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- Thread starter rp07
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andrewpmk
Senior Member
https://m.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/4jkog6/poll_shows_torontonians_want_more_bike_lanes_and/
Cycle Toronto did a survey which claims that a large number of people in Toronto support bike lanes. However, I think that there are many problems with the methodology of this survey which make the results useless:
Cycle Toronto did a survey which claims that a large number of people in Toronto support bike lanes. However, I think that there are many problems with the methodology of this survey which make the results useless:
- The survey was done using an online survey website called "Angus Reid Forum" where any person can sign up and get paid a small amount of money to complete surveys. The people using this website are not representative of the general population. A telephone survey would have been more reliable.
- The sample included a disproportionate number of people from the old city of Toronto and underrepresented outer parts of the city such as Scarborough.
- People who completed the survey probably ride bikes a lot more than average. My guess is that non-cyclists tended to not bother to complete the survey and were underrepresented. The survey claims that 21% of people ride a bike at least once a week and 28% ride a bike occasionally. According to the 2011 National Household Survey (which I realize is a voluntary survey so the data quality is not great, but probably much better than the Angus Reid survey) 25350 people in Toronto rode a bike to work in 2011 (2.16% of the employed population).
- The wording of questions probably encourages people to say that they support bike lanes more than they actually do.
the lemur
Senior Member
Once again, are you for real?
https://www.cycleto.ca/sites/default/files/Angus-Reid-Forum-Cycling-Poll-May-2016.pdf
People can't participate in a survey they're not invited to. ARF didn't pay people to take this one.
Telephone surveys over-rely on landlines, which fewer and fewer people have or rely on.
The sample included almost as many people in North York and Scarborough as in Old Toronto. Support in Scarborough was just as high as in Old Toronto; N York, E York and York only slightly less.
People who completed the survey were selected at random, without a mention of cycling in the invitation. Even so, people who are opposed to cycling or bike infrastructure also tend to want their opinions to be heard.
81% 0f self-identified non-cyclists were in favour.
I think that the vast majority of people in Toronto rarely or never ride a bike, do not care about bicycling and are pretty indifferent to the bike lane issue
I think you are wildly overestimating the number of people who think exactly like you do. Either that, or you are Doug Ford-level disingenuous.
andrewpmk
Senior Member
The number of people who answered the survey in the old city of Toronto is far higher than the number of people who answered the survey in Scarborough relative to the population of both areas which seems suspicious to me. I think that this survey overrepresented bicyclists and residents of the downtown core. It may also be that people tend to give socially acceptable answers in these surveys and claim to support bike lanes when they really do not. There is a huge disparity between the number of people in this survey who claim to support bike lanes and the number of people who actually use them on a regular basis.
As I said, I think that the vast majority of the population of Toronto does not ride a bicycle regularly and has little or no interest in bicycling. People who a ride a bicycle regularly are a couple percent of the population and are heavily concentrated in the downtown core. This is obvious when you count the number of bicycles on the road compared to the number of cars, number of pedestrians and the number of TTC riders. There is no way that 20% of the population rides a bike at least once a week in the entire city. If you look at the census % of people who ride a bike to work this should be obvious. Most people do not have a strong opinion for or against bike lanes. It amazes me how much people are disengaged in municipal politics in this city. That is why we end up with Rob Ford as mayor and large numbers of incompetent city councillors on city council. People either don't bother to vote, or go to the ballot box having little or no idea who the candidates are and vote based on name recognition.
As I said, I think that the vast majority of the population of Toronto does not ride a bicycle regularly and has little or no interest in bicycling. People who a ride a bicycle regularly are a couple percent of the population and are heavily concentrated in the downtown core. This is obvious when you count the number of bicycles on the road compared to the number of cars, number of pedestrians and the number of TTC riders. There is no way that 20% of the population rides a bike at least once a week in the entire city. If you look at the census % of people who ride a bike to work this should be obvious. Most people do not have a strong opinion for or against bike lanes. It amazes me how much people are disengaged in municipal politics in this city. That is why we end up with Rob Ford as mayor and large numbers of incompetent city councillors on city council. People either don't bother to vote, or go to the ballot box having little or no idea who the candidates are and vote based on name recognition.
LNahid2000
Senior Member
So you discount the study and then go on to prove your point by using anecdotal evidence as usual.
the lemur
Senior Member
The number of old city respondents is higher because the sample size was
weighted to age, gender, and borough by 2011 census.
Why would people be worried about giving 'socially acceptable answers' if they've been given an opportunity to provide their opinion ANONYMOUSLY in an online survey?
There is a huge disparity between the number of people in this survey who claim to support bike lanes and the number of people who actually use them on a regular basis
Possibly because you don't have to actually use bike lanes to be favourably disposed towards them? Kind of like if you drove everywhere you might still support sidewalks for pedestrians to use?
People who a ride a bicycle regularly are a couple percent of the population and are heavily concentrated in the downtown core. This is obvious when you count the number of bicycles on the road compared to the number of cars, number of pedestrians and the number of TTC riders. There is no way that 20% of the population rides a bike at least once a week in the entire city
You've done a traffic count, have you? What IS the number of pedestrians or TTC riders? Might they not be the same people who sometimes drive, walk or bike?
