[ericmacm]

Maybe unrelated, but this project seems to emblemize what you’ve said about the Greenbelt before, and how it’s affecting land use patterns- ie the leapfrog effect.

If people have questions or problems with this project and its location, I suggest that this is the inevitable consequence. I personally just find it really jarring that this kind of location actually makes sense. This instance isn’t the worst, but I can’t imagine they wouldn’t have liked to be closer to the GTA… and the whitebelt is obviously not in the budget for a lot of these new mega plants. Still, I will leave open the question of whether or not this is desirable or a problem.

There are many factors that makes these types of sites preferred for large industrial developments:

• The large parcels of land required are easier to find and cheaper to buy in rural settings or mid-sized cities. In a place like the GTA you’d be competing aggressively with developers for these kinds of lands, if they are even available in the first place.
• These developments often require good access to both rail and highways, as well as having close connectivity to the power grid. You are more likely to find sites that fit these criteria, along with the size criteria, in rural settings or mid-sized cities.
• A smaller city or town with a less diverse industrial base is more likely to be cooperative from both the general population and the government in order to receive jobs and additional spin-off industry.
• Regulatory approval is easier. As an example, industrial operations like this require Environmental Compliance Approval for things like noise and air emissions to operate. It is much easier to obtain this approval (requiring less mitigation measures and/or operational restrictions) when nobody is living nearby and your neighbours are either agricultural fields or other industrial buildings.
• There are other plants nearby. Toyota has operations in Cambridge and Woodstock already with numerous other supplier plants nearby. It makes sense to locate amidst this cluster rather than spreading out. It is the same reason why you see Stellantis concentrating in Windsor.
• There is often significantly less resistance to construction and less NIMBY influences. It’s not possible to eliminate this fully since people are always going to find things to complain about, but if the community wants the jobs, there will generally be more support. Consider an example like the CN Milton Logistics Hub. The people in Milton didn’t want this in their community because they were concerned about air emissions (which is more or less unavoidable at this time along railways and trucking hubs) affecting residential neighbourhoods nearby. While the hub eventually got approved, it took many additional years of back and forth in addition to lawsuits. Building a new high-profile auto plant in a GTA municipality introduces greater risk for something like this happening.

All this to say that in short, it’s easier/less risky and cheaper to build these kinds of things outside of the GTA and on the other side of the Greenbelt.

 

[ZEBuilder]

Maybe unrelated, but this project seems to emblemize what you’ve said about the Greenbelt before, and how it’s affecting land use patterns- ie the leapfrog effect.

If people have questions or problems with this project and its location, I suggest that this is the inevitable consequence. I personally just find it really jarring that this kind of location actually makes sense. This instance isn’t the worst, but I can’t imagine they wouldn’t have liked to be closer to the GTA… and the whitebelt is obviously not in the budget for a lot of these new mega plants. Still, I will leave open the question of whether or not this is desirable or a problem.

This isn't really a case of the leap frog effect, especially if it does turn out to be Toyota, if it was Ford or GM sure but not Toyota.

The simple reason Toyota doesn't want to be closer to the GTA is they already have plants in Cambridge and Woodstock, why would they want to put something in Hamilton or Mississauga when this location is pretty much a mid point between the existing plants from a logistics view it makes the most sense.

Another thing is you already have all your parts manufacturers in and around Waterloo Region, Toyota has been producing vehicles for almost 40 years now in Cambridge, and nearly 20 in Woodstock. All the suppliers are close by so it doesn't really make sense to build a new Toyota plant in the GTA. You have Linamar and Magna in Guelph, Aisin, FIO Automotive, Dyna Mig are all in Stratford, both Magna and Aisin are building large additions to their facilities. Woodstock already has a Toyota assembly plant but also a parts plant. Plus the numerous other companies involved in the entire Toyota supply chain that are in the KWC area. So why would Toyota want to make a logistic headache of having parts take the 401 between the GTA and Cambridge/Woodstock?

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

..plus emission issues would likely increase if they have this thing built out of the way here.

