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This is a multi-layered social phenomenon/problem that I'm not sure is GO's to solve alone. Gig economy, people unwilling to brown bag - if the market didn't exist, neither would the problem. Mortgages and rents are high, but has anybody ever been able to live reasonably downtown or even in the burbs on what amounts to minimum wage - ever?
If Lakeshore has so much off-peak ridership that it still needs 10 car double-decker trains even after 15-minute service is restored, then we need to be pushing for service increases beyond just 15-minute local service. Once 15-minute off-peak service is restored, 10-car trains would provide more off-peak capacity than some of the busiest railways in Europe.
There's only two (VIA) stations in that stretch, Georgetown and Brampton. Georgetown is on the south, and Brampton is on the north.
But at Silver the Guelph Sub comes off of the north side, so no matter what you will have crossing movements.
The issue is not with the average ridership per train, it's with the peak loads. With all of the various events going on downtown, off-peak trains are regularly loaded to the gills when the events let out, even to the point where GO regularly runs extras to help absorb some of the peak. That's where the 15 minute service will come in handy (although I certainly wouldn't blame you if you wanted to make a case to only run every second train part of the way, say Oakville to Pickering).
I can tell you our trip to/from Rotterdam in July 2022 saw few riders in our coach.
No indeed Hamilton will not sink into Lake Ontario in the absence of express trains. But connecting three of the largest cities in Ontario (Hamilton, Mississauga and Toronto) within a reasonable amount of time would have a significant effect on the attractiveness of car-free travel in the region. Maybe the reason ridership falls steeply after Oakville is that it takes so long to get to Hamilton that people choose to instead drive or take the GO bus route that exists solely because the train is so slow.
The last time I was at West Harbour station in 2023 about 15 minutes before a train was due, you had a dozen riders waiting for that train that ran hourly. The earliest you could see where an express train could start would be Oakville.
If you ran an hourly train that stopped at West Harbour, Burlington, Oakville, Port Credit, Exhibition, Union, I think it would be well used by anyone that uses those stops. Just look at the time savings that the Niagara train gets with a similar pattern. Getting Hamilton to Union trips closer to an hour will definitely swing more people away from driving and onto the train.
Completely agree on this. Taking the train to West Harbour from Union is great, except that it takes ~80min because most of the trip is spent accelerating and decelerating due to the relatively close spacing of stations the whole way and use of diesels hauling 12 bi-level cars. The train trip can be 20mins longer than taking the bus at some times of the day/week. An express could shave 15-20mins off the trip. That's a pretty substantial time savings! It would make the train a lot more attractive.
