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The thing to remember about these far off deadlines is that Metrolinx is a government agency.

Everything can change if a new Premier/ political party wins the next election.

Metrolinx's 15 year vision could completely change.
It's easier to delay things than to accelerate them.

It boggles the mind that from inception to delivering the first electrified service will take over 20 years. Insane. I can see why Metrolinx is doing everything they can to not admit to this publicly.

Props to the source that leaked this to the Trillium. Would not be surprised if they read this forum.
 
An electrification plan that targets 2036, 10 years away, is not really a plan at all. The planning horizon for some of the most complex things is 7-8 years including hosting an Olympics with new venues and transit line... beyond that it is not a plan at all, it is a postponement of a plan. This is existing rail corridors!!
 
It's easier to delay things than to accelerate them.

It boggles the mind that from inception to delivering the first electrified service will take over 20 years. Insane. I can see why Metrolinx is doing everything they can to not admit to this publicly.

Props to the source that leaked this to the Trillium. Would not be surprised if they read this forum.
But nothing is gonna change...
 
The delay to the UPX blows my mind the most. It's the shortest stretch of track, with the most defective trains, and doesn't have the apparent issue of the union train shed. I suppose wherever maintenance takes place could present a problem, but it seems like the easiest project for electrification.
The first plan was to have UPX operated out of the Whitby yard as it was ready to be electrify since it was built for it in the first place. The LSE would had to be electrify as well along with the line to the airport. Then an yard for the UPX equipment was to be built east of Islington Ave when the headhouse issue surface.

ML case against the headhouse shows they fail to understand its not an issue if they look at various cities and systems where the pan is about 95% down running in tunnels and low areas.

ML can only run 3-5 EMU cars as a set and only 3 EBMU car as I have yet to hear or see a 5 car set. Since sets are arrange as 3-5 EMU cars, You would need 2 5 car set plus a 3 car set to get a 12 car train considering the platform will not support all 13 cars. then you can do 4 3 car sets that reduce the ability to walk from one set to another.
 
I've been saying this for years now, honestly Metrolinx just needs to be disbanded.

They are a useless organization that essentially cant do a single thing properly. Of course it doesnt help that successive governments are consistently interfering, but even without that fact they are just completely useless.

They cant write contracts properly, they cant manage and order fleets properly, they cant project manage, they cant ensure financial accountability, they couldnt figure out transit-oriented developments, etc..

Just a completely useless, garbage organization.
 
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The thing to remember about these far off deadlines is that Metrolinx is a government agency.

Everything can change if a new Premier/ political party wins the next election.

Metrolinx's 15 year vision could completely change.
So instead of the Conservatives, we could get the Liberals back, who thought up the scheme in the first place, and who were even more effective at delaying announced projects. And the NDP whose track record is cancelling rapid transit and GO service in favour of more local solutions.

A change of government doesn't improve things, and historically things later.

I've been saying this for years now, honestly Metrolinx just needs to be disbanded.

They are a useless organization that essentially cant do a single thing properly.
Metrolinx service reliability has light years ahead of TTC. Their current maintenance issue will pass; and I bet afterward, Metrolinx service reliability will still be light years ahead.

So they do one thing properly; perhaps the most important thing. Even if they suck ass in so many ways.
 
So instead of the Conservatives, we could get the Liberals back, who thought up the scheme in the first place, and who were even more effective at delaying announced projects. And the NDP whose track record is cancelling rapid transit and GO service in favour of more local solutions.

A change of government doesn't improve things, and historically things later.
That was pretty much the point I was making.

It doesn't mean anything when government agency claims they're going to do something in 10 years when, at a minimum, there will be two elections cycles that could result in a new government being elected and the 10 year plan/ vision being completely usurped (is that the right word?).
 
2036, that means 2041 the earliest...

I want to point out that 2036 is not news at all to those who remember this exposé article from last June:

And myself, I doubt 2036 will happen for regular service, because trains need to travel through USRC, which may only be electrified by 2038 or later. From the article I linked:

1773826243108.png
 
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I've been saying this for years now, honestly Metrolinx just needs to be disbanded.

They are a useless organization that essentially cant do a single thing properly. Of course it doesnt help that successive governments are consistently interfering, but even without that fact they are just completely useless.

They cant write contracts properly, they cant manage and order fleets properly, they cant project manage, they cant ensure financial accountability, they couldnt figure out transit-oriented developments, etc..

Just a completely useless, garbage organization.
I'm increasingly inclined to agree, though I'm not sure where that would leave us for actually getting these projects done.

It's really a shame just how much of a failure Metrolinx has turned out to be. Incredibly disappointing. It seems like a decade in, they still don't entirely know what they're building. If they're saying 2036, we'll be lucky to get it by 2051, if at all.
 
I'm increasingly inclined to agree, though I'm not sure where that would leave us for actually getting these projects done.

It's really a shame just how much of a failure Metrolinx has turned out to be. Incredibly disappointing. It seems like a decade in, they still don't entirely know what they're building. If they're saying 2036, we'll be lucky to get it by 2051, if at all.

I would question whether electrification is actually a test of ML or Ontario failing to get something done that was previously promised. It's a good idea, certainly. I agree with the comment that some people who interpreted small steps and strategic futureproofing as signs that it was about to happen were deluding themselves.

The GO RER proposal of 2014 effectively wiped the slate clean on GO's plans. Electrification was always a proposal before that, but only at a a "could do, one day" level. One can argue that it was a good idea all along, but that's coulda, woulda, shoulda thinking that doesn't reflect what government was actually thinking.

What did emerge was an EA that produced a credible and thorough listing of everything that needed to be done to prepare for électrification. Again, nobody ever moved that plan to execution. It remained "could do, one day".

