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denfromoakvillemilton said:
If it's run through with Eglinton, it's not a transfer. Let's be 100 percent here: there is a Ford LRT plan and Transit City LRT plan. Ford had it right in this case.
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He sure did and I prefer a subway connection personally. But a smart compromise was required and they did. Now everyone on both sides wishes they had a mulligan
 
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TheTigerMaster said:
Fun fact: The SRT today moves 39,000 per day. The Scarborough Subway is projected to move 31,000. That's a 21% drop in ridership compared to the SRT

All this expenditure, to lose eight thousand riders.

Anyone care to explain how this subway extension will be so wonderful for the 20% of SRT riders who will be displaced from rapid transit?
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That's surprising indeed. Do you have the source? In such puzzling cases, I usually try to look at the source with detailed numbers, confirm that they are correct in the first place, and then try to understand the cause(s).

I can think of the following reasons:

1) Some riders might shift to SmartTrack / RER. Those riders would be lost to SRT as well.

2) Loss of the Lawrence East station; that could account for a few thousand daily riders.

Loss of the Ellesmere, Midland, and McCowan stations is hardly relevant for the total riders count, as all those buses will feed into STC.

Loss of riders travelling between stations other than Kennedy should not matter much, as the number of such riders is very small.

On the other hand:

a) The projected peak ridership for SSE, even the latest and lowest projection of 7,300 pphpd, is higher than that for SRT (5,000 or 5,500). The total daily ridership and the peak ridership aren't always proportional, but usually they correlate for routes of similar length.

b) We know that SRT is unable to carry all rush-hour riders that want to use it, and therefore TTC has to run a parallel express bus, 131E. When the subway opens, obviously those riders will switch to subway.

c) Substantial residential growth and some employment growth is expected at STC by the time the subway opens; that should add a few thousand riders.

d) Natural growth occurs everywhere in the city, and some of it will occur in Scarborough in places other than STC. That should add some riders to the bus routes that feed into STC, and a large portion of those riders will transfer to the subway.

So, if you are saying that factors (1) and (2) overweight factors (a) to (d), I can't assume that it is "wrong" without having access to the source, but I can say that I am puzzled.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
So at what point will we get more accurate pricing estimations for this project. Current estimations could be off by anywhere between -20% and +50%? Will we know before construction begins?
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Shouldn't the estimate be increased by 15%, and then be accurate to +/- 35%. That means the estimate is now at $3.85B.
 
Daily ridership and PPHD are different things.

I'd imagine the loss of Lawrence Station and Markham-origin riders would be the primary reason for the drop in daily ridership. The SSE will essentially be a rush-hour express shuttle, and be dead during the day.

Really makes me think the TTC will definitely be short-turning vehicles outside of peak hours.
 
EastYorkTTCFan said:
exactly I think the problem is city council think the TTC is the personal model railroad and they can do anything they want with it. It should be the opposite the TTC tell the city what they need to do. It's not like city council says the the fire department or the toronto police you need new police cars and fire trucks so we're going to order them for you.
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thats a great point which should be pointed out to Tory and company
 
nfitz said:
You know, I don't think in the 730 pages so far since 2005, that anyone has thought of that yet.
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Well I'm sure the reasoning behind not doing so was because of community backlash (NIMBYS) but f*** that we screwed the pooch by not getting this done years back when it was cheaper so now we gotta compromise somehow.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Fun fact: The SRT today moves 39,000 per day. The Scarborough Subway is projected to move 31,000. That's a 21% drop in ridership compared to the SRT

All this expenditure, to lose eight thousand riders.

Anyone care to explain how this subway extension will be so wonderful for the 20% of SRT riders who will be displaced from rapid transit?
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Well then, the whole discussion of cost per new rider takes on a whole different tone if the number of net new riders has a negative sign in front of it....no?
 
nfitz said:
I don't think it does. I'm also confused by these claims that there is rider loss.
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For those riders who want to get downtown (that's downtown Toronto, bypassing downtown Scarborough), they could board SmartTrack at Lawrence or Ellesmere (current neighbourhoods served by the SRT). That's where the "rider loss" may happen. Depends upon the fare integration, if possible.

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If fare integration with GO is implemented properly, I'll expect the a shift to GO at Eglinton, Guildwood, and Roughe Hill, as well.
 
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