[W. K. Lis]

Are you kidding me? Chow's latest approval rating is 64%.

See link.

Tory, the former Progressive Conservative leader and radio host, has the highest approval rating in the poll, at 68%, followed closely by Chow, at 64%. Fellow candidates David Soknacki and Councillor Karen Stintz have approval ratings of 54% and 48%, respectively.

In a five-way race, the poll’s respondents give a clear edge to Chow, who leads with 38%. Tory trails at 28% and Ford has fallen back to 20%. Soknacki and Stintz are far behind at 5% and 4%, respectively.

 

[Rainforest]

I honestly think this is the most sensible option in both the short and long term. Once the UPX is electrified, the vehicles that were used for the UPX could then be shifted to service on the Stouffville Line to Agincourt while the SRT is shut down.

The line could then be converted to electric and the SRT guideway to STC retrofitted to allow the running of the same electrified EMUs. Finally, the electrified UPX would be extended with the same vehicles to Scarborough (now renamed the Scarborough-Pearson REX).

In the very long term, the Bloor-Danforth alignment would be converted to operate the REX vehicles for a direct transfer to the B-D at Victoria Park Ave and to eliminate the duplication of service caused by running the parallel REX line to the subway.

In the end, replacing the SRT with a REX line is a far better deal than a subway for Scarborough, as it would cost far less, can be delivered quicker, and would be quicker with only be 10 stops into Downtown Toronto compared to 22 with a transfer at Bloor-Yonge.

Interesting in principle, but I think it can work only if a new downtown tunnel for REX trains is built. Existing Union station won't handle it.

 

[Rainforest]

What I think is the most likely scenario a couple months from now:
-EA for subway options is completed - finds SRT option technically impossible because of the curve radii. Meanwhile, it up-estimates the cost for the city's preferred alignment by a couple hundred million
-New city council is elected, with Chow as mayor. Faced with a shortfall that the city would have to cover, plus sunk costs, plus an electoral mandate to go back to the LRT proposal, the subway is nixed. Transit levy goes to gravy.

This scenario is possible. But then the province will build the subway extension anyway, and shorten it to STC.

Btw, a subway that ends at STC does not have to follow "Murray" alignment, aka SRT alignment, with its problematic curves. It can go up McCowan. Or, it can be a hybrid route: 3.5 km above ground in the SRT corridor, then going in a tunnel and cutting diagonally to STC.

 

[andrewpmk]

This scenario is possible. But then the province will build the subway extension anyway, and shorten it to STC.

Btw, a subway that ends at STC does not have to follow "Murray" alignment, aka SRT alignment, with its problematic curves. It can go up McCowan. Or, it can be a hybrid route: 3.5 km above ground in the SRT corridor, then going in a tunnel and cutting diagonally to STC.

I wonder if the federal by election in Scarborough-Agincourt will have any effect on this?

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Council made a clear motion to amend the MA to remove the LRT and replace it with a subway as well as to fund it. The MA is currently being negotiated to deal with issues such as sunk costs.

So what are the chances that a report comes back to council and the gravity of the extra costs hit them, and they flip-flop yet again and affirm support for the original MA? They'e pretty good IMO.

 

[aquateam]

That's untrue. Council made a clear motion to amend the MA to remove the LRT and replace it with a subway as well as to fund it. The MA is currently being negotiated to deal with issues such as sunk costs.
It was also much more than just Mitze Hunter touting the subway. During the by-elections he had the full backing of the Liberal Party and the subway was a well known part of the party platform in last week's election.

They made a clear motion to direct staff to negotiate a change to the MA, but the MA itself will still have to be voted on by council. The province also made it pretty clear that the city would have to deal with the sunk costs.

According to comments made by Bob Prichard (Chair of Metrolinx) it sounds as though this all depends on what the next council does:

"I won’t rehearse the full Scarborough debate here. Suffice it to say, we will likely only know Toronto’s lasting intentions after the new City Council is elected this fall. Absent Toronto as a fully committed partner, we cannot proceed with any project even though the Scarborough RT is in urgent need of replacement."

And according to Toronto Life:
Interviewer: Olivia Chow wants to revert the *Scarborough subway back to LRT. If she becomes mayor, are we going to change course yet again?
Bruce McQuaig: It’s possible. As a public agency, we have to be responsive to the government’s choices.

 

[gweed123]

In the end, replacing the SRT with a REX line is a far better deal than a subway for Scarborough, as it would cost far less, can be delivered quicker, and would be quicker with only be 10 stops into Downtown Toronto compared to 22 with a transfer at Bloor-Yonge.

Bang on!

