[quicksilver]

This pro-LRT or pro-subway business has to stop, one technology isn't better than the other, they are just simply that, different forms of transportation technologies. We decide on the technology that best suits the route and transit corridor at the best price. The reason why the SRT route is being so hotly debated and flipping back and forth is because both the LRT plan and the B-D expansion suit the SRT route well and have their share of pros.

I think there are a couple more reasons for this continued debate:

1. Politicians trying to make a name for themselves, whether they are the "LRTs are good enough for Scarborough" crowd like Josh Matlow or the "Subways Subways Subways" chant of the Edenbridge mafia. The bribery set sniff a wedge issue and won't let go, ever.

2. It's easy news for the local news outlets. No homework necessary. Just feature every new idea about what Scarborough deserves or doesn't for transit and you are certain to sell some stories, or ad click-throughs, or build some backlinks.

The debate should nonetheless end in October. Either Chow will win and we will get the SELRT and an LRT replacement for the SRT (but hey lets demand through service at Kennedy), or Tory will win and we will get a Bloor Danforth subway extension to Sheppard and McCowan but maybe no SELRT. The Liberals, for better or worse, are in power until 2018, a year past even the delayed SELRT's start date. Hudak can't ruin the party any more.

All that said, I think it would not be wise to leave the federal conservative's money on the table either for the SELRT or the BD extension. They care little about transit, and could use this excuse to avoid contributing to Toronto in the future.

 

[nfitz]

The debate should nonetheless end in October. Either Chow will win and we will get the SELRT and an LRT replacement for the SRT (but hey lets demand through service at Kennedy), or Tory will win and we will get a Bloor Danforth subway extension to Sheppard and McCowan but maybe no SELRT.

Most likely ... though council would still have to support Chow's change to the City's plan. You need 22 other votes other than Chow. Tory's position is easier, as he wouldn't have to take it to council, other than a final ratification of the revised deal with Metrolinx, which seems an unlikely time to change the plan again.

But what if we get Ford more years? Then all bets are off as council runs around like a headless chicken ...

 

[quicksilver]

But what if we get Ford more years? Then all bets are off as council runs around like a headless chicken ...

If Ford wins maybe we can at least count on free crack for everybody.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I think there are a couple more reasons for this continued debate:

1. Politicians trying to make a name for themselves, whether they are the "LRTs are good enough for Scarborough" crowd like Josh Matlow or the "Subways Subways Subways" chant of the Edenbridge mafia. The bribery set sniff a wedge issue and won't let go, ever.

2. It's easy news for the local news outlets. No homework necessary. Just feature every new idea about what Scarborough deserves or doesn't for transit and you are certain to sell some stories, or ad click-throughs, or build some backlinks.

The debate should nonetheless end in October. Either Chow will win and we will get the SELRT and an LRT replacement for the SRT (but hey lets demand through service at Kennedy), or Tory will win and we will get a Bloor Danforth subway extension to Sheppard and McCowan but maybe no SELRT. The Liberals, for better or worse, are in power until 2018, a year past even the delayed SELRT's start date. Hudak can't ruin the party any more.

All that said, I think it would not be wise to leave the federal conservative's money on the table either for the SELRT or the BD extension. They care little about transit, and could use this excuse to avoid contributing to Toronto in the future.

Most likely ... though council would still have to support Chow's change to the City's plan. You need 22 other votes other than Chow. Tory's position is easier, as he wouldn't have to take it to council, other than a final ratification of the revised deal with Metrolinx, which seems an unlikely time to change the plan again.

But what if we get Ford more years? Then all bets are off as council runs around like a headless chicken ...

If Ford wins maybe we can at least count on free crack for everybody.

First off, I love the "Edenbridge Mafia" (and that will be the next battleground after Scarborough imo) Secondly, I agree with you quicksilver 100 percent. Only thing I would add is that LRT has an image problem which adds to the problem. Olivia will need to go to council but she will have a mandate from the city. If Ford gets in, both subways will be built. Eglinton East will also be buried and so will Eglinton West.(again, the next battle ground)

 

[WislaHD]

If Ford gets in, B-D extension will continue as planned and nothing else will be built.

It will be a repeat of the B-D extension, Ford will propose the Sheppard subway to council and then vote against the needed tax hike to finance it. This time around however, the Federal government isn't going to chip in like with B-D.

 

[aquateam]

Most likely ... though council would still have to support Chow's change to the City's plan. You need 22 other votes other than Chow.

The last vote was 24-20. Given a fresh mandate for LRT with a Chow victory, and that the three biggest pushers for it will no longer be on Council (RoFo, DoFo, and Stinz), and given that Chow has a lot more political capital and strategic sense than Rob Ford did in 2013, the LRT option would be inevitable in a Chow victory. Expecting council to revolt is wishful thinking.

Tory's position is easier, as he wouldn't have to take it to council, other than a final ratification of the revised deal with Metrolinx, which seems an unlikely time to change the plan again.

So in other words, either way it needs to get approved by council.

To me, it would seem easier for them to go the Chow route and vote to re-affirm the existing master agreement for LRT rather than to modify it for a subway. The master agreement between the city and the province is still for LRT, remember.

 

[andrewpmk]

Why do you tell untruths? I can only assume you are deliberately living, because we have discussed this in detail before. The LRT is closer in travel time to the subway than the existing bus!

The scheduled time for the existing bus is 29 minutes from Don Mills Station to McCowan at 5 pm (rush hour). That's 14.5 km/hr. The LRT would move 55% faster at about 22.5 km/hr, and take only 19 minutes. That's a 10 minute savings.

