[urbandreamer]

What a joke. The real recession hasn't begun!

 

[Observer Walt]

I am wondering what effect this will have on the polls. Will the Conservatives get a bounce, perhaps preventing a Fall election? And will McGuinty get a boost thereby making his virtually guaranteed majority to come even bigger?

I would respond opposite to Generation W: Probably, and possibly. Barring something totally unforeseen (major scandal, etc.), there will not be a federal election. Who wants it? (No one I know) Neither Conservatives nor Liberals have a snowball's hope of getting a majority, and I would suggest that the Liberals don't have momentum to grow even to form a minority government as things stand right now.

Provincially, I think people are slowly beginning to see the implications of the HST coming next year. This won't reflect well on McGuinty. But having said that, both of the provincial opposition parties have new / virtually unknown leaders and won't want to go to the polls any time soon.

 

[afransen]

I would respond opposite to Generation W: Probably, and possibly. Barring something totally unforeseen (major scandal, etc.), there will not be a federal election. Who wants it? (No one I know) Neither Conservatives nor Liberals have a snowball's hope of getting a majority, and I would suggest that the Liberals don't have momentum to grow even to form a minority government as things stand right now.

Provincially, I think people are slowly beginning to see the implications of the HST coming next year. This won't reflect well on McGuinty. But having said that, both of the provincial opposition parties have new / virtually unknown leaders and won't want to go to the polls any time soon.

If the Libs and CPC are neck and neck in popular support, the Liberals would probably win more seats, as the CPC vote is very inefficient (Alberta). The Liberals also stand to do quite well in Quebec. It very well may be that Iggy delays, but both sides are gearing up for the fall.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ We'll have to see how the polls play out if the recession starts stabilizing as the Bank of Canada predicts.

 

[lordmandeep]

Does the end of recession mean we have gone from -3% growth to like -2% growth or have gone back to 0% growth???

 

[GenerationW]

Does the end of recession mean we have gone from -3% growth to like -2% growth or have gone back to 0% growth???

I think a recession is usually defined as negative growth over two consecutive quarters, so I would assume that Apr-Jun saw positive growth.

 

[lordmandeep]

Funny thing our family business (sell movies and music (Indian) did really well from Jan-April

Had a poor May and June (worst June ever!!) Sales fell by 30%+

July has been great and business has returned to normal. Got a bit freaked out on how the last week of April we were doing great and then faced two straight months of slow business. Shocked how fast things change,

However I think lack of new product rather the recession to blame. However, the lack of new product is due to the recession.

 

[LAz]

I wonder what the impact will be on the political scene as the recession wraps up.

Oh that may not come anytime soon.


While the US statistics say that unemployment is down, any sniff at it shows how wrong they are. They do not include people who were on the unemployed list for how long - 3 months or 6 months? That is the only way that the illogical contradiction can be published here in the US, that unemployment goes down and 250,000 lose their jobs together in one month.





The US is a sinking shit ship. When fools stop buying up the debt, then things are really gonna go down. Down down down! Protectionism is the only way out, to bring back industry that was sent to china. Of course, that won't happen... as long as the free market policies are followed, the recession is gonna continue. People were saying "I told you so" over and over. This system has been on life support for too long. Growth in the 2000s in the US was often because of people working more hours, not because of real growth. Wages did not rise much. The fall was imminent, and in my opinion long over due.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ We were discussing the impact on Canada. I am not overly concerned with what happens south of the border. They'll recover in their own time.

 

[LAz]

^ We were discussing the impact on Canada. I am not overly concerned with what happens south of the border. They'll recover in their own time.

Actually, the more the US falls, the more Canada falls. Are you not aware of how dependent Canada is on the US?

Further, there are many shared systematic problems in both countries.

 

[kEiThZ]

Actually, the more the US falls, the more Canada falls. Are you not aware of how dependent Canada is on the US?

Further, there are many shared systematic problems in both countries.