 

[Sunnyside]

This isn't really a case of the leap frog effect, especially if it does turn out to be Toyota, if it was Ford or GM sure but not Toyota.

The simple reason Toyota doesn't want to be closer to the GTA is they already have plants in Cambridge and Woodstock, why would they want to put something in Hamilton or Mississauga when this location is pretty much a mid point between the existing plants from a logistics view it makes the most sense.

Another thing is you already have all your parts manufacturers in and around Waterloo Region, Toyota has been producing vehicles for almost 40 years now in Cambridge, and nearly 20 in Woodstock. All the suppliers are close by so it doesn't really make sense to build a new Toyota plant in the GTA. You have Linamar and Magna in Guelph, Aisin, FIO Automotive, Dyna Mig are all in Stratford, both Magna and Aisin are building large additions to their facilities. Woodstock already has a Toyota assembly plant but also a parts plant. Plus the numerous other companies involved in the entire Toyota supply chain that are in the KWC area. So why would Toyota want to make a logistic headache of having parts take the 401 between the GTA and Cambridge/Woodstock?

I did not realize how much of Toyota's supply chain was already localized- that certainly explains how this location came to be preferred.

There are many factors that makes these types of sites preferred for large industrial developments:

• The large parcels of land required are easier to find and cheaper to buy in rural settings or mid-sized cities. In a place like the GTA you’d be competing aggressively with developers for these kinds of lands, if they are even available in the first place.
• These developments often require good access to both rail and highways, as well as having close connectivity to the power grid. You are more likely to find sites that fit these criteria, along with the size criteria, in rural settings or mid-sized cities.
• A smaller city or town with a less diverse industrial base is more likely to be cooperative from both the general population and the government in order to receive jobs and additional spin-off industry.
• Regulatory approval is easier. As an example, industrial operations like this require Environmental Compliance Approval for things like noise and air emissions to operate. It is much easier to obtain this approval (requiring less mitigation measures and/or operational restrictions) when nobody is living nearby and your neighbours are either agricultural fields or other industrial buildings.

• There is often significantly less resistance to construction and less NIMBY influences. It’s not possible to eliminate this fully since people are always going to find things to complain about, but if the community wants the jobs, there will generally be more support. Consider an example like the CN Milton Logistics Hub. The people in Milton didn’t want this in their community because they were concerned about air emissions (which is more or less unavoidable at this time along railways and trucking hubs) affecting residential neighbourhoods nearby. While the hub eventually got approved, it took many additional years of back and forth in addition to lawsuits. Building a new high-profile auto plant in a GTA municipality introduces greater risk for something like this happening.

All this to say that in short, it’s easier/less risky and cheaper to build these kinds of things outside of the GTA and on the other side of the Greenbelt.

I think we agree that the GTA+Whitebelt is effectively now the 'urban' land market. But let's be clear that this site is not exceptionally rural, either; it's adjacent to a KW satellite community, which itself increasingly orbits Toronto. Following your logic here, Baden-NH has raised complaints, too- its a good spot for Toyota, but what about the next guy?

Also, the CN Milton example is a bit different- it started out as something comparable to this site, but the City's complain-without-planning approach ensured there would be people nearby to complain later. It didn't ultimately matter, because CN operates above any local land use framework- they could probably build in the Greenbelt if they felt like it.

"leapfrogging" development is definitely a huge consequence of the Greenbelt (and really more so the Growth Plan) - but I'm not sure this plant is one of them.

Auto plants simply need immense amounts of land, even in the US and europe they are typically built in remote areas where large tracts of land can be purchased affordably. They just aren't urban uses.

Look at Telsa Berlin:
Honda Marysville, OH:
Volvo South Carolina:
Etc. Car plants are simply not urban uses any longer.

Industrial needs are also not easily "built denser" like housing is, so is definitely not where we want to be focusing our "Anti sprawl" efforts. We could look at ways to minimize footprints of employment uses, but most non-white collar employment uses simply need large tracts of land.

