehensive network that included rapid transit.

The SSE would be a wonderful project assuming there were no other options for getting downtown and we had unlimited funds to spend on transit. Unfortunately, neither of those is true.

Those heading downtown would see a much greater benefit from improved GO service.

The $6 billion for the SSE almost guarantees there won't be anymore significant transit dollars invested in Scarborough for a long, long time. Expecting $6 billion on the SSE, another $4 billion (it was $2.5 billion in 2011 so I'd say this is the minimum it would cost now) on a Sheppard extension and another $3 billion for an Eglinton East LRT is completely unrealistic. $13 billion+ just for Scarborough isn't going to happen.

@robmausser suggested a very sensible plan. How about this:

1) Refurbish the SRT
2) Make improved GO service a priority
3) Extend the Sheppard Line with a stop at STC, ending at or near the Zoo/Rogue National Park
4) Take the $6 billion for the SSE and build an Eglinton LRT that intersects with the Sheppard Line and goes up to Malvern, along with an LRT from Kennedy heading north (potentially with an STC connection). Or, take the $6 billlion and add it to the OL/RL budget, and build it underground to Don Mills.

This would all provide dramatcally improved service in Scarborough, and much greater access to downtown than the SSE alone.

Even if they only extended Sheppard to STC and the Eglinton LRT to Malvern, it's probably not much more expensive than the SSE, and provides far greater value.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

In terms of the above, consider that six minutes Kennedy to Union number with proper GO RER.

At even double that time it does more for passengers than eliminating the transfer.

 

[Rainforest]

1. The assumption that improving local transit in Scarborough will lead to a smaller % of trips to downtown, is dubious at best. What if better local transit results in more people taking a local route en route to downtown.

2. Improved GO service is desirable, but given the consistent failures to reorient GO to server intra-416 trips, it would not be wise to abandon the subway in the hopes of replacing it with GO.

3. Transit plan proposed by @syn will cost more than SSE. The Sheppard subway extension alone will cost almost as much as SSE, on top of that some money will need to be spent on the SRT refurbishment. And then, Eglinton East LRT .. not sure where the funding will come from in that scheme.

So, people express concerns that SSE will make it harder to get future transit funding for Scarborough, but their solution is apparently in making this round more expensive and that can easily degrade into do-nothing.

 

[syn]

In terms of the above, consider that six minutes Kennedy to Union number with proper GO RER.

At even double that time it does more for passengers than eliminating the transfer.

Exactly.

As we've seen in countless scenarios, the SSE isn't really going to make the trip downtown much shorter.

In terms of cost, let's not forget we'll be subsidizing the line for quite some time after it's finished.

I'd gladly see more spent for greater value.

Ford's plan is to see two, full capacity subway lines in Scarborough, meeting here. That's a waste of money.

Scarborough doesn't need two subway lines. Sheppard would be the more sensible choice, with light rail expansion to build out the network.

 

[Rainforest]

A lot of transit lines are subsidized these days, SSE will not stand out on that account.

The number of riders who wish to travel from the STC area south-west via Kennedy is about twice as large as the number of those who wish to travel west towards North York. Hence, trading SSE for a Sheppard extension doesn't strike like a great idea.

Furthermore, SSE has reached a much more advanced planning stage than a Sheppard subway extension. Trading the former for the latter would greatly increase the risk of neither getting built at the end.

 

[OneCity]

LOL. The line will be built, the Centre will be prospering, commuters will be moving freely from North Central & Central Scarborough and some peeps here on UT, (the heavy majority will never use the line) will still be whining like nothing before. Wont be as bad but can't wait for stage 2 when the Sheppard subway moves into design in the coming years for further decades of whining.
This subway is going to connect and open up the Centre and North Scarborough seamlessly to the greater network main artery, not just simply a local line. The local bus routes and feeders can and will be improved in many ways where necessary with either LRT, BRT or rapid bus. Thankfully already happening.

 

[11th]

A lot of transit lines are subsidized these days, SSE will not stand out on that account.

The number of riders who wish to travel from the STC area south-west via Kennedy is about twice as large as the number of those who wish to travel west towards North York. Hence, trading SSE for a Sheppard extension doesn't strike like a great idea.

Furthermore, SSE has reached a much more advanced planning stage than a Sheppard subway extension. Trading the former for the latter would greatly increase the risk of neither getting built at the end.

Line 4 extension to STC + OL extension the Sheppard, provides better coverage than just SSE. Cost may be comparable if they cheapen out on OL and uses the GO RH ROW.
But like you said, because SSE is at an advanced planning stage, we don't really have a choice at this point.

 

[Steve X]

Line 4 extension to STC + OL extension the Sheppard, provides better coverage than just SSE. Cost may be comparable if they cheapen out on OL and uses the GO RH ROW.
But like you said, because SSE is at an advanced planning stage, we don't really have a choice at this point.

This must replace the SRT or renovate it. They can't just leave the low income neighbourhood east of Lawrence East with nothing.

Providing better coverage is one thing, providing better coverage for low income neighbourhood is totally another thing. Line 4 extension to STC + OL extension the Sheppard does not help the city's priority neighbourhood in any way. Building transit to these neighbourhoods will increase ridership than others where people are already driving their luxury SUVs around.

Source: https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/neighbourhoods-communities/nia-profiles/