[Glenco]

On another thread it was pointed out that Alberta reached 5,000,000 people a 25% increase from 2013 when we reached 4,000,000. The City of Edmonton has undoubtedly grown even more and yet the passenger totals for 2014 were 8.2 million and if we are lucky we will reach that milestone again this year. Basically flat lined for the past 12 years. Other major Canadian airports have not with one or two exceptions they have shown significant growth. This is so disheartening for someone who dedicates his time and energy into supporting this airport. Is there a pent up demand for air travel in Edmonton that will explode in the coming years or are we destined to being overlooked or of secondary consideration by airlines for the foreseeable future?

 

[The_Cat]

Even if air traffic hasn’t significantly increased, other development has taken place. The Premium Outlet Collection, Costco, transit service, just to name a few.

 

[Edmcowboy11]

Even if air traffic hasn’t significantly increased, other development has taken place. The Premium Outlet Collection, Costco, transit service, just to name a few.

And when the road and overpass to Leduc opens I'm pretty certain there is a whole stretch of land that will be quickly developed just after the bridge leading to the mall. When I was in the area the other day, it was very clear how the land would be prime for retail or hotel, etc as it is right along the road that will be the major access in and out of the airport directly from Leduc.

 

[Gronk!]

Even if air traffic hasn’t significantly increased, other development has taken place. The Premium Outlet Collection, Costco, transit service, just to name a few.

The other development just small peanuts when there are top priorities such as non-stop departures. Aside from USA travel, which has been drastically reduced because of the Orange Asshole regime, where are all the non-stop departures to other parts of the globe such as London, Amsterdam, Mexico City and Tokyo? Sometimes I feel as though YEG is only nominally an international airport.

 

[blue12]

The other development just small peanuts when there are top priorities such as non-stop departures. Aside from USA travel, which has been drastically reduced because of the Orange Asshole regime, where are all the non-stop departures to other parts of the globe such as London, Amsterdam, Mexico City and Tokyo? Sometimes I feel as though YEG is only nominally an international airport.

We've already got Amsterdam.
London likely won't happen because nobody wants to fly it.
Tokyo and Mexico City would likely be unprofitable and/or cannibalize other nonstop flights from other Canadian cities, which means nobody wants to fly them.

The state of YEG is sad and unfortunate but very, very unsurprising.

 

[BrettB]

The development of all that other land does help in the long run. It makes the airport less reliant on airside revenue, meaning it can lower the landing and other fees it charges the airlines and that, in the long run, could help boost passenger numbers.

 

[Glenco]

We've already got Amsterdam.
London likely won't happen because nobody wants to fly it.
Tokyo and Mexico City would likely be unprofitable and/or cannibalize other nonstop flights from other Canadian cities, which means nobody wants to fly them.

The state of YEG is sad and unfortunate but very, very unsurprising.

I find it very hard to believe there hasn’t been a significant increase in people wanting to fly over the last 12 years. So where are they going? Are they all driving down the highway?

 

[FrankRizza]

I find it very hard to believe there hasn’t been a significant increase in people wanting to fly over the last 12 years. So where are they going? Are they all driving down the highway?

I think that is exactly what is happening. If Edmonton has 8Mil passengers and Calgary has 17-18Mil. How many of Calgary’s passengers originate from Edmonton. I’d be willing to bet about 2-3Mil. I will never fly out of YYC because I feel Like I’m giving the finger to YEG but I know lots of people who do. My BIL and his family of 6 had booked a July flight to ATL. Now that it’s cancelled they are flying out of YYC, and worse yet, they are driving down to Calgary. So YYC will have 12 passenger numbers from this particular family in July and 0 for YEG. I honestly believe if nobody went to Calgary for flights, we would have 2-3 million more passengers and more flights because of it.

This city and our airport seem to take 2 steps forward and then 1.96 steps back, every fricken time. It’s like a punch in the gut every week.

 

[Tropical]

As pointed out, our province only has a population of 5 million people. I am not offended by the consolidation of Edmonton connections through Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary to make the economics favorable to airlines.

