By the TTC's own figures, as you've shown, the cost of finishing the BD is roughly comparable to refurbishing the RT and extending it up to Malvern. All that's leaving aside the fact that it costs the TTC as much to build 5km of subway with two stops as it costs Vancouver to build over 18km of RT with 16 stops, mostly underground. I'm sure with serious examination of elevated/surface options, the TTC could shave the subway extension cost under $1 billion. But I digress.
Again, by the TTC's own numbers, less than a quarter of riders on the RT are actually going to Malvern. That means that this $1.2 billion expenditure will do absolutely
nothing to improve transit to over three quarters of transit riders in north and central Scarborough. Nothing for Milliken. Nothing for Alton Towers. Nothing for Woburn. Nothing for UTSC. Worst of all, it does nothing for Scarborough Centre. By contrast, an identical expenditure to extend the subway will significantly improve service for well over 95% of riders (excluding those in the immediate vicinity of Ellesmere station, the least busy on the entire TTC network). Everybody in Scarborough will enjoy the elimination of the unnecessary and inconvenient Kennedy transfer, and will shave 10 minutes (or more during one of the RT's routine outages) off every single trip. Recall that the RT is also thoroughly overcrowded, so much so that the TTC is obliged to provide parallel express buses to relieve the pressure. These new RT cars will offer only a marginal capacity improvement at great cost. No doubt they'll also be overcrowded in a few years.
I have spoken to several senior planners from the Scarborough district, and all are completely baffled by the TTC's plans. They can't understand why Scarborough Centre is being relentlessly bypassed, despite being the major designated growth centre in the official plan, by far the biggest destination, and the hub of most buses in Scarboough.
As for Malvern, a major and instant improvement could be provided though the introduction of a Neilson express bus. If Malvern needs a billion dollar RT and two billion dollar streetcars, surely it merits an express bus! The current Neilson route takes half an hour to wind its way down Ellesmere and though the hospital. If it used a shoulder bus lane on the 401 (similar to the arrangement on the 403) from McCowan to Neilson, it could potentially provide quick service from Malvern to major destinations like Scarborough Centre and downtown. All this at a cost measured in the thousands, not billions.
In every other city on earth, it doesn't take a decade and a half to build a subway line.
A parallel subway would also provide the immense benefit of keeping the RT open thoughout the construction period. The refurbishment will require closure for up to a year (or much more if the TTC's as good at keeping to timelines as it was on St. Clair), which would push many riders to other modes. It might not be easy to attract them back with no improvement to their service other than slightly bigger and newer cars at the end of it all.
Countless public meetings were held a few years ago on the subject of replacing the RT, and the
overwhelming majority of Scarborough residents demanded a subway. I attended all of those meetings and I didn't hear a single person voice the complaint you're suggesting (though one did express concern about the pernicious effects of electromagnetic radiation, and there was the obligatory monorail proposal).
Potential subway routings could bring rapid transit much closer to Danforth/McCowan than it is today. They already have to take a bus to the subway. I don't see how it would be any different today. Brimley and Ellesmere would be served much better by a subway than it is by the RT. Are you perhaps thinking of different intersections?
And then there's the lost stations. Oh, the tragedy of losing two of the most underused stations on the TTC system. The deserted Ellesmere stationd doesn't even connect with the York Mills bus, while Midland is in the middle of a low-density industrial park. Its few riders come from Midland bus transfers, and what little ridership it does have would be eviscerated if Sheppard were ever completed. As I said, not a single user of those stops was moved to come out to a public meeting and ask for their station to be saved.
The only risk to the Transit City concept would be a change to using the right mode for the job, rather than using LRT for everything. Absolutely Sheppard should be finished, and to STC, not out to farmer's fields and forests at Twyn Rivers.
In my opinion, here's a much more sensible transit plan for north and central Scarborough, at a comparable cost to the RT extension/Transit City plan:
- Eliminating the preposterous "Scarborough LRT" north of Kingston and Eglinton, where it would pass mostly empty fields, forests, and the backyards of suburban two-car-garage houses
- Eliminating the Sheppard streetcar out to the woods at Twyn Rivers
- Replacing the RT with a subway to STC, elevated where possible, possibly routed east to McCowan and north, serving several densely-populated neighbourhoods
- Finishing Sheppard to STC as originally intended, using a tunnelled ROW to Kennedy, then an elevated alignment above the creek, and finally re-using the existing RT alignment into Scarborough Centre, at a vastly lower cost than tunnelling the whole way
- An LRT line east on Ellesmere from STC to the hospital and UTSC
- An LRT line north on McCowan from STC to Alton Towers and up to Markville Mall and the GO station in Markham, with a second branch to Malvern via Finch