And the existing bus travel time assumes that traffic congestion on Sheppard East will not worsen in the next 20 years. Reality is that it's been forecast to significantly worsen - which was the entire impetus for the Sheppard East line in the first place.

If the subway was 32 km/hr it would take 13 minutes. Only a 6 minutes over the LRT.

Because it will significantly improve travel times, at much less cost than a subway. I can see some argument to moving the subway/LRT transition to Victoria Park. But the travel demands east of Victoria Park are dreadful. There is no way that subway is justified.

This definitely is not true for users of bus route 190.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If Ford gets in, B-D extension will continue as planned and nothing else will be built.

It will be a repeat of the B-D extension, Ford will propose the Sheppard subway to council and then vote against the needed tax hike to finance it. This time around however, the Federal government isn't going to chip in like with B-D.

He supported the BD tax, he'll support the other tax.

The last vote was 24-20. Given a fresh mandate for LRT with a Chow victory, and that the three biggest pushers for it will no longer be on Council (RoFo, DoFo, and Stinz), and given that Chow has a lot more political capital and strategic sense than Rob Ford did in 2013, the LRT option would be inevitable in a Chow victory. Expecting council to revolt is wishful thinking.



So in other words, either way it needs to get approved by council.

To me, it would seem easier for them to go the Chow route and vote to re-affirm the existing master agreement for LRT rather than to modify it for a subway. The master agreement between the city and the province is still for LRT, remember.

Agreed.

 

[andrewpmk]

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...has_the_lead_in_new_toronto_mayoral_poll.html

John Tory 39.1%, Olivia Chow 32.7%, Rob Ford 21.7%. Totally contradicts the previous polls. This seems far more plausible, given that Olivia Chow is too left to win the election and Ford is crazy.

I'm pretty sure that the non-Eglinton LRT lines are dead if Tory wins.

 

[nfitz]

The last vote was 24-20. Given a fresh mandate for LRT with a Chow victory, and that the three biggest pushers for it will no longer be on Council (RoFo, DoFo, and Stinz), and given that Chow has a lot more political capital and strategic sense than Rob Ford did in 2013, the LRT option would be inevitable in a Chow victory. Expecting council to revolt is wishful thinking.

Agreed, which is why I said that it was most likely it would be LRT. A wise leader (like Miller) wouldn't take it to council if they didn't think it would go through

To me, it would seem easier for them to go the Chow route and vote to re-affirm the existing master agreement for LRT rather than to modify it for a subway. The master agreement between the city and the province is still for LRT, remember.

Precisely, however the TTC and City Manager already have authorization to revise the master agreement without any further action necessary on the part of council.

Either way, whoever wins, it will go to council, and the status-quo and obvious result is whichever plan that Ford or Chow put forward will go ahead. There are benefits and negatives to both plans. Frankly, I don't particularly care which one goes ahead. But we have to do something. Even if we simply go ahead and do a life-extension on the existing vehicles, extend the platforms and pay Translink (through the nose) to buy their compatible vehicles to increase frequency and run longer trains, we'd be ahead.

 

[CapitalSeven]

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...has_the_lead_in_new_toronto_mayoral_poll.html

John Tory 39.1%, Olivia Chow 32.7%, Rob Ford 21.7%. Totally contradicts the previous polls. This seems far more plausible, given that Olivia Chow is too left to win the election and Ford is crazy.

So, all the other polls were wrong, but this outlying poll is correct. And the reason is "Olivia Chow is too left to win." How is this a "given," and how does this establish plausibility?

Didn't Kathleen Wynne just win a majority with a very left-leaning budget? I'm not saying the poll is wrong - perhaps things are shifting in the election. But John Tory has a long history of blowing elections, and Olivia Chow has an even longer history of winning them. I'd hold off a little on predicting the results. The only thing demonstrated at this point is what you think of the candidates.

 

[rbt]

So, all the other polls were wrong, but this outlying poll is correct. And the reason is "Olivia Chow is too left to win." How is this a "given," and how does this establish plausibility?

Didn't Kathleen Wynne just win a majority with a very left-leaning budget? I'm not saying the poll is wrong - perhaps things are shifting in the election. But John Tory has a long history of blowing elections, and Olivia Chow has an even longer history of winning them. I'd hold off a little on predicting the results. The only thing demonstrated at this point is what you think of the candidates.

This isn't actually much of a change.

Ford is losing support and the closest well known competitor (Tory) is picking up that support. It's been known for a while that Chow needs Ford to look like a viable candidate to split the vote.

The Chow number (32%) is within the margin of error of her other numbers (typically around 35%). They should really be publishing a range rather than a specific percentage. If Ford falls as flat as Stintz and Soknaki, it's Tory's to lose.


Also interesting, Tory would be the first Toronto mayor in many decades who did not hold a councillors seat previously.

 

[nfitz]

Also interesting, Tory would be the first Toronto mayor in many decades who did not hold a councillors seat previously.

Assuming he doesn't find a way to once again put his foot in his mouth and gift the election like always does once the election gets going.

 

[rbt]

Assuming he doesn't find a way to once again put his foot in his mouth and gift the election like always does once the election gets going.

If http://esm.ubc.ca/ (or it's replacement) was running a market for the Toronto election, I probably would not be putting money on Tory.

Haven't lost money on their platform yet.

 

[WislaHD]

Assuming he doesn't find a way to once again put his foot in his mouth and gift the election like always does once the election gets going.

If I were to join rbt in betting, I'd bet on the above and for Chow to slowly lose the euphoria from her announcement in the coming months, paving way for a candidate that is not Ford and appeals to conservatives, centrists and progressives alike, like I dunno, Soknacki.