What changed with RER/Expansion is that a plan emerged with electrification as an integral element, included in the notional work flow and cash flow. Of note, even there, government's reaction was "do we really have to do this?". Proof of that is Del Duca's 2017ish flirtation with hydrogen, and the accompanying postulation that we might not need to string wires at all. That's a pretty only-one-toe-in-the-water approach.

A lot of posters seem to be electrification junkies who think it can just happen on its own without integration into GO-RER/Expansion. Not so. It would be reckless and wasteful to start stringing wires now before the track and right of way infrastructure has been put in place. Sorry, electrification has only ever been Step 17 of RER/Expansion, never the front burner priority.

I do fault Ontario and ML for failing to deliver on the RER/Expansion business case. That entire project was first said to be complete by 2024...then 2025....then 2026....and now we are in the 2030's. Two successive governments ought to answer for why it isn't happening.

I have not followed electrification to see if ML is still following the original EA. I fear that when the time comes there will be EA addendums because of more recent changes in RER/Expansion scope, and/or because ML can't resist rethinking the design, (as it has done far too often).

The fact is, electrification was just never top of the list. And it remains a "when the time is right" proposition. Sorry, it was probably a good idea all along, but has never had a commitment to action. If anyone thought it was happening, well, that's on them.

- Paul
 
Metrolinx service reliability has light years ahead of TTC. Their current maintenance issue will pass; and I bet afterward, Metrolinx service reliability will still be light years ahead.

So they do one thing properly; perhaps the most important thing. Even if they suck ass in so many ways.
Respectfully, I think that this is an oversimplification, as someone who uses both GO (train and bus) and TTC 5 days a week. Since September, I've only been affected by TTC outages twice; but GO delays are so regular that I always feel an undercurrent of anxiety when I embark on a journey, not knowing if I will make it to the end or if a catastrophic infrastructure failure is going to leave me stranded somewhere.

Yes, ML tends to run according to schedule more often, helped no doubt by the fact that they pad their schedules. But the maintenance issues aren't an external problem, they were brought along by their own stupidity. And it's not just their trains, this winter there's been the daily threat of bus cancellations hanging over our heads too, because the double deckers are unreliable and the MCIs are really starting to show their age. This problem might possibly be dealt with at an unknown time in the future, though only after much more commuter nightmares, but unless they get rid of the morons who brought about this problem in the first place, there is every risk of further such difficulties cropping up at another time. And their service planning is woefully inadequate too. Last fall, the Union-bound 21s were leaving scores of people behind at the stops in Mississauga, because, despite RTO mandates, no one thought that maybe the same level of service they were running during WFH was possibly not adequate (that problem, as far as I can tell, has only gone away because they finally switched most runs on the 21 to double deckers, something they couldn't figure out throughout the fall semester). And don't get me started on routes like the 22 which run every TWO hours! If your bus is cancelled (and this has happened), you'll be left waiting 4 hours for the next one, or paying out the ass for an Uber.

Yes, the TTC has loads of issues, but they run so much service it is exceedingly rare for a GO transit style catastrophe (being stranded in the middle of nowhere with no alternative options) to occur. If you run such a barebones service as GO does, it is essential that you have 110% reliability. Cancellations cannot occur, under any circumstances. If a TTC vehicle has to be taken off the line for a breakdown, in the worst case scenario another one will be along within 20 minutes, and if the headway is followed much less than that. No such thing with GO, if your train or bus is cancelled, if you are not on the Lakeshore corridor there is a very, very good chance your whole day is about to be ruined.

Some people will say, "oh, leave your house earlier", but since the 21 runs every hour after noon, what that suggestion essentially boils down to is "leave your house earlier and waste even more of your life away from your friends and family because Metrolinx are too stupid to run a competent service". Heaven forbid we should expect buses and trains to run according to the posted schedule!

At least stop charging fares for people living outside of the Lakeshore corridor. A one way journey into town costs me $12, but for this exorbitant fare structure, we've seen no improvements whatsoever, only things getting progressively worse since COVID initially broke out. Criminal scum. If I could move and rely on solely the TTC instead every day, I would do so in a heartbeat.
 
I would question whether electrification is actually a test of ML or Ontario failing to get something done that was previously promised. It's a good idea, certainly. I agree with the comment that some people who interpreted small steps and strategic futureproofing as signs that it was about to happen were deluding themselves.
Congestion in the GTA is at crisis levels, and this dithering approach to regional transit improvement is basically negligent.
 
Respectfully, I think that this is an oversimplification, as someone who uses both GO (train and bus) and TTC 5 days a week. Since September, I've only been affected by TTC outages twice;
Day after day I wait 30 minutes for a streetcar, to meet a GO Train that's relatively on-time, and on a 15-minute spacing (well 30 minutes at more times of the day for the winter).

I just don't understand how you see buses and streetcars that only have been affected twice in 6 months.
 
Day after day I wait 30 minutes for a streetcar, to meet a GO Train that's relatively on-time, and on a 15-minute spacing (well 30 minutes at more times of the day for the winter).

I just don't understand how you see buses and streetcars that only have been affected twice in 6 months.
These days, I seldom use surface transit. It's usually the subway, and it's infinitely more dependable than any GO service ... to say nothing of having alternative options in the event of a shutdown.

However, even in the days when surface transit I used more often, 30 minute gaps seldom occurred. There were gaps, but not quite that extreme. Not that it excuses them, but if I had to choose between two poor choices I'd sooner take the assurance that I might still be able to get home over a service that ostensibly runs on schedule, but leaves you absolutely, totally, up shit Creek without a paddle if it gets cancelled.
 
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