This is only the regional government; the municipalities (think Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa etc.) also collect their share...so all in all, more than 10% increase on the bill
The local numbers are tentatively factored in to the above as I understand it, at 2.5%
As I understand it, that is not how taxes work. I thought they calculate a budget, and divvy up according to assessed value. That is, if everyone's property value increased by a million, it doesn't change a thing in terms of dollars collected.
Your understanding is essentially correct; however, there is such a thing as 'assessment growth'.
So there is total assessment and relative assessment.
When property A rises in value faster than property B, A 's taxes rise and B's decline. Presuming total assessment is essentially static.
If the value properties A and B rise at the same rate then everyone's taxes stay the same, (absent a voted increase); again, if total assessment is static.
But when total assessment increases, the same rate will generate more revenue.
You can see this in the presentation I linked. Without assessment growth, the proposed increase would be closer to 12%
Assessment growth occurs when a property shifts to a more intense or dense state of being and/or shifts to a higher tax classification.
Example, a farmer's field will pay a lower rate of assessment per acre than will a subdivision that replaces it; and in turn a midrise condo will pay more than a subdivision (per ft2).
The key there is whether the assessment grows faster than the cost of servicing said land.
The farmer's field at the edge of the urban area may not be serviced, and won't have any public roads in its interior, when it becomes a subdivision, there's sewer, water, garbage pick-up, a new park, probably a new school, another fire hall perhaps etc etc.
So its a question as to whether that 'nominal' growth will favourably affect the budget.
But a new midrise on Kingston Road, already served by a fire hall, sewer, water, garbage pickup etc. will have a much lower cost increment of new/enhanced service and will likely result in lower effective taxes for others.