Unless Ford has been wounded politically far more than he appears, I don't see that happening. He is all-in against an LRT, and he and his cronies would prefer nothing to that solution. I don't know if the rest of council, many of whom jumped on the subways for Scarborough bandwagon, will now be able to reverse course in the face of Ford's intransigence.
I don't think that many of those swing votes (the ones who voted LRT the 1st time and subway the next) will have much trouble flipping back to the LRT in light of the bad plan as well as the non-arriving funds from the feds. It will only be the hardcore Fordites on council that will stick with the subway option.
You truly believed that the province all along was trying to force the city into the LRT plan? So a politically astute Minister of the government made a pre by-election speach saying that anything other than subways was declaring the people as "second class" knowing that his plan was to deliver to those people something other than subways and knowing that shortly after that (in political terms) he would have to face those same people in a general election knowing his opponents would remind the people of Scarborough that the Minister thinks they are second class?
I am no Glenn Murray fan but I think he is way, way, smarter than that.
The Province didn't want Council to change it in the first place. But when they did, it was better politically for them to go with it than try and fight it. It's much more beneficial for them to simply say "ok, we'll go with it, subway away!", knowing full well the additional funding wouldn't be coming. And even if by some miracle it did, they would still be on the right side of it.
And when it of course doesn't come through and everything comes crashing down, it comes crashing down at Council and Ford's feet, not at the Province's. Those comments about 2nd class citizens was elections talk, that I don't think will really be remembered come next election. And even if it does, you can easily spin that away by saying "We are working hard to reduce the deficit, and as a result weren't in the position to offer anything more than the $1.4 billion we already had allocated. The City of Toronto was counting on funding from other levels of government in order to complete the funding for the project. The CITY OF TORONTO was not able to secure this funding, so we had no choice but to return to the previously-funded LRT project."
It seems that Mr. Ford has called your bluff by supporting option #2. Karen Stintz seemed to still be holding out for option #1.
How about option #4. Connect the SRT to an elevated Eglintion LRT through Scarborough. This has all the benefits of the above options for a cost of a few hundred million. Why this has never been considered is beyond me.
It'll be interesting to see how Ford's support for that plays out. As I mentioned above though, it's the handful of councillors who started out voting LRT, then voted subway that really matter for this next vote. If they flip back, it doesn't matter very much what Ford says.
And yes, your Option #4 that would be my #1 preferred option. I can't even count how many times I've voiced my support for that option, haha. Unfortunately, it makes too much sense and therefore will never be put on the table.
I too think this is brilliant. This is a win-win situation for the provincial government. Honestly I think the Scarborough residents will be pleased by this for the most part, at least through the next election.
Why? It's a matter optics. They didn't want LRT, and the hail-mary subway plan didn't seem like it was going to fly. So now, the provincial government flies in and says "We'll build the damn thing ourselves because you guys just can't get your assets together." The LRT plan is still off the table so the option is just to build the subway in your option 2, or somehow there will be extra money brought in for your option 1 above, and the provincial government gets to claim it was they that pushed them to get that money.
Yup. Either way the Province will get some great talking points out of this come the next election. They tried to get a subway to Scarborough, but council flip-flopped,
again.