Interesting in principle, but I think it can work only if a new downtown tunnel for REX trains is built. Existing Union station won't handle it.

Agreed. But that's assuming that all GO lines are electrified and running into Union though. Realistically the Richmond Hill line shouldn't be electrified until the REX tunnel is built, preferably because the two projects would be linked (REX tunnel = DRL alignment, RH Line uses DRL alignment until north of Lawrence), and the Milton line may be a while away because of dealing with CP. That should leave enough capacity at Union to run a Scarborough GO REX, especially if it's coupled with a Pearson GO REX and uses Union as a thru station instead of a terminus.

But yes, a full GO system electrification plus a Scarborough GO REX would definitely need a Union reliever.

 

[Rainforest]

Realistically the Richmond Hill line shouldn't be electrified until the REX tunnel is built, preferably because the two projects would be linked (REX tunnel = DRL alignment, RH Line uses DRL alignment until north of Lawrence), and the Milton line may be a while away because of dealing with CP. That should leave enough capacity at Union to run a Scarborough GO REX, especially if it's coupled with a Pearson GO REX and uses Union as a thru station instead of a terminus.

But yes, a full GO system electrification plus a Scarborough GO REX would definitely need a Union reliever.

This is certainly an interesting idea. But a few concerns would have to be addressed, in addition to the Union capacity. Other potential issues are:

- Width of the rail corridor in Eastern Toronto. In some places, only 3 tracks fit.

- Width of the southern end of Uxbridge sub, just after it splits off the Lakeshore East corridor. To my knowledge, it is tight in some places, and runs close to houses.

- The curve north of Ellesmere. If it is problematic for subway cars, will it be an even greater problem for mainline-compatible cars?

- The width of east-west SRT corridor (existing above-ground guideway). Sure, the guideway will have to be rebuilt in any case; is the corridor wide enough for a wider guideway suitable for mainline-compatible cars?

- The implication of route split north of Ellesmere (half of trains go to STC and the other half continue to Steels and into Markham). If, say, the combined frequency is 10 min, then STC will only get one train every 20 min.

 

[gweed123]

This is certainly an interesting idea. But a few concerns would have to be addressed, in addition to the Union capacity. Other potential issues are:

- Width of the rail corridor in Eastern Toronto. In some places, only 3 tracks fit.

That could be an issue, yes. The plan that I have has the RH tracks not merging with the main corridor until south of Queen (in a tunnel until then). The DRL-bound tracks on the eastern main rail corridor would presumably enter a tunnel somewhere east of Greenwood Yard. Granted, the interchange between the main corridor and the DRL would be pretty complex.

- Width of the southern end of Uxbridge sub, just after it splits off the Lakeshore East corridor. To my knowledge, it is tight in some places, and runs close to houses.

That could very well be an issue.

- The curve north of Ellesmere. If it is problematic for subway cars, will it be an even greater problem for mainline-compatible cars?

The curve is only necessary because the SRT dips under the rail corridor, no? If it's running along the rail corridor, if anything it would need to rise to elevated grade while still running N-S, and then curve E-W onto the elevated guideway. The tunnel would become obsolete.

- The width of east-west SRT corridor (existing above-ground guideway). Sure, the guideway will have to be rebuilt in any case; is the corridor wide enough for a wider guideway suitable for mainline-compatible cars?

Yup, the guideway would need to be rebuilt, but if GO is using EMUs, I don't think ROW width would be an issue.

- The implication of route split north of Ellesmere (half of trains go to STC and the other half continue to Steels and into Markham). If, say, the combined frequency is 10 min, then STC will only get one train every 20 min.

What I have is actually 3 routes along the Kennedy-Ellesmere stretch of the corridor: Markham GO REX up to Lincolnville, Unionville GO REX (uses DRL through downtown), and Scarborough GO REX. Each would have 15 min frequencies outside of peak, with higher frequencies during peak, especially the Scarborough route.

Very good points though.

 

[dunkalunk]

Agreed. But that's assuming that all GO lines are electrified and running into Union though. Realistically the Richmond Hill line shouldn't be electrified until the REX tunnel is built, preferably because the two projects would be linked (REX tunnel = DRL alignment, RH Line uses DRL alignment until north of Lawrence), and the Milton line may be a while away because of dealing with CP. That should leave enough capacity at Union to run a Scarborough GO REX, especially if it's coupled with a Pearson GO REX and uses Union as a thru station instead of a terminus.

But yes, a full GO system electrification plus a Scarborough GO REX would definitely need a Union reliever.

That's not the Richmond Hill Line, that's the Stouffville line that currently runs adjacent to the SRT.

