[David A]

Cheap is rarely, if ever, a positive attribute.

I disagree, it can fuel growth. I believe the overly expensive cities will eventually stagnate and decline.

Immigrants from Europe and elsewhere didn't come to Canada or western Canada a hundred years ago because the land was high priced.

 

[IanO]

I just got off of the phone with a large multi-family developer in Calgary and the tale of two cities could not be more true.

Ridiculous investment $$$ coming into Calgary, ~2x+ of new residents and I quote 'the amount of tech industry people moving here is significant'. This paired with an increasing delta is driving multi-fam, density and building its urban core at a very significant pace vis a vis.

He is optimistic about Edmonton given how low prices are and that the delta 'must being to close', but cheap is more indicative of a lack of demand versus something to cheer about and promoting as 'affordable'.

 

[IanO]

$75 psf of land is a good price for a purchaser but 927,400 sf is an awful lot of land to carry for what might be an awful long time.

The bigger question is where will this capital be redirected?

-Sedona?
-109st 'Cascadia 4.0'?
-Kelowna?

 

[EdmTrekker]

The bigger question is where will this capital be redirected?

-Sedona?
-109st 'Cascadia 4.0'?
-Kelowna?

Maybe pay down debt that had become due.

 

[Gronk!]

The bigger question is where will this capital be redirected?

-Sedona?
-109st 'Cascadia 4.0'?
-Kelowna?

Sedona, please. That derelict eyesore that it's supposed to replace is an embarrassment.

 

[TAS]

I disagree, it can fuel growth. I believe the overly expensive cities will eventually stagnate and decline.

Immigrants from Europe and elsewhere didn't come to Canada or western Canada a hundred years ago because the land was high priced.

That's for sure. Early on it was free.

"The Dominion Lands Act of 1872 created free and fertile homesteads (of 160 acres) for settlers from land previously inhabited by Indigenous peoples. The establishment of the North-West Mounted Police in 1873 guaranteed the safety of Prairie settlers and further dispossessed Indigenous residents."

 

[CaptainBL]

I just got off of the phone with a large multi-family developer in Calgary and the tale of two cities could not be more true.

Ridiculous investment $$$ coming into Calgary, ~2x+ of new residents and I quote 'the amount of tech industry people moving here is significant'. This paired with an increasing delta is driving multi-fam, density and building its urban core at a very significant pace vis a vis.

He is optimistic about Edmonton given how low prices are and that the delta 'must being to close', but cheap is more indicative of a lack of demand versus something to cheer about and promoting as 'affordable'.

I can substantiate this as well. My firm which is Edmonton based, is seeing multiples higher investment opportunities for multifamily in Calgary than in Edmonton. We are accelerating opening a Calgary office for this reason simply because the population increase in Calgary is materially higher than here.

The influx in population now is not what has happened historically. This is not a historical oil boom that fueled people coming to Alberta in both Edmonton and Calgary. What is happening now instead is that affordability is driving people out of BC and Ontario, and Alberta and primarily Calgary is attractive because 1. it is more relatively affordable than BC and Ontario and 2. Yes, allllll those thousands of tech jobs that (or "call center" jobs that some like to refer to them as) that have been announced over the past 2 years in Calgary are really impacting prospects in the city and providing those people leaving BC and Ontario a landing spot. While Edmonton is certainly more affordable, those same job opportunities do not exist here in the same number or quality. Our real estate market is diverging from Calgary quite a bit and being affordable isn't great if its because of a lack of demand.

 

[David A]

Edmonton is doing fairly well in industrial land development and affordability is driving that. That development leads to both construction and longer term jobs.

Maybe not as glamorous as tech, but not everyone is a computer programmer or wants to work in a call centre.

As per Post #903 we actually seem to be doing quite well compared to many other places in housing starts. I suspect affordability is part of that too.

If prices are not increasing as fast here as some other places, that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you are trying to sell something right away).

 

[CaptainBL]

Edmonton is doing fairly well in industrial land development and affordability is driving that. That development leads to both construction and longer term jobs.

Maybe not as glamorous as tech, but not everyone is a computer programmer or wants to work in a call centre.

As per Post #903 we actually seem to be doing quite well compared to many other places in housing starts. I suspect affordability is part of that too.

If prices are not increasing as fast here as some other places, that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you are trying to sell something right away).

The posts above weren't at all about whether Edmonton is doing well or not, they were commentaries from Ian's and my experience and connections and conversation forming observations about what people in the market are doing and saying about Edmonton and Calgary.

Many investors and developers, including my firm are working in both Edmonton and Calgary. Why? Because yes, there are things happening in Edmonton and Edmonton is doing just fine (Edmonton doing good enough is our motto right?). These discussion points aren't mutually exclusive. BUT the commentary is why there is less happening in Edmonton and why that is maintaining affordability.

I'm so confused by what people want on this forum. You want a vibrant city, you want construction of multiple towers downtown, but the slightest critical observations that surveyed all of 3 different market players active in both Edmonton and Calgary of why those things aren't happening as much or as fast triggers some sort of inferiority complex induced defense mechanism that requires saying Edmonton is doing well because of [insert cherry picked reason here].

Calgary is doing just as well if not better than Edmonton in industrial land development, I have investments in Calgary's industrial expansion. It is possible to have unglamorous industrial jobs in your burbs AND professional jobs in your downtown, which Edmonton seems to be allergic to while Calgary has been excelling at. The result of that as far as my work is concerned is driving the real estate development activity delta in my previous post.

 

[Romanov]

I just got off of the phone with a large multi-family developer in Calgary and the tale of two cities could not be more true.

