Richard White
Senior Member
I thought as much but given everything and the fact there has been no announcement of them.. I figured I would ask.
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- Thread starter drum118
- Start date
I thought as much but given everything and the fact there has been no announcement of them.. I figured I would ask.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
given the lifting of restrictions coming soon, I would be surprised if they aren't. I imagine we will start to see a slow restoration of GO service starting in July or August and going into the fall as the pandemic wanes.
anb
Active Member
I promise you this, GO service will completely explode during the summer. I took one of the 407 GO buses that were rarely ever busy today, and there were actual people filling the upper level on the double decker buses. I imagine this is because of people going out more due to massive free time, and the vaccine rate picking up at a fast pace so people aren’t hesitant to take transit as they were. We probably would see a ridiculous increase in ridership to/from Niagara that bringing back both the GO train and the 12B express bus would be the most effective way to control the traffic and population on these modes of transit. There’s also the province reopening during the summer to account for this as well.
Allandale25
Senior Member
From a ULI webinar.
sacred
Active Member
Does anyone have context on what Verster was saying? Did he mean post-pandemic levels will never return or that post-RER, trains won’t need to be that long due to frequency
Northern Light
Superstar
I think more the latter.
Verster has previously made comments like this, suggesting that more frequent and all-day service will alleviate the need for or utility of L10s and L12s.
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In the short-term, I think that's probably correct, as you will see pre-pandemic service levels restored and expanded, likely by September, with further expansion in the years ahead.
If you go to 15-minute service from 30, creating 100% more capacity, then certainly its hard to imagine the need for the full-sized trains outside of the peak periods.
In the peak period, the question is one of how much increase in service can really be delivered.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
pandemic service restorations will depend a lot on how fast ridership rebounds. I expect we will start seeing gains again starting in June, accelerating in July and August, but I would be surprised if we return to pre-pandemic ridership patterns by EOY. Students returning to classes in September should help a lot.. but ridership will likely take at least another year to fully recover.
It'll be interesting to see how GO's expansion will handle the reduced ridership over that period as they want to be aggressively expanding services right now but the pandemic has been limiting that. It'll be interesting to see where schedules go over the next 12 months.
It'll be interesting to see how GO's expansion will handle the reduced ridership over that period as they want to be aggressively expanding services right now but the pandemic has been limiting that. It'll be interesting to see where schedules go over the next 12 months.
ARG1
Senior Member
To add on to what @Northern Light is saying, I think when he "says future", he means 2025-2028, or whenever GO Expansion boots back up - not immediately after the pandemic. As an example, the Davenport Diamond project is planned to be finished in 2023, and double tracking and station expansions with the exception of Rutherford have yet to begin. In other words, until 2023 there isn't a chance that Barrie won't have 12 car trains running at some point, unless something disastrous happens like... I would give an example but I'd probably jinx it so you can use your imagination
Allandale25
Senior Member
EnviroTO
Senior Member
Transit volumes may have some peak demands later this year if concerts and sporting events return, but most offices will not return to being fully open until 2022 and even if they are open, there will have been a shift in the number of people able to work from home that will choose to continue to work from home. That said, the city is still growing... so at some point things should return to pre-pandemic levels.
anb
Active Member
^ We will most likely see the most changes happen in September, which is basically the new year for transit as a whole in the GTHA. The upcoming service update (which I believe is on June 27/28), will set the tone for the whole summer, and if we get more frequent service overall then there's no doubt that at the end of the season is when we'll see at least 70-80% of the transit restored. There's also factors such as the province reopening plan, and most of the population getting vaccinated as well.
Jonny5
Senior Member
I'm somewhat involved in the "Future of Work" planning for the office where I work which is a large global financial institution. For the past few months, every big firm that has space in the downtown center towers has been waiting to see what everyone else is going to do first before making an announcement. No one wants to be the first mover. However, a growing consensus is emerging that there will be only modest changes. I would expect at minimum 85% will be back at work as they were, with no more than a small allowance for working from home on an occasionally booked basis. Some firms already had this before, though only once a month or so and it may become three or four times a month. The other 15% will be working from home on a more regular basis, or move out to new and/or expanded satellite offices in the outer suburbs. Probably 5% or less will work from home a majority of the time. There seems to be near zero appetite for this in the financial and legal industry, and over in the tech businesses which had trumpeted forever working from home, we now hear they are quietly walking that back internally to a point they might wind up with 80% staffing in offices regularly too.