Living in a rather small and isolated city, I am consistently impressed by the lowering costs of domestic flights here, and have never had difficulty getting the routes I need internationally. Security is almost never backlogged, I rarely experience flight delays and there are more than enough services available at departures to keep me satisfied. I particularly notice this in comparison to other minor airports.

 

[Glenco]

As pointed out, our province only has a population of 5 million people. I am not offended by the consolidation of Edmonton connections through Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary to make the economics favorable to airlines.

Living in a rather small and isolated city, I am consistently impressed by the lowering costs of domestic flights here, and have never had difficulty getting the routes I need internationally. Security is almost never backlogged, I rarely experience flight delays and there are more than enough services available at departures to keep me satisfied. I particularly notice this in comparison to other minor airports.

In the meantime Winnipeg a rather small and isolated community about half the size of Edmonton with a much slower population growth rate has seen about a 17% growth in passenger traffic over the same timeframe. How do you rationalize that?

 

[ChazYEG]

In the meantime Winnipeg a rather small and isolated community about half the size of Edmonton with a much slower population growth rate has seen about a 17% growth in passenger traffic over the same timeframe. How do you rationalize that?

Winnipeg doesn't have any other major centre in Canada that is drawing flights away from them. Closest ones are Calgary and Edmonton, 1300km away each, or Toronto 2000km away.

Edmonton has a perfect storm of having Calgary just 2 1/2 hrs south while still being relatively isolated from other population centres, which ends up sucking a lot of flights away. From an airline perspective, doesn't make sense to support some flights on both cities and, considering that Calgary is (and sadly will always be) more of a touristic destination than Edmonton, YEG needs to work 3x harder to attract flights than YYC.

I still believe YEG could support at least one Asian flight, considering the large filipino and south asian communities in the city. and maybe another EU flight. US destinations were on the up until the Mango Mussolini started with the bs, and I could see YEG having more of those once (if) he gets out.

 

[blue12]

I find it very hard to believe there hasn’t been a significant increase in people wanting to fly over the last 12 years. So where are they going? Are they all driving down the highway?

Driving, or flying, yes. YEG loses a lot of passengers and therefore airlines and direct routes to YYC.

Think of it from the perspective of an airline looking to fly to Alberta.
We’ve only got 5 million people, so for many this isn’t enough to sustain 2 brand new routes. So it makes a lot more sense to serve the (slightly) larger city that also has significantly more tourism traffic and therefore higher demand than the slightly smaller city with way less tourism traffic - especially when the two are less than 3 hours apart.

It was inevitable that over time one of YYC or YEG would come out on top, and given Calgary’s larger presence in global business and the much higher tourism traffic, it came out as the “winner”.

A similar situation to maybe help put it into perspective, although much more extreme, could be San Francisco and Sacramento. More tourism, more business, and a higher population drives traffic to SFO and not SMF, even though Sacramento is still a very decently sized city with a decent amount of direct traffic. Why fly to SMF and SFO on reduced capacity each when you can fly one large route to SFO?

 

[The_Cat]

I think there are more first-class tickets purchased on Calgary flights, making them more profitable.

 

[blue12]

That too. Long haul/widebody flights need a decent load of business/first class travel in order to make a decent profit.

Thats why routes like YEG-MNL wouldn’t work. There’s enough direct demand, but those business class seats would sit empty and the airline might not make any money from flying the route.

By funnelling passengers into one hub (YYC, YVR, YYZ, etc) it also helps fill those business class seats making for an all-around more favourable destination for airlines.

 

[BASE]

YEG would need a domestic airline to have a YEG hub strategy. Westjet has a reliever hub of sorts in YEG but would need Air Canada to make it a bit of a west/east connection hub to make the numbers really pop and give some viability to European/Asian flights.

YEG may be able to theoretically support one in each direction but that would require all passengers heading in that direction to be choosing those flights rather than what might happen in the real world due to airline allegiance or price where they would connect elsewhere.

At some point if population growth continues to be strong the regional size may force the issue from a foreign or even domestic airline perspective but probably need to get to 2+ Mil people before starting to entertain that thought.