I had a little time today to digest ML's 2017-2018 Business Plan which was tabled at the ML Board meeting. It gave some interesting insights into what ML is actually working on and what we can expect to see happen over the next year.
The plan identifies a $5.1B capital plan for the current fiscal year, which certainly speaks to a huge volume of transit projects being advanced.
How this breaks down is interesting.
- $1.9B goes towards Rapid Transit projects which are all known and notorious at this point (Crosstown, Finch, VIVA, Hurontario, plus small amounts for Sheppard LRT and Hamilton LRT)
- $0.8B goes towards State of Good Repair work - which is money well spent, but doesn’t lead to new services
- $0.2B to Presto - apparently this black hole may actually be filled some day.
That leaves $1.2B for RER projects, and $1.0B for something called “Optimization and Expansion”.
The $1.2B for RER goes into some familiar projects: Stouffville and Barrie rail construction, adding a fourth track on a short segment of the Kitchener line, redevelopment of existing stations, various signalling projects, and the 401/409 Rail Tunnel on the Kitchener line.
Most of this work is already in progress. The Rail Tunnel has yet to be procured, but will reach financial close later this year (which presumably means shovels in the ground in 2018). If anyone was expecting progress on some other front, check your sources - this is all that is mentioned as being under way.
The O+E funding includes the Whitby Maintenance facility ($172M) and some very small numbers for Niagara, Bowmanville, Kitchener, UPE, and GTS. ($54M total). That last dollar value is telling considering all the Ministerial showmanship on these projects.
In 2017, less than 1% of ML's capital budget will be spent towards GO service to Niagara, Bowmanville, and Kitchener combined. The supporting text indicates it’s pretty much all design and EA work.
For Niagara and Bowmanville, this year’s work is mainly modelling and “gap analysis” to determine if more studies or additional EA work is required before design can begin - diligence, but nevertheless only studies of studies, and not advancement towards service. In both cases, the primary contractor will be CN and CP respectively - clearly the railways are intent on controlling the work on their own properties themselves, through a traditional work-and-invoice process rather than through an AFP model. The writeup notes that discussions with CP over Bowmanville service are at “an early stage" - I suspect that comment was intended to set low expectations for rapid progress. Remember that the Auditor-General had criticisms of how the railways account for and invoice for this kind of project. CN and CP are in the drivers’ seat at the negotiating table in both cases.
For the Kitchener route, the key goal for 2017 appears to be reaching a deal with CN on the bypass. The Plan describes the deal as a clear deliverable for 2017, but again CN has the upper hand. After that, lots of studies are then still required, so again service improvements to Kitchener are a long way off.
The remainder of the O+E fund - $778M - was not broken down. The writeup mentions Train Control and Signal system improvements, the Hamilton area construction and extension to Confederation Station, Don Yard expansion, parking and station improvements. And - bus and rail car acquisition. How that sum is spread across those projects is not itemised. What actually gets worked on and to what timeline remains to be seen.
Lastly, electrification is placed in the third and final work package of RER planning. This year’s work is to prepare initial drafts of the technical contract schedules and specification needed for the procurement process….but procurement is a future year’s task.
Bottom line: as I said above, other than the known and notorious work we have already seen under way, don’t expect shovels in the ground anywhere new this year. The next 12 months are all that’s left for Wynne to get contracts signed before the next election. Clearly, lots of studies will get done, but spending decisions by the next government may not carry them forward. There won’t be much sidewalk supervising to do this year.
- Paul