There would be a modest drop in downtown workers from this, but space consolidation will happen quickly, and that new vacant space will be immediately back-filled from offices moving into the core from the core-shoulders or other less desirable areas to take advantage of rent incentives from the institutional owners.
Some firms in the past few months projected a 2022 return based on the very slow initial vaccine roll-out, but now they are moving up the return projections to September, given the current quick vaccination pace. Also, many are separating the "return to work" from the "future of work," so they may call everyone back to the office for the same daily grind as before, and only later finalise the plans for a work from home vision that would go into effect next year.
Overall, I expect this time next year to have a slight increase in traffic into downtown compared to February 2020 (assuming that the COVID shut downs are actually over - if not it's a different story).
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Northern Light
Superstar
Very much in line w/what I've been hearing for some time.
I understand from employees at a large Pacific North-West based tech giant.......
That employees 'started' coming back last month, and within a week were 100% (or very close) back in-office.
I gather peer-pressure is a thing, and if 85% were back....no one wanted to be the no-show.
crs1026
Superstar
^I actually sense a pent up demand for people wanting to get back into settings where they see people face to face, after so much isolation and Zoom fatigue.
It may just be a honeymoon, until the added travel, childcare, and clothing costs mount. Then we may see more of a 60-40 spread (or some other combination) of at-home and in-office attendance... enough to stay connected and unified, but leveraging the advantages of not commuting.
What will be interesting is whether the longer term pattern is to spread attendance out over the work week (say, a 60% of past peak every day, Monday to Friday) or align around a common "at home" day. (Replace Casual Fridays with Work at Home Tuesdays and Fridays). That has a major impact on transit as under the former scenario, ridership will not display the same peaks, whereas under the latter there may still be peaks some days but not others.
I suspect the former because employers will be able to leverage real estate economies.... whereas if every worker comes in at once, the peak needs will remain but office occupancy on other days will fall - bad economics.
As noted, the economy is growing, and ridership will grow with that - although I'm not sure that as work changes, the same number of office workers will ever be needed. Verster's remark hints at structural change, moving people all day long for many reasons as opposed to moving people at peak based mainly on employment. Sports events and evening entertainment may become the true peaks in transit, just as in the electricity sector, the traditional January dinner time peaks have been eclipsed by summertime air conditioning demand.
- Paul
It may just be a honeymoon, until the added travel, childcare, and clothing costs mount. Then we may see more of a 60-40 spread (or some other combination) of at-home and in-office attendance... enough to stay connected and unified, but leveraging the advantages of not commuting.
What will be interesting is whether the longer term pattern is to spread attendance out over the work week (say, a 60% of past peak every day, Monday to Friday) or align around a common "at home" day. (Replace Casual Fridays with Work at Home Tuesdays and Fridays). That has a major impact on transit as under the former scenario, ridership will not display the same peaks, whereas under the latter there may still be peaks some days but not others.
I suspect the former because employers will be able to leverage real estate economies.... whereas if every worker comes in at once, the peak needs will remain but office occupancy on other days will fall - bad economics.
As noted, the economy is growing, and ridership will grow with that - although I'm not sure that as work changes, the same number of office workers will ever be needed. Verster's remark hints at structural change, moving people all day long for many reasons as opposed to moving people at peak based mainly on employment. Sports events and evening entertainment may become the true peaks in transit, just as in the electricity sector, the traditional January dinner time peaks have been eclipsed by summertime air conditioning demand.
- Paul
allengeorge
Senior Member
In tech there are a lot more remote-only jobs than prior to the pandemic.
However, in a bit of anecdata, my company is moving to a hybrid model, where there are two fixed days in the week that employees can choose to work remote. This reflects internal preference, where people want the in-person contact as well as flexibility around commutes. I actually think it’s a well-considered middle ground.
However, in a bit of anecdata, my company is moving to a hybrid model, where there are two fixed days in the week that employees can choose to work remote. This reflects internal preference, where people want the in-person contact as well as flexibility around commutes. I actually think it’s a well-considered middle ground.