Indeed. I'm not convinced that there are enough people travelling on a daily or regular basis to Toronto justify extending 12-car GO Train service there either, especially if it's going to be slower than the bus+rail connection via Burlington. GO should run more express buses to Burlington, perhaps from the Downtown St. Catharines Terminal, first.
This is currently true
now but may not be true in future.
Also, there is the Niagara Express service concept that is also being talked about: Separate Niagara-Hamilton trains (Smaller), and Hamilton-Toronto trains (GO RER Hamilton), using West Harbour as a potential transfer station.
I wrote a
large article on RaiseTheHammer about getting Niagara Seasonal GO trains to stop at West Harbour GO;
- The $150-$200M fund for Centennial Parkway GO extension (construction begins 2017, completes 2019) will speed up the railroad speed between West Harbour GO and Centennial Parkway GO, as it includes parallel track between the stations.
NOTE: In the media, numbers quoted: The "$1bn" number is LRT-only, and the "$1.2bn" number is the Metrolinx-confirmed combined number for LRT plus the cost of the Centennial Parkway GO extension + station. In addition, previous reports have used the $150M quote for the expansion to Hamilton GO infrastructure which is consistent with these numbers (of which only $35M is the actual station itself; most of the rest is new railroad in Hamilton between West Harbour and Centennial Parkway).
- I was surprised (during a straw poll that I did) saying we have a lot of commuters between Hamilton and Niagara area really wanting GO service
- Theoretically catching the Niagara Seasonal Service at West Harbour GO is actually very competitive (and sometimes faster than) driving
- The Lewis Road GO Layover Facility that is being built, puts an impetus on Metrolinx to improve the LW3 infrastructure over the next decade or two (LW3 refers the section between Aldershot and Grimsby).
- There is talk of a QEW widening. The startup of good regular GO service would relieve this pressure, and possibly eliminate the need for widening the freeway.
- You know....the controversial idea of LINC extension to Niagara Falls (ugh!) There is talk of a mid-pennisula freeway that still crops up from time to time. I'd rather have allday GO to Niagara Falls in less than 25 years. As soon as economic case made sense.
At Niagara Falls I have seen about 700 people board/disembark a single Niagara Seasonal train on a weekend -- if this service continues to grow and new destinations get added on the route (Hamilton would instantly gain all-day 2-way weekend service: Niagara-Hamilton, Hamilton-Niagara, Toronto-Hamilton, Hamilton-Toronto). St. Catharines would be also a destination too for Hamiltonian as well. The 16 seasonal trains per weekend is 8 trains towards Toronto, 8 trains towards Niagara, spaced out every few hours all weekend long from Friday night to Sunday night.
Ultimately, I see much more boardings/disembarks for Niagara Seasonal GO Trains at West Harbour GO than at Oakville GO (after a familiarity ramp-up period). West Harbour GO is just 10-15 minute walking distance of the downtown core and attracts much much bigger pedestrian population than Oakville GO. And West Harbour will have LRT service, while Oakville does not.
This would change the transit math and economic case for St. Catharines.
There is a lot of demand by Hamiltonians to benefit from the mere excitement of gaining all-day 2-way weekend GO train service on the entire Golden Horsehoe Lakeshore. If this is successful in adding a very low-cost enhancement (the low incremental cost move of simply getting the train to stop at West Harbour), there will be gradually increasing demand for eventual weekday commuter service. Let's consider, Downtown Hamilton is destined to get far better rapid transit connections (LRT, allday GO) in the next 10 years than Niagara Falls, and this is, in my opinion, an upcoming potentially dramatic disruption in transit projections of a Niagara GO train viability.
If RER service is eventually extended one day to West Harbour GO (e.g. RER Phase 2 during 2025-2035), then we could have a separate smaller efficient "Niagara Express" train, using West Harbour GO as a transfer station. The 15-min RER service would be immune to train delays at Welland Canal as a result, and the transfer time between two trains ("Niagara Express" Niagara-Hamilton and "GO RER" Hamilton-Toronto) would be no more than 15 minutes. Obviously, this requires that rail-rail grade separation between Aldershot and West Harbour, for full freight separation -- this is probably not something that will happen anytime soon. But from a generational long-term planning perspective, it could makes sense in the LRT era.
Certainly, it warrants a re-evaluation of the economic case of commuter service to St. Catharines/Niagara -- once the low incremental cost of getting Niagara Seasonals to stop in Hamilton is done -- and evaluating whatever increases from Hamilton being part of the Niagara route over the years --
as a result of Niagara route becoming a "3-major-downtowns" 2-way route. (potentially as early as 2016 simply by stopping an existing train!)
The economic answer could potentially be clearly apparent in less than 5 years, especially if the Niagara Seasonals stop in Hamilton by September 2016 schedule change (my current working guesstimate projection; rumor is things are waiting on CN) and allowing for a few years of familiarity ramp up period and reassignment of services (e.g. decrease in Hamilton 16 Express frequency during Niagara Seasonal weekends). It's worth noting that Union-to-passing-West Harbour typically takes less than an hour with the Niagara seasonal train -- faster than the 1h15min regular commuter trains to West Harbour, bringing it into territory competitive with the express GO buses.. The subsequent steps to do daily commuter would be more costly (infrastructural...) but this is a great initial opportunity to study the extent of ridership estimate disruption of adding the West Harbour GO stop.