If you look at the census % of people who ride a bike to work this should be obvious
The census data defines Toronto as a much, much larger area than anyone might reasonably come up with on their own. Like, all the way up to Lake Simcoe large. This poll is about the city of Toronto, not the GTA, the GTHA or East Gwillimbury.
Most people do not have a strong opinion for or against bike lanes... That is why we end up with Rob Ford as mayor
A whole bunch of people who felt very strongly opposed to bike lanes and other downtown-type issues voted Ford into office.
salsa
Senior Member
Anyone who has spent considerable time on the transportation forums should know by now that andrewpmk is wrong on so many things but will still keep repeating the same falsehoods over and over again no matter what the facts are. Stop wasting your time responding to him. Use the ignore list.
ADRM
Senior Member
Very disappointing result at the PWIC hearing today, especially from Chair Jaye Robinson. She amended staff's suggested $16 million option to shelve any major corridor projects (including Yonge St.) not currently underway. Even the $25 million option being considered would have still left us woefully under-supplied with adequate safe cycling infrastructure in the pipeline. Big disappointment.
Zach6668
Active Member
It's insanity.
I'm unclear on how this all works though.
Conceivably, could a councillor put forward a motion during the debates at general council that basically undoes this amendment? It would have a lot easier time passing there than the suburban-loaded PWIC. Is that a thing that's possible?
ADRM
Senior Member
That's my understanding, yes (though someone who knows more could possibly refute that)—Council is free to do what it pleases with PWIC recommendations, though some recommendations don't have to appear before Council to meet approval (there were a number of motions carried in addition to the "main" one concerning recommending Robinson's amended/pared down $16 million plan).
I think the more concerning thing as it pertains to the broader cycle infrastructure debate as it will come before Council, having watched the hearing, is the creeping over-reliance on the outcome of the Bloor bike lane pilot. For those who missed, Robinson essentially said "let's delay all corridor projects not currently underway" pending the outcome of the Bloor pilot." It's worthwhile to take the ultimate success or failure of that project into account when considering similar pilots elsewhere, but every circumstance is different enough that each should be assessed on its own merits.
I think the more concerning thing as it pertains to the broader cycle infrastructure debate as it will come before Council, having watched the hearing, is the creeping over-reliance on the outcome of the Bloor bike lane pilot. For those who missed, Robinson essentially said "let's delay all corridor projects not currently underway" pending the outcome of the Bloor pilot." It's worthwhile to take the ultimate success or failure of that project into account when considering similar pilots elsewhere, but every circumstance is different enough that each should be assessed on its own merits.
Zach6668
Active Member
The delay is entirely unacceptable. It's a constant in this city, so I've found, just kicking the can down the road, study, study, study, wait, study again, try to find results that align with the regressive suburban ideology, and if not, study some more.
However, the good news is that the Bloor pilot will in all likelihood be a smashing success. I imagine a scenario where business improves, volume of people through the corridor improves, and automotive travel times stay the same... this leads to every BIA clamouring to be next in line for the bike lanes... some already are, but as we saw with the Bloor debates, having all of the BIAs, residents' associations, local councillors, etc on board doesn't mean anything to those self-serving pols who love to ignore data and fact.
ADRM
Senior Member
Yes to all of that. One of the best things we can all do is to visit our councillors (especially if they're likely fence sitters or nays at present) and tell him or her that approving the $25 million plan with all major corridors reinstated at the very least is what you expect of them and that you'll remember their position on improving the state of a major public health issue in the city come election time.
I intend on paying a visit to Stephen Holyday's office to explain to his face how I feel about his 1950 way of thinking.
I intend on paying a visit to Stephen Holyday's office to explain to his face how I feel about his 1950 way of thinking.
andrewpmk
Senior Member
The 2011 National Household Survey and the Transportation Tomorrow Survey provide data on what percentage of trips are by car, transit, foot and bike. Both of those clearly show that only a tiny percentage of trips are by bike (although it is much higher in the downtown core).
The Angus Reid Forum survey results do not make sense and the sample is obviously not at all representive of the population of Toronto. No amount of weighting will correct for that.
When the 2016 Census comes out we will have a much better idea of how many people ride bikes since the 2016 long form census is mandatory.
The Angus Reid Forum survey results do not make sense and the sample is obviously not at all representive of the population of Toronto. No amount of weighting will correct for that.
When the 2016 Census comes out we will have a much better idea of how many people ride bikes since the 2016 long form census is mandatory.
the lemur
Senior Member
Again, the CMA definition of Toronto distorts the definition of Toronto in relation to surveys done of the actual Toronto metropolis. And the census asks only about commutes; not every trip is a commute. How many people take transit to work but drive the rest of the time?
innsertnamehere
Superstar
Yes, committee votes rarely matter for larger votes like this. It'll go to council and get amended again there. I wouldn't put too much thought into today's vote, wait until it gets to council. PWIC is dominated by suburban councillors, things always get changed up once they go to council.