I can concede Toyota still has good reason to locate here because of the logistical benefit. But I'm curious what in the GP makes you think it's played a larger role. And for clarity, I'm trying to address the emerging locational behaviour at large; there could just as easily have been better lands on the 401 near Guelph, with rail into Cambridge, but it's not an option. I just hope we aren't determining winners and losers arbitrarily- a plant makes sense in Location A and B, but you can only choose A, etc.

 

[christiesplits]

I'm curious if the tariffs and recent layoffs at the Ingersoll GM plant could put this project in jeopardy.

 

[ZEBuilder]

I'm curious if the tariffs and recent layoffs at the Ingersoll GM plant could put this project in jeopardy.

This is years out to begin with so yes the current economic climate is going to cause issues for existing facilities but the Region is not going to change course on this assembly given how much they've already invested in it. In the grand scheme of things it may end up not being Toyota but the reality is the Region does not have a large parcel anywhere else that isn't already owned by developers or greatly restricted due to geography or transport issues. The Region while they haven't disclosed it publicly has contracts worth millions with various engineering firms for works surrounding the assembly (geotechnical/hydrogeological/surveying/capacity analysis for water/wastewater and more) so unless they want to throw all that work away they are likely to stick to the plan for the foreseeable future.

 

[ShonTron]

Not to mention Honda Alliston and, much earlier, Ford Talbotville. Ford Oakville has been there for years with the town pretty much growing around it. Regardless of the required footprint, auto assembly plants need direct access to both highway and rail. When Honda was searching around for a site for their engine plant years ago, they initially included Midland as a potential community until the realized the rail line had been abandoned

The auto makers also have their preferred rail carriers. Toyota's Woodstock plant is equal distance to the CN and CP mainlines, but the rail connection is with CP, which also serves the Cambridge Plant (former Grand River Ry). Honda also has a CP connection in Alliston, but when they selected Allison, there was still a CN spur to Beeton that wasn't abandoned yet. They ended up building the engine plant on the Beeton Sub.

GM, Chrysler (Stellantis), and Ford all ship from CN.

 

[lenaitch]

The auto makers also have their preferred rail carriers. Toyota's Woodstock plant is equal distance to the CN and CP mainlines, but the rail connection is with CP, which also serves the Cambridge Plant (former Grand River Ry). Honda also has a CP connection in Alliston, but when they selected Allison, there was still a CN spur to Beeton that wasn't abandoned yet. They ended up building the engine plant on the Beeton Sub.

GM, Chrysler (Stellantis), and Ford all ship from CN.

Wow, I didn't realize Honda Plant 1 has been there since 1986. Wiki says that part of the former H&NWRR wasn't abandoned until 1990 but I have no recollection of ever seeing service on it; just rusty rails.

 

[ShonTron]

Wow, I didn't realize Honda Plant 1 has been there since 1986. Wiki says that part of the former H&NWRR wasn't abandoned until 1990 but I have no recollection of ever seeing service on it; just rusty rails.

I suspect CN kept it just long enough to see if they would get the Honda traffic. I think there were still some agro traffic at Beeton and Cookstown until the late 1980s.

 

[ZEBuilder]

The auto makers also have their preferred rail carriers. Toyota's Woodstock plant is equal distance to the CN and CP mainlines, but the rail connection is with CP, which also serves the Cambridge Plant (former Grand River Ry). Honda also has a CP connection in Alliston, but when they selected Allison, there was still a CN spur to Beeton that wasn't abandoned yet. They ended up building the engine plant on the Beeton Sub.

GM, Chrysler (Stellantis), and Ford all ship from CN.

While Toyota in Cambridge has the rail connection with CP they move a ton of freight via the CN line, you will regularly see trains moving north from the Hagey Yard (CP) to the yard just north of Maple Grove (CP), then onto the CP yard at the CN/CP interchange at the CN Huron Park spur which feeds the CN Guelph subdivision.

They do regularly go south down to the CP Galt subdivision but the rail connection being with CP doesn't mean much when they ship a significant amount via CN.