Ugh. Richard White is just not a good writer, and a much worse researcher. The "math" he does is full of really broad, and poorly researched assumptions . "I made a broad guess that 70% of births happen in newer neighbourhoods." Why this number? "90% of deaths each year are from developed communities". Again, why this number?
Also, he makes broad claims about affordability, but does he have ANY research to back this up? Nope. Just because an infill in Hillhurst may cost a million dollars, that doesn't mean that the established areas are unaffordable. Forest Lawn. Erin Woods. Bowness. Southwood. Applewood Park. Thorncliffe. Marlborough. Haysboro. Fairview. All of those are in the established areas. Not really places where you need a million dollars to buy a home.
This is a HORRIBLY researched article. The Civic census is available, every year, in excel format. You can at least do some math and try and back up your assumptions.
One thing these articles, and the research they cite, constantly miss, is the effect of declining populations in "outer suburbs" on the net population changes. In Calgary for example, 30% of growth from 2017 to 2018 occurred in our Centre City, Inner City and inner ring suburbs (pre-1965 burbs essentially). But only 16% of growth happened in all established areas (generally everything built to about 2000). Why? Because the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s neighbourhoods are bleeding population. Overall, these neighbourhoods lost 3000 people in 2017-2018.
Some examples:
Strathcona Park lost 176 people.
St Andrews Heights lost 121 people.
Lakeview lost 115
Hawkwood lost 163 people. Scenic Acres lost 161.
Edgemont (where I grew up) lost 259 people.
Beddington lost 216
Marlborough lost 177
Temple lost 137
Woodlands lost 234
Lake Bonavista, 127
Ogden- 249
McKenzie Lake- 178
Mill Rise- 142
This is the real story in Calgary, and many US and Canadian cities. Growth in inner cities and centre cities is very strong, and growing. But those suburbs we built from the 1960s on are declining fast. So when you lump in those areas with areas of high growth, it makes it look like everyone is moving to the suburbs, but in reality, the kids are moving out of the old suburbs and its skewing the numbers. If Richard took only a couple of hours of homework, he would have seen that clear as day.