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They wouldn’t be negotiating with CN per say, but I imagine GEXR would be interesting/involved with the negotiations. I’m sure they’d want to make sure they can still use it when they need to if Metrolinx were to offer to purchase the rest of the Guelph subdivision

The sub reverted to CN to my understanding. GEXR is no longer involved.
 
The sub reverted to CN to my understanding. GEXR is no longer involved.
Regardless, they still use the sub (albeit through CN) to access the wider North American rail network. Making sure they can either use it when need or will still be able to connect with CN via the Stratford junction
 
Regardless, they still use the sub (albeit through CN) to access the wider North American rail network. Making sure they can either use it when need or will still be able to connect with CN via the Stratford junction

Sure, but the object is to purchase the sub from CN, just like they did the track east of K-W; then Mx can set the priority of access in its favour and make room for others thereafter.
 

From these, collectively, I get the following:

The official line, from AMA (Mx Communications) is that this a test (duh?) ; in service of examining options for improving service to south-western Ontario.

Also, no plans finalized.

****

From a journalist, and transit-enthusiast, we hear that perhaps Mx is going to poach all of VIA's spots on the North Mainline and VIA will operate exclusively via the Dundas Sub.

I think that would be a strange and questionable arrangement myself.

I'm not sure if he has any public evidence behind report, but I'm not going to cast any doubt on it w/o evidence either.

He (Ryan) also noted that GO had previously done a test on the Dundas sub.

I don't recall that; but maybe my memory is failing me, or I missed it.

Any footage of that?
 
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The amount of track is a problem. While there are three mainline tracks west of Oakville, there is no pocket track at Burlington, and there are a lot of freight trains that work that stretch of line. Each of those additional trains would have to sit on a mainline for 18 minutes before turning back, which while isn't impossible, is a lot of track track time to devote.

There actually is a pocket track at Burlington on the north side of the station, but it is currently disused and has been disconnected from the mainline. It was used for turnbacks back when Burlington was the western terminus of off-peak service.
Capture1.JPG


^Regardless of timing, it's hard to envision anything other than peak unidirectional express service on top of 15 minute stopping LSW service so long as there are only three tracks. Very tricky to interleave the express onto the two stopping tracks, and the crossing over would slow things down. VIA needs slots on that third track also.

While that end-to-end express service model sounds sexy, I'm not sure it is really optimal. The market for collecting riders heading for Hamilton may be as significant as the market for people wanting to fly from one end point to the other. Over the years, even the "express to Oakville" peak trains had picked up stops eg at Clarkson. With the Hurontario LRT coming on line, I can see the express justifying a stop at Port Credit also, as a major transfer point.

Right of way is quite wide enough for a fourth track Clarkson-Oakville, and that might enable something better than today, I can see the case for local trains only to Oakville with transfer there.

Lastly, the new trackage through Bayview is not high speed. Don't assume trains getting up to speed until east of about Lemonville Road.

- Paul
While the most part of the line is triple-tracked, there is just enough quad-track east of Long Branch to make bidirectional express service practical in addition to 4 tph local service. Since half of the service doesn't continue west of Oakville, there's enough room on the west portion of the line for an eastbound express to operate entirely on the eastbound local track. On the eastern portion, eastbound local trains pull off onto their own line at Mimico, allowing the express to overtake them at Exhibition.

Here's an extremely oversimplified track diagram of the east end of the line:
Capture3.JPG


And a timetable showing how eastbound express service could be overlayed onto 4 tph local service while only using a single track through the triple-tracked segment, leaving the two other tracks totally free for VIA and westbound expresses.
Capture2.JPG


I showed the local service turning back at Burlington (assuming the aforementioned pocket track is reinstated) since this reduces the fleet requirement by 1 train compared to running all the way to Aldershot. That's already a third of the 3 trains required to provide a separate hourly express service to Hamiton (3h round trip / 1h headway = 3 trainsets).
 
How much track work would need to be done for two way service to london?
A lot. Because it makes no sense to run two-way service to London with the current appalling travel times along the Kitchener-London line. With current tracks it would take GO 3h30 to run to London, which would require 8 trainsets to run an hourly service. With an upgraded line, they could run it in 2h30, which would only require 6 trains for an hourly service, and would obviously attract astronomically more ridership.