Ridiculous investment $$$ coming into Calgary, ~2x+ of new residents and I quote 'the amount of tech industry people moving here is significant'. This paired with an increasing delta is driving multi-fam, density and building its urban core at a very significant pace vis a vis.

He is optimistic about Edmonton given how low prices are and that the delta 'must being to close', but cheap is more indicative of a lack of demand versus something to cheer about and promoting as 'affordable'.

I wonder if any real estate services firms have posted about population growth for the two cities for Q1 and Q2, would be interested to see the delta.

I disagree and think affordability is still something to promote. Why do you think people from ON and BC are choosing Calgary? Alberta is calling? Yes, calgary has other aspects that are enticing, but the main driver in this major shift to AB from other provinces was affordability, right? That's what was being promoted by Kenney, no? Calgary is more affordable than ON and BC and has more attributes than Edmonton. That said, Edmonton may see windfall from all of this as well, and there may even be convergence in pricing - long term. In the short term, the delta in pricing is growing.

Regarding investment and development, Calgary will continue more urban build out, as their economy and community is more centered on downtown. Edmonton has a long way to go in this regard.

 

[MacLac]

I just got off of the phone with a large multi-family developer in Calgary and the tale of two cities could not be more true.

Ridiculous investment $$$ coming into Calgary, ~2x+ of new residents and I quote 'the amount of tech industry people moving here is significant'. This paired with an increasing delta is driving multi-fam, density and building its urban core at a very significant pace vis a vis.

He is optimistic about Edmonton given how low prices are and that the delta 'must being to close', but cheap is more indicative of a lack of demand versus something to cheer about and promoting as 'affordable'.

That’s where Trudeau is placing all the Ukrainians and subsidizing their rent. So of course their numbers are going up more then here but when they have tot start paying…..they’ll all move here. Betcha he didn’t tell you that part eh?

 

[Romanov]

^I cannot tell if this is for comedic effect.

 

[IanO]

Edmonton is doing fairly well in industrial land development and affordability is driving that. That development leads to both construction and longer term jobs.

Maybe not as glamorous as tech, but not everyone is a computer programmer or wants to work in a call centre.

As per Post #903 we actually seem to be doing quite well compared to many other places in housing starts. I suspect affordability is part of that too.

If prices are not increasing as fast here as some other places, that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you are trying to sell something right away).

I wonder if any real estate services firms have posted about population growth for the two cities for Q1 and Q2, would be interested to see the delta.

I disagree and think affordability is still something to promote. Why do you think people from ON and BC are choosing Calgary? Alberta is calling? Yes, calgary has other aspects that are enticing, but the main driver in this major shift to AB from other provinces was affordability, right? That's what was being promoted by Kenney, no? Calgary is more affordable than ON and BC and has more attributes than Edmonton. That said, Edmonton may see windfall from all of this as well, and there may even be convergence in pricing - long term. In the short term, the delta in pricing is growing.

Regarding investment and development, Calgary will continue more urban build out, as their economy and community is more centered on downtown. Edmonton has a long way to go in this regard.

Keep in mind that those are for Edmonton proper and not CMA. Calgary is ~30% larger as a city in terms of population with a much denser core and is far more marketable to a broader range of immigrants, migrants, settlers.

Calgary - 1,592.4/km2 (4,124/sq mi)
Edmonton - 1,320.4/km2 (3,420/sq mi)

I highly doubt that Edmonton will see a convergence again, but it will certainly close that gap eventually. That said, I've lost ~25% on my condo in Downtown Edmonton in the last 3 years and the same unit in Calgary has seen 15-20% growth+; that hurts... but hey, affordable!

The average condo price in Calgary is $318k, whereas in Edmonton it is now $180k; it would not surprise me one bit to see the average condo price surpass the average house price in Edmonton by this time next year.

 

[kcantor]

The bigger question is where will this capital be redirected?

-Sedona?
-109st 'Cascadia 4.0'?
-Kelowna?

there won’t be any capital redirected without a sale and even with a sale lenders (either asset based or balance sheet based) will need to be made whole before and redirection… i know that’s taken for granted by those with some familiarity of the industry but it’s worth noting for those for those who are not.

 

[Romanov]

Keep in mind that those are for Edmonton proper and not CMA. Calgary is ~30% larger as a city in terms of population with a much denser core and is far more marketable to a broader range of immigrants, migrants, settlers.

Calgary - 1,592.4/km2 (4,124/sq mi)
Edmonton - 1,320.4/km2 (3,420/sq mi)

I highly doubt that Edmonton will see a convergence again, but it will certainly close that gap eventually. That said, I've lost ~25% on my condo in Downtown Edmonton in the last 3 years and the same unit in Calgary has seen 15-20% growth+; that hurts... but hey, affordable!

The average condo price in Calgary is $318k, whereas in Edmonton it is now $180k; it would not surprise me one bit to see the average condo price surpass the average house price in Edmonton by this time next year.

Thanks for providing these numbers. I was hoping to see the CMA numbers to compare the regions as a whole as well. Speaking with realtors, they have mentioned Edmontons growth is not centered on downtown and is instead spread across the CMA and nearby towns. Realtor did mention inventory was starting to run lower in Edmonton but not to the point where significant price growth is happening.

When I said convergence, it was meant in terms of closing the gap. We will probably not see the same level of price parity anytime soon.

As you pointed out, Calgary proper has a higher population and is more urban. This is not new. The gap in density is just widening especially with the influx of professionals into Calgary.

I am not saying we can rely on being affordable and call it a day. But it is one of the tools in the tool box to promote Edmonton. Of course, we need other incentives for people to move here, that goes without saying. And right now Edmonton is doing very poorly to market itself.

Sorry to hear about your condo situation. I am not defending Edmonton, and condo owners should be upset that the city has reached a point where condo ownership is undesirable.