jje1000
Senior Member
So what's next? I suppose the next major thing to look forward to is either more Metrolinx board meetings, or the release of the RFPs for electrification per line?
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- Thread starter drum118
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muller877
Senior Member
John Bisan
New Member
it's not per line, it's one RFP for everything
rbt
Senior Member
Yep. If the track was in place with a commitment by the province to maintain the track, stations, communications, and trains (all things that apply to both types of equipment); private industry would pay quite a bit for a 30 year term to collect fares (todays level + annual inflation increases) and operate GO service; contingent on electrification being allowed.
Then ignore Metrolinx and read German, French, British, Chinese, Spanish, Italian, or even Indian reports on diesel to electrification conversions already performed for routes with frequent service.
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crs1026
Superstar
That’s the thing about this master RFP - it’s so all inclusive
ML seems to confirm this by picking out pieces and doing things piecemeal - eg the Davenport Diamond. That is likely intended to reduce the overall risk profile of the RFP and to firewall vendors from political controversies that would scare them off.
My fear is that this RFP takes the same course as when IO put out bids for nuclear reactors a decade or so ago.... it seemed like a great plan, until the bids came in and were waaay over what anyone anticipated. Suddenly the whole idea seemed unwise. We could see this repeat itself if too many big variables are thrown into the mix. I would be a lot happier if ML did all the building - perhaps using P3’s for discrete items - and then bid out the operation and maintenance of the entire (built) system.
- Paul
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steveintoronto
Superstar
I can't say I'm at all surprised. The writing has been on the wall for some time, even beyond DBFOM, Verster has been saying (gist)"It's up to the winning bidder" as to method of propulsion, rolling stock type, etc.
I think progress is going to be had by something far beyond an RFP as to 'running the GO operation'. It's going to be 'GO's terms of lease on the system provided by a private entity'.
Is this a drastic change for Ontario? In this century, yes. But for many other nations (Australia immediately comes to mind) Private Provision is the norm, albeit with government being part of it for a number of reasons, easier regulatory approval and cost of borrowing being a few.
I think projects will be built, but the Cons have yet to fully come clean on how. They're very clear hints, and I suspect they're waiting to be approached with offers before blabbing out the truth. I think REM in Montreal is the template. Crosstown is an uneasy hybrid of the model, a learning experience.
I don't like it, I think government should be doing this, but that's beside the point. Private is the way forward at this time, and frankly, I'd rather beady eyed private investors than moronic mental cases running it. It will keep the politics out of it.
A model where that's proven is in the airline industry in many nations. National carriers are long gone in almost all cases. And any losses for misunderstanding the market are absorbed by the investors, not the taxpayers.
Added comment: In all fairness, this 'shift in provision' started under the Wynne regime. Make no mistake, I think Ford et al are bumbling idiots, and that's being kind, but the trend almost everywhere is back to private. In Ontario's case, the tax base is so low as to force that being the case.
Joe Average pays one way or the other...
Addendum: Just realized the Globe piece is 'Subscriber Only' so here's the crux:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...rden-is-among-the-lowest-in-oecd-report-says/
And Toronto has one of the lowest urban tax rates in Ontario! Something has to give...
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KevinR
New Member
I think Verster, and the reports, have been clear that the propulsion method used for the electrified parts of the network is up to the bidder but he has also said that electrification is required and that he doesn't care if it's a catenary system or hydrogen system. I don't think he's ever said that the current RFP allows for an all diesel network.
crs1026
Superstar
But if a bidder gave a lower price, predicated on Tier 4 diesel, would that bid prevail?
Electrification is critical in the GO application primarily for its accel/deccel attributes. So I suspect all bidders will have to embrace it. But we can't be certain.
Not having read the RFP documents, I really can't say for sure, but I wonder....
- Paul
ssiguy2
Senior Member
If the private sector is involved now with not only operations but also potentially infrastructure costs, I don't think there is much doubt it will be hydrogen. The private company is going to be looking at the system that not only is viable operationally but also the amount of immediate infrastructure needed to build it which saves them money on interest.
Hydrogen's main selling point for non-electrified lines is that it requires far less infrastructure and can get up and running faster.................less money up front and revenue begins sooner. Hydrogen also has the benefit of lower risk for on-going operational costs in terms of repairs and replacements of catenary wires/infrastructure due to weather. An ice storm could cost a private operations company a fortune in repairs and lost revenue due to the system being brought down while hydrogen {like diesel} do not suffer from these disadvantages.
Hydrogen's main selling point for non-electrified lines is that it requires far less infrastructure and can get up and running faster.................less money up front and revenue begins sooner. Hydrogen also has the benefit of lower risk for on-going operational costs in terms of repairs and replacements of catenary wires/infrastructure due to weather. An ice storm could cost a private operations company a fortune in repairs and lost revenue due to the system being brought down while hydrogen {like diesel} do not suffer from these disadvantages.
steveintoronto
Superstar
It might be time to go over the Verster quotes. I think he's even contradicted his own statements from when the UT interviewed him twice now, and statements he's made elsewhere, let alone Metrolinx official dogma and docs, and then the present Ministers of Transport.. As time goes on, whatever Verster is on record as stating is losing credibility. Things get more nebulous rather than focused.
Again, it might be time to quote and reference him exactly...on a number of occasions, as this seems to be slipping from the grasp of fact.
Let's flip over the scenario for a moment, and a nod to what crs1026 states: An entity bids on a certain line, the whole shebang, save for track and other infrastructure, and decide *for that line* to electrify the route alone as part of their operation. What implications, if any, does that have for other bids on other routes within the Metrolinx system?
I suspect this will come up: Rather than electrification being a separate project alone, and being 'part of the Metrolinx track ownership'...what would Metrolinx do if they received an offer (Invitation issued or not) to run a segment of the system and to electrify just that one segment? I see this as being a distinct possibility. Think REM and their 'acquisition' of AMT assets.
"So I suspect all bidders will have to embrace it. But we can't be certain." Or embrace it 'piecemeal'....
dowlingm
Senior Member
It is hilarious to offer FUD about electric overhead’s resilience to weather (a technology into its second century), but propose as a quick option the rapid stand up of production and fuelling infrastructure sufficient to power one of the largest commuter rail systems in North America using technology currently bumbling around Europe in a few single deck regional trainsets
TransitBart
Senior Member
But I agree with the sentiment 100%
hw621
Senior Member
Pardon my ignorance, but is the Barrie Line double tracked?
smallspy
Senior Member
robmausser
Senior Member
Vert little of it, only segments, and more is currently being built.
There was a nifty map someone made of what portions are double tracked, whats currently under construction etc.