The capacity issue at Union has much to do with the fact that GO is deadheading trains back to the Willowbrook yards. The UPX is expected to run at 15 minute intervals at all times of day, so the capacity currently exists. In the short term, you can just buy more of those UPX DMUs and then re-deploy them for regional service on other lines once Kitchener and Lakeshore are electrified.

With Positive Train Control (assuming it is introduced in the next 5 years which given current discussion, it will be), you wouldn't require more than three tracks, just the occasional siding at station stops.

However, if a reliever tunnel will still be required. I'm personally a fan of the Lower Union Station concept that has electrified Lakeshore trains diverted into an underground tunnel under the existing rail corridor and have a second station built under Yonge St. It was one of the two options Metrolinx carried forward as part of their Union Station 2031 planning study.

 

[gweed123]

That's not the Richmond Hill Line, that's the Stouffville line that currently runs adjacent to the SRT.

Yup, I realize that. I'm saying that the electrification of the RH line should be paired up with the DRL, because if you look at the map I posted last page, the RH line basically becomes the northeast branch of the DRL.

The capacity issue at Union has much to do with the fact that GO is deadheading trains back to the Willowbrook yards. The UPX is expected to run at 15 minute intervals at all times of day, so the capacity currently exists. In the short term, you can just buy more of those UPX DMUs and then re-deploy them for regional service on other lines once Kitchener and Lakeshore are electrified.

I don't know if I'd use UPX style trains for the rest of the GO system. Ideally, I'd want something similar to what the Berlin S-Bahn uses, which is basically a more seat-oriented subway car (more seats and less standing room, more comfortable seats than subway seats). Easier to board and de-board than the current GO stock, but the same degree of comfort.

With Positive Train Control (assuming it is introduced in the next 5 years which given current discussion, it will be), you wouldn't require more than three tracks, just the occasional siding at station stops.

However, if a reliever tunnel will still be required. I'm personally a fan of the Lower Union Station concept that has electrified Lakeshore trains diverted into an underground tunnel under the existing rail corridor and have a second station built under Yonge St. It was one of the two options Metrolinx carried forward as part of their Union Station 2031 planning study.

I really don't see the benefit in spending billions of dollars on a tunnel that doesn't expand the coverage area at all. If you put the GO REX DRL under Wellington, at least you're serving a new area, while still maintaining a connection to Union. I liken it to the proposal that comes up on here every now and again to 4-track the Yonge line. Why spend billions for a capacity boost and a moderate time savings that covers no new areas when you can spend that same amount of money on a parallel line that provides the same net capacity boost AND serves a new area?

 

[Palma]

That's untrue. Council made a clear motion to amend the MA to remove the LRT and replace it with a subway as well as to fund it. The MA is currently being negotiated to deal with issues such as sunk costs.
It was also much more than just Mitze Hunter touting the subway. During the by-elections he had the full backing of the Liberal Party and the subway was a well known part of the party platform in last week's election.

Really! I never heard one mention of the scarborough subway

 

[dowlingm]

Mitzie Hunter has already flipped once from LRT to subway (as John Tory did). Nothing to say the reverse couldn't happen if she found it to her advantage.

 

[kEiThZ]

None of you think like regular voters and the politicians they elect.

The 416 and 905 saved the Liberals. Scarborough has been painted red and the Liberals are grateful.

And they'll reward those voters with 4-years of shuttle bus hell only to face voter wrath in 2018? Only if they're suicidal.

They'll negotiate some kind of face saving measure for Chow if she gets elected to let her climb off her high horse.

In the meanwhile, Chow better hope that more voters in Scarborough don't find out more about her desire to kill a subway they are so close to getting.

Full disclosure: I'm a John Tory fan.

 

[Rainforest]

None of you think like regular voters and the politicians they elect.

The 416 and 905 saved the Liberals. Scarborough has been painted red and the Liberals are grateful.

And they'll reward those voters with 4-years of shuttle bus hell only to face voter wrath in 2018? Only if they're suicidal.

They'll negotiate some kind of face saving measure for Chow if she gets elected to let her climb off her high horse.

Yeah. Really, Chow will not even need much effort to save her face. She can cancel the city's portion of funding (shortening the subway to STC), and claim a victory by saving the property tax dollars. Having done that, she will have no compelling reason to insist on LRT versus subway.

The only problem is that Sheppard LRT will have to be somehow re-routed to connect to STC.

Full disclosure: I'm a John Tory fan.

My personal preference is Karen Stintz. Tory is a tad below, but I will be happy with him too.

Chow would be OK if not for her desire to reopen the SLRT issue (although, in any case she is much better than Ford).