[rbt]

My guess is that he'll partially follow-through. I'd be surprised if we don't get a station at Lawrence, but also fairly surprised if going up to Sheppard isn't treated as an extension, which will get an EA, and plans to build later but no follow-through.

Adding a station at Lawrence restarts a large chunk of the process as it changes the location of the tunnel.

 

[W. K. Lis]

My guess is that he'll partially follow-through. I'd be surprised if we don't get a station at Lawrence, but also fairly surprised if going up to Sheppard isn't treated as an extension, which will get an EA, and plans to build later but no follow-through.

Must not forget the Lawrence-Kennedy SmartTrack Station. See link.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Have to wait for the 2019 budget

Ehh, don't know if I buy this explanation.

Analogy time: if you were building a house, and mid-way through the design phase you decided with certainty to add two stories onto the house, you wouldn't wait 6+ months to tell the engineers and architects. That just wastes time and money and makes changing plans that much more difficult.

It's not impossible that they're waiting for the budget, but it would be illogical and reckless of them. I can't fathom what benefit that would bring (assuming their genuine intention is to see the three-stop extension built)

I think Ford will follow through on this one. It seems like a great way to kick the bulk of funding out of his 2nd term and into the next Premiers budgets.

If you're a cynic, yea this is a great explanation. The chances of a three-stop configuration being construction-ready in the three remaining years of the PCs term is zero.

Also notworthy that we haven't had any concrete talk of new transit expansion from this government. Well, there was that remark about expanding the subway to Pickering, but we all know that's not happening.

 

[rbt]

... in the three remaining years of the PCs term is zero.

Internally PCs are expecting a second term majority; it's theirs to lose. So, they're planning over 8 years rather than 4.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

Internally PCs are expecting a second term majority; it's theirs to lose. So, they're planning over 8 years rather than 4.

All else being equal a second term is a fairly safe assumption.

 

[asher__jo]

All else being equal a second term is a fairly safe assumption.

I don't think anything is safe too assume in Politics these days. Don't underestimate Doug Ford's ability to destroy his re-election chances, and the scrambling to raise official party status in case people cross the aisle might be a foreshadowing.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

All else being equal a second term is a fairly safe assumption.

In Canada it's extraordinarily rare for a first-term majority government not to get reelected. That said, the Progressive Conservatives post-victory polling numbers are the lowest I've ever seen among the two levels of government in Canada. If these polling numbers hold, I'd expect the Liberals to come back with a majority government in 2022.

 

[CapitalSeven]

Internally, I'd say lots of the party, much of the caucus, and most of the cabinet are looking for a way to lose Thug by 2021. But SubwaysX3 is one topic they seem to be starting to see straight. How they are going to deliver a longer, stoppyer Scarborough extension after cutting many other things on the altar of economy defies logic, which might start mattering in a year or two, if and when Trump finally implodes.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Anything can happen.

 

[micheal_can]

In Canada it's extraordinarily rare for a first-term majority government not to get reelected. That said, the Progressive Conservatives post-victory polling numbers are the lowest I've ever seen among the two levels of government in Canada. If these polling numbers hold, I'd expect the Liberals to come back with a majority government in 2022.

Unless this shines a light on the NDP. Right now it's Liberal Who?

 

[asher__jo]

Unless this shines a light on the NDP. Right now it's Liberal Who?

Definitely. The NDP were polling quite well, but sadly the 905 were intent on voting PC. Guess we'll see if they liked their choice next term, maybe chip a few seats of that PC majority.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Internally, I'd say lots of the party, much of the caucus, and most of the cabinet are looking for a way to lose Thug by 2021. But SubwaysX3 is one topic they seem to be starting to see straight. How they are going to deliver a longer, stoppyer Scarborough extension after cutting many other things on the altar of economy defies logic, which might start mattering in a year or two, if and when Trump finally implodes.

Pretty much. I figure that two or three years from now, once it becomes clear that the PC government is a lame duck, Doug will conveniently find himself embroiled in a scandal, either forcing his resignation, or forcing caucus to select a new Premier. Reports are that Doug is very concerned about loyalty within his Caucus (and rightfully so).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Unless this shines a light on the NDP. Right now it's Liberal Who?

I don't really anticipate that the NDP will be able to capitalize on their official opposition status, to form government in 2022. It didn't work out for them when they were official opposition in Ottawa. Plus, the Liberals are already polling higher than the NDP, and almost as high as the PCs. The Liberal brand is so strong that they really don't need official party status to run an effective campaign in 2022.

 

[OneCity]

Politics thread?

Liberals need to regroup big time and their image that may be worse today then before the election. If anything those that voted PC out of Liberal disgust feel justified to date so no reason for a drop off. Things could change sure but I don't see the PC's losing more than a couple seats at best as it stands today. They're in a good position where they can simply blame everything on the previous admin.

Right or wrong they have delivering on promises. Moving the subways forward wont be any different.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Politics thread?

Liberals need to regroup big time and their image that may be worse today then before the election. If anything those that voted PC out of Liberal disgust feel justified to date so no reason for a drop off. Things could change sure but I don't see the PC's losing more than a couple seats at best as it stands today. They're in a good position where they can simply blame everything on the previous admin.

Right or wrong they have delivering on promises. Moving the subways forward wont be any different.

Doug is under water. He needs to stop with the scandals and get moving or this will be 4 short years
http://dailyhive.com/toronto/doug-ford-disapproval-campaign-research-poll-2018

Doug Ford’s recent labour reforms may have affected the way Ontarians view the Premier and his party. may have affected the way Ontarians view the Premier and his party.
According to the latest Campaign Research poll, Ford’s approval rating with respect to his job performance took a hit with results coming in at 37% approval, and 63% disapproval of his performance. Specifically, 41% of men and 34% of women approved of his performance.
The poll, which was conducted among 1836 Ontario residents, showed that if an election were held tomorrow, 34% would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario. They hold a two-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party, who sit at 32%. The Ontario New Democratic Party (ONDP) would receive 25% of the vote coming in third place.



The Liberals and the NDP place first and second with the millennial vote while the PCs maintain a lead with those aged 45, states the poll results.
And most of those polled preferred the Liberals’ labour legislation, rather than Ford’s recent announcements with the majority of Ontarians (52%) opposing the freezing of the minimum wage at $14 until 2020 compared to 42% who support it.
“Saying you want to make Ontario ‘open for business’ doesn’t appear to be enough justification for rolling back popular labour reforms,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research, adding that “As Kathleen Wynne starts to fade from memory among the Ontario electorate, the Liberals seem to be regaining consideration from Ontarians.”
Ford has been premier for five months.