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@dunno you are right... the article that I was relying on was referring to Vancouver proper. Your numbers are closer to true...

at least until either one of two future events come to pass:
1. a sudden and dramatic rise in sea level (https://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica)
2. an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 to 9.0 (Richter Scale) (https://globalnews.ca/news/3981536/tsunami-earthquake-canada-the-big-one/)
It is hard to build on mountains and oceans, so the future growth of Vancouver will be constrained. Yes, they can build up, but the Canadian dream is not to pay a million or more for a tiny condo which will also not seem so great in an earthquake. Perhaps even worse, Richmond, which currently has a lot of people, is sort of like Florida. In the future it will not be there.
 
Predictions for Edmonton's population on July 1, 2023?

Last year StatsCan said the population was 1,516,719 on July 1, 2022.

We know we have grown by something like 3% this year.

So I'm thinking 1,560,000

By mid 2024 we are easily above 1.6 million. Huge milestone. Closer to 2 million than to 1 million.
I think about what the biggest effects we will see moving from being a metro in the 1 millionish range to 2 millionish range. I think the most noticeable thing will be the inter/intracity transportation changes. Density and population within the city supporting projects and big growth in Edmonton/Calgary hopefully supporting a new transportation mode (rail) between the two.

What else should we realistically expect? I don't think we will see a big change in things like sports franchises or office HQs but curious what noticeable changes might be seen from today to say the 2 million mark..
 
I think about what the biggest effects we will see moving from being a metro in the 1 millionish range to 2 millionish range. I think the most noticeable thing will be the inter/intracity transportation changes. Density and population within the city supporting projects and big growth in Edmonton/Calgary hopefully supporting a new transportation mode (rail) between the two.

What else should we realistically expect? I don't think we will see a big change in things like sports franchises or office HQs but curious what noticeable changes might be seen from today to say the 2 million mark..
I don't have a great urge to travel to Calgary frequently. In fact I wish more companies would have more staff and offices here rather than make people travel back and forth as much.

I think we need to focus on the transportation system within the city and say from the city to the airport.
 
I think about what the biggest effects we will see moving from being a metro in the 1 millionish range to 2 millionish range. I think the most noticeable thing will be the inter/intracity transportation changes. Density and population within the city supporting projects and big growth in Edmonton/Calgary hopefully supporting a new transportation mode (rail) between the two.

What else should we realistically expect? I don't think we will see a big change in things like sports franchises or office HQs but curious what noticeable changes might be seen from today to say the 2 million mark..
Good question. I think we could expect to see some big differences as we approach 2mil. These might include more direct flights, more grassroots organizations popping up, further boost in U of A rankings, bigger draw for immigration, more well known nationally/ internationally, probably we would permanently shed the government town label, more local media like magazines and local blogs, and I think there would be a renewed push for national firms to open offices here to take advantage of the local market. Traffic will be worse and transit busier throughout all times of the day and night.
 

I'm very curious to see what the effect is in Edmonton or what the expected numbers are, or what the spillover effect for this is. Honestly, I'm hoping stuff like this really pushes more multifamily development in the city and for our zoning bylaw reform to go full 110%. It'd be nice if we could limit the rent increases to reasonable percentages if we just smack and build as much as we can for new Edmontonians and current ones (like myself, pls I want a cute one bedroom in the core without facing a 47% increase like that hive of scum and villainy down south in Calgary)
 
Alberta is very close to 4.7 million which doing some rough math means the Edmonton CMA is probably around 1,564,000 people and the city of Edmonton 1,115,000

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Interesting how the market isn't reacting too hastily though. Vacancy rates do appear to be dropping but housing starts also seem to be trending down.

https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-owl/housing-starts-march-2023/

Housing prices are down or flat in some cases (interest rates a factor) and rents are up a bit I believe (particularly Calgary) but interest rates might be behind some of that as well.

I wonder if there was just a lot of slack available?
 
Edmonton can definitely sustain it for a while. Calgary might have trouble though, especially if they don't reform their zoning bylaws.
We have loads of developable land even within established neighbourhoods that can support that much density, however developers would have to pay for servicing upgrades for much of it.
 
50,000 increase in the Alberta population in 50 days is 365,000 a year or 8% increase. This is not sustainable.

I'm trying to just picture where all these people are going. It's safe to assume the vast majority are ending up in the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs, with a handful going to Red Deer, Grande Prairie and Lethbridge, and the crumbs being spread around the rest of the province. Assume 40,000 of the 50,000 are going to Edmonton or Calgary, and for ease of argument, say 20,000 for each. So 20,000 in Edmonton's CMA in 50 days.

It's not unfathomable to house this many people this quickly but construction would have to ramp up significantly. I know there's a fair number of new suburbs being built, but it honestly seems slower than the 2007-2020 period. And when you look at a lot of these new neighbourhoods fully built out, the populations are often around 5,000-8,000 inhabitants. So we'd be needing to build multiple suburban neighbourhoods within 50 days to house this influx. Maybe my perception is off. There is infill, and of course Edmonton has abundant room within its footprint for far more people, it just doesn't seem like there's a lot. Downtown has Falcon and the Parks and Stationlands under construction, but not much else really. Augustana, the View, CNIB, Encore, etc. recently finished or are about to finish, but even if these towers hold 1,000 people, that's still not enough. There's of course, smaller scale infill, from small condo and apartment blocks to skinny homes, but again, not what I'd expect if the city was housing this many people in such a short span of time.

20,000 in 50 days extrapolated to 1 year is 146,000. Not unforeseen, but that's the same tier of growth that cities like Toronto and Dallas have been pulling in and I don't think we're building as much as either.
 
If this pace continues, at some point soon there will be a very nasty and unexpected shock with rents and housing prices.
 
If this pace continues, at some point soon there will be a very nasty and unexpected shock with rents and housing prices.
Calgary is already seeing. Our large inventory is keeping the issues at bay, for now, but I have friends who moved from other provinces to Calgary and rents there have skyrocketed in the past 6 months, and even the requirements are similar to some places in the GTA or Vancouver (3-6 months of rent in advance, long wait lists, bidding, etc, for some places in the city).
 

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