And in case you aren't aware, we sat out the last US recession and according to the Bank of Canada (if you read the leading article) Canada's recession is ending this quarter. We maybe dependent on the US market. But we are not necessarily dependent on the US economy.

This thread was meant to discuss the implications of the recession ending here in Canada. I suspect that our southern cousins will continue to see economic pains for a while yet.

 

[urbandreamer]

^What recession? OSK just tripled, F was an 8-bagger, and the most of the $INDU stocks doubled in the past 4 months!

 

[kEiThZ]

Sigh,

Like many a misguided yank, LAz keeps trying to draw ridiculous parallels between Canada and the US (in this and other threads) which then lets him reach some remarkable conclusions. Not aware of any of our economic fundamentals he suggests we have 'systematic problems' in common with the US. Now I am not generally a US basher and I generally decry that kind of comparative penile patriotism, but I would surely suggest that even the most cursory comparison of the two countries would show that Canada is far better off in this recession and going forward.

 

[LAz]

I would surely suggest that even the most cursory comparison of the two countries would show that Canada is far better off in this recession

I concur.

And in case you aren't aware, we sat out the last US recession and according to the Bank of Canada (if you read the leading article) Canada's recession is ending this quarter. We maybe dependent on the US market. But we are not necessarily dependent on the US economy.

Lets see, the US bellies over now, and Canada does too. Link1. Who knows when it will end. Institutions want us to think that it will end soon - and I saw business press reports saying for so long that there will be no depression. What idiots.

The last one was in the early 2000s, and correct me if I am wrong, but Canada got hit in that one. Pretty bad too. Link2.

Link3 was the early 1990s depression. Neither regime survived the depression.





Canada is not called america junior for nothing. At least one US dollar is not equal to 1.65 Canadian anymore. Man those were the days. I remember going there and seeing every single place where I went gladly accept american dollars over canadian.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ Ever since the oil boom in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, our economy has been de-linking from the US slowly but surely. The thing about oil is that there will always be more than one market for it. If Americans aren't thirsty enough for our oil, there's always China or India. Unfortunately, ignorant Americans like yourself haven't caught up to that reality. We aren't USA junior anymore. That's the reason we sat out the last recession (the one in 2000 in the US). And the resource sector is a big part of why we are pulling out of this one fairly quickly. This short Wiki article explains our situation in the early 2000s recession:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession#Canada

As for your slag at our institutions.... the Bank of Canada is reliable and apolitical not like institutions in the US. If it says Canada is pulling out of a recession, we Canadians tend to believe it. But there are other signs as well. Housing sales are up sharply in many cities. Home prices and housing starts are rising and some industrial sectors are coming back to life as well.

And after oil, the rest of our economy is starting to focus on these emerging markets as well. You maybe our biggest trade partner today. But increasingly our most valuable exports go elsewhere. And in time so will most of our trade. Our leaders have realized for a while that hitching our wagon to a falling star is not a good idea.

And lastly your jibe at the dollar. I seemed to recall last summer when the 1 CAD was worth 1.35 USD. Even now during this recession we are at about 1 CAD = 0.90 USD....and there's still a lot of establishments in the northern US and in places like Florida that will give Canadians a 10% discount and accept the dollar on par....guess they are just that desperate for business. The days of 1 CAD being equal 50-65 cents US are long gone and are never coming back. The fiscal irresponsibility of successive US governments (even Obama won't do that much better on this front) will ensure that. Even by percentage of GDP, our government will spend less on its 5 year deficit than merely the next 2 years of deficit in the US. And that's coming from a lower debt-GDP ratio. On top of all that, Canadians tend to vote out governments that don't balance the books. You can be sure that that it will be an election issue if the economy improves and the books aren't balanced. There is no such hope for you in the US.

I won't brag too much about the fact that we were the only country in the developed world not to lose a financial institution to the recent turmoil, or the fact that we don't have pension (and we have a more generous pension plan) or health care liabilities going into the future. Let's just agree that the fundamentals are sufficiently different that we don't always follow the same economic path.