[Allandale25]

Here's the reason to be worried about RER. It is not Doug, it is the dynamics of the capital spend at this point in time.

- Paul

Thanks for the reminder of the chart, Paul. Just as a quick question, is it confirmed that Metrolinx is following the highest spending level shown ("Incremental Capex"). Is it documented anywhere on how this chart from the RER BCA links to the budget we see at each Metrolinx Board meeting in their Capital Group report? I realize it might be hard to tell either way. Latest one is here on page 2: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/board_agenda/20180308/20180308_BoardMtg_CP_Quarterly_EN.pdf

 

[crs1026]

Thanks for the reminder of the chart, Paul. Just as a quick question, is it confirmed that Metrolinx is following the highest spending level shown ("Incremental Capex"). Is it documented anywhere on how this chart from the RER BCA links to the budget we see at each Metrolinx Board meeting in their Capital Group report? I realize it might be hard to tell either way. Latest one is here on page 2: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/board_agenda/20180308/20180308_BoardMtg_CP_Quarterly_EN.pdf

I believe the Incremental scenario is the one which the BCA recommended and is the one that is being pursued.

Try as I might I can't find evidence that ML's Board actually approved the document. It kind of slid into public view in early 2016 (the usual ML lack of transparency). The BCA is mentioned in a report to the Board at its March 2016 meeting; the same report states that in 2015 the Province approved funding of $13.5B which matches the Incremental Scenario's stated cost. The $13.5B appears in the 2016 Ontario budget. I guess that locks it in as the official project plan.

Fine detail: The incremental scenario is kind of Scenario 3.5 of their four scenarios. Scenario 3 was

Scenario 3 is the 10-Year Plan, i.e. the service and infrastructure that could be provided by 2024 within a $12 billion budget. GO would operate all-day services every 15 minutes to Aldershot, Mt. Pleasant, Aurora, Unionville and Oshawa. Faster electric trains would replace diesels on the Lakeshore corridor between Oshawa and Aldershot. Other routes would continue to use diesels with peak-only services. Metrolinx can deliver this program by 2024 within a $12 billion capital budget.

and the incremental scenario was

Scenario 5 is the 10-Year Plan Optimized, it represents significant progress towards implementing the service levels of Scenario 4. It goes beyond the investments and service included in Scenario 3 (10-Year Plan), with electrification also to Bramalea, Barrie, Stouffville and to Pearson Airport. This scenario and the resulting recommended RER program has been defined to maximize return on investment while mitigating risks. Depending on resolving various challenges, it can be delivered over 10 years for approximately $13.5 billion. It does not preclude, but rather prepares for, services to Milton and Kitchener to be eventually electrified and frequent all-day services introduced when agreement is reached on co-existence of GO and freight on these privately-owned corridors.

The incremental scenario is less than Scenario 4, which included Richmond Hill and Milton, which would have raised the cost to $19B.

Source - (Page iv) - RER BCA Document

It's frustrating how ML does not cross reference the spend by line by year in its capital reports, let alone link that to service level improvements. That generic "we will add service gradually to 2025" is just too vague.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

^ Thanks for the analysis Paul. Maybe it could be considered 3.5.1 with the "1" being the Bypass for the Kitchener Line because that seems to have to come to light - and been referred to for the first time - in the June 2017 Capital Group Report. It now has a budget figure and a few more details but it wasn't explicit in the BCA unless I missed it. Corrections as always are welcome.

 

[crs1026]

^I believe Bowmanville and Niagara are also additions after the BCA was issued. So we are up to 3.5.3 ;-)

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

^ Right, I forgot about those two. Fully agree! Let's call it 3.5.3!

 

[crs1026]

If it matters - Here is the original announcement of what the $13.5B covers. CTV reported the exact number on the day of the announcement.

With that commitment, ML had their marching orders.

- Paul

 

[rbt]

To date, there have been 0 mentions from the Ford camp on transit.

I disagree. There was an entire city budget written and passed by the Ford's while they had the full support of council. That was a very strong statement by the Ford camp on transit. Recall, the city was running a surplus at that time too, unlike the province now.

You can choose to believe Doug has become a changed man over the last 7 years if you like.

It's very obviously my opinion but it's an opinion based on Doug's actual actions while in office; not his words which were often out of sync with his actions.

Finally, him not mentioning transit isn't a good sign. They've mentioned health care, taxes, jobs/economic growth, among other things. Silence is not a sign they have a strong interest in that file; particularly when economic stagnation in Ontario is in large part caused by poor transportation options.

 

[Allandale25]

For Milton, some track work for the 2nd track being put back in (picture below). Also, from the last Board meeting, I wonder when this report will become public: "The Milton Corridor Capacity Study was completed and the final draft of the report is underway, following an extension to include scenario and potential impact of express trains"

A few more pictures:

 

[SaugeenJunction]

A few more pictures:

Great pictures, thanks! Quick question: How far south will this track go?

 

[Allandale25]

^ I assume all the way to the Union Station Rail Corridor West and then be integrated with the Lakeshore tracks that meet the Kitchener/Barrie Line tracks here at Fort York. I think that's how it worked before it was removed during the Georgetown South Project.

 

[crs1026]

^ I haven't seen any drawings, but from the tender descriptions I'm dubious that it's going any further south than right there at Wallace. That switch will allow trains to take either of two routes through the West Toronto interlocking to Keele Street. But for now the Milton route will remain single track down to Strachan.

Note the two as yet unused block signals on the overhead bridge. They don't match the new work. The crossover here is likely "temporary".

Why bother? It gives much more flexibility in routing west of here over to Kipling. CP may have required that in return for added service. And - it also provides a meeting place for GO trains should CP allow some form of equipment turnback or counterpeak service. I'm hoping (with no documentation to support it) that this may open up some opportunity for further service improvements.

PS: the "old" two-track arrangement had 30mph turnout/ curves at Dupont/West Toronto. The second routing being reinstalled will be 45 mph. So it's an upgrade to the "old" stuff.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

^ Good point Paul re how far south this is going. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Double tracking for the Milton line was envisioned to extend through the Strachan trench, and then before the USRC interlocking with Lakeshore West, both tracks would merge into the southernmost track for Kitchener/UPX. But that was back a few years ago now, don't know if that has changed.

 

[smallspy]

Double tracking for the Milton line was envisioned to extend through the Strachan trench, and then before the USRC interlocking with Lakeshore West, both tracks would merge into the southernmost track for Kitchener/UPX. But that was back a few years ago now, don't know if that has changed.

That's the ultimate design, and it still stands. But there seems to be some earthworks further south of Wallace that would need to be done before the track could be extended.

As Paul noted, this is likely just an interim option.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[raptor]

That's the ultimate design, and it still stands. But there seems to be some earthworks further south of Wallace that would need to be done before the track could be extended.

As Paul noted, this is likely just an interim option.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

See Notice:

Work began in November to reinstate the second span of track on the Milton corridor between Keele Street and Bloor Station. During construction of the West Toronto Diamond grade separation, this span of track was temporarily decommissioned, as trains could not safely operate so close to the work site. With construction in this area completed, the second track can now be reinstated.