If they're testing the tracks as they are today, it means they are thinking of running some minimal service on the existing infrastructure. My guess is that VIA has proposed to abandon the service (rerouting the Sarnia service via Brantford) and GO is thinking of extending a couple daily Kitchener line trains to Stratford or maybe London to fill the void.

Here's my guess as to where the sidings would need to be for an hourly service to London, assuming considerably increased speeds.

Green = existing sidings
Purple = proposed/predicted sidings.

Capture1.JPG


We know that the future hourly service to Kitchener will meet at Guelph station, so the sidings will be every 30 minutes travel time west of Guelph. With speeds increased to typical mainline standards, they would need to be somewhere around New Hamburg, and south of St Marys. There are existing sidings between St Marys and London, and at Stratford station, which could serve as a back-up in case a train is significantly late and misses the scheduled meet.
 
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I think that would be a strange and questionable arrangement myself.
I honestly like the arrangement given where we are. It's not necessarily the ideal end-point, but given the state of the corridors as they are... All Via service going south while the marketing of that service emphasizes on Toronto - Brantford -London - points west while the NML is upgrade piecemeal and targets, well, all other traffic, seems like a good way of making meaningful improvements and having the political appearance of being HFR like.

Even long term, for how easy it is to say that the NML should be able to offer roughly equivalent travel times to Dundas, I see a lot of potential in a largely single track network that electrifies the NML for regional service and keeps the longer distance and express service on the southern route with upgrades on par with the pre-HFR lakeshore route.
 
I honestly like the arrangement given where we are. It's not necessarily the ideal end-point, but given the state of the corridors as they are... All Via service going south while the marketing of that service emphasizes on Toronto - Brantford -London - points west while the NML is upgrade piecemeal and targets, well, all other traffic, seems like a good way of making meaningful improvements and having the political appearance of being HFR like.

Even long term, for how easy it is to say that the NML should be able to offer roughly equivalent travel times to Dundas, I see a lot of potential in a largely single track network that electrifies the NML for regional service and keeps the longer distance and express service on the southern route with upgrades on par with the pre-HFR lakeshore route.
What is the length of the Stratford station platform? Can I handle a L6 or L10 GO train?

And by running the train to London gives them to ability to measure the potential speed and to build schedules? I hope they were able to get signal priority from CN for this experiment.

How did they qualify the crew for this? Do they require a CN pilot?
 
Is there any indication that CN is interested in selling?

The fact that it had previously let the line out to GEXR indicates its not of primary or mainline interest, or at least that it wasn't.

They also have an alternative line to the U.S., which they generally treat as their mainline, (Dundas Sub) and on to Sarnia.

I think its reasonable to assume they are open to a sale, given that they also sold the rest of the same line to Mx, excepting where the south mainline in the form of the Halton sub crosses over.

The issue, I suspect, would be one of price, not openess.
 
I honestly like the arrangement given where we are. It's not necessarily the ideal end-point, but given the state of the corridors as they are... All Via service going south while the marketing of that service emphasizes on Toronto - Brantford -London - points west while the NML is upgrade piecemeal and targets, well, all other traffic, seems like a good way of making meaningful improvements and having the political appearance of being HFR like.

Even long term, for how easy it is to say that the NML should be able to offer roughly equivalent travel times to Dundas, I see a lot of potential in a largely single track network that electrifies the NML for regional service and keeps the longer distance and express service on the southern route with upgrades on par with the pre-HFR lakeshore route.

My concerns are that VIA would:

a) No longer service K-W, a major market, impacting the financials for this route.

b) No longer maintain access to the route w/the greatest potential for ridership growth

c) GO has little experience or expertise offering the type of service that I think is necessary for 2hr + journeys.

d) That CN cannot spare the type of capacity VIA should want and need on the Dundas Sub.

This is the antithesis of how Amtrak is growing in the U.S. where it becomes the State-level provider of service for longer journeys; which is where I think VIA should